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Early Look at Playoff Picture-Part 1

tarheelg

Well-Known Member
Sep 21, 2001
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Creedmoor, NC
Until we get this year's ADM numbers, it is futile to try to project exactly who will be seeded where (not even East-West split can be totally determined until the 2A/2AA split is done), but one thing we can start to pin down is which 64 teams will qualify for the playoffs. Here is the rundown conference by conference around the state in 2A:

Northeastern-Coastal: First place will come down to Northeastern vs. Hertford, Holmes is all but locked in to third, Bertie is looking good for a wild card if they can hold serve against the teams they should beat, last week Pasquotank was also looking like a wild card, but their loss at First Flight not only temporarily leaves them on the outside looking in, but puts First Flight in a position for a wild card if they can win one of their last four, best chance will be home against a Currituck team they lost to once

East Central: Very intriguing race for the top three spots in this league; even with Northside forfeiting their non-conference wins, they are still very much alive for first place, but both East Duplin and Croatan may have something to say about that, North Brunswick might stir things up if they knock off any of the above, and would be in a position for a wild card if they can beat SW Onslow and Dixon, neither of whom are mathematically eliminated but would both have to pull off huge upsets to make the playoffs

Eastern Plains: SW Edgecombe is clearly the on-paper favorite, still undefeated in mid-October, and they have games remaining at home against the teams that figure to be their stiffest competition, in Washington and Beddingfield, if SWE runs the table, then the battle for second will probably come down to Beddingfield and Washington, two teams that both played brutal non-conference schedules, Farmville Central is going to have a rough time contending for the top spot but could find themselves in the playoffs if they can pick up a couple of conference wins, best chances against North Johnston and North Pitt

Eastern Carolina: First place will come down to the game between Kinston and Greene Central, third place will come down to the game between Ayden-Grifton and Goldsboro, whoever comes in fourth among these two will most likely get a wild card berth, provided they take care of business against North Lenoir and South Lenoir

Three Rivers: It's always tough to figure out a split conference but even tougher when there is so much parody that there could be multiple ties, the power ratings point to Red Springs as the favorite in the 2A division of this conference but those same power ratings projected the Red Devils to beat Whiteville last week, which did not happen...whoever wins the Fairmont/South Columbus game this week will have a shot to take the top seed in 2A if they can also beat Red Springs, and/or if they can beat Whiteville

Four County: All four of the 2A teams are almost locks for the playoffs already with five wins. Clinton looks the strongest and already has wins over East Bladen and Midway, and will be heavy favorites in their next three games before playing Wallace-Rose Hill in what could be for the outright conference championship, though both are looking at being seeded as #1s in their respective playoff brackets, the East Bladen win over Midway will help the Eagles' playoff positioning and probably result in the Raiders facing a near impossible first round opponent

Northern Carolina: Bunn has been the on paper favorite here all season, loaded with size and speed, they dropped a couple of tough non-conference games but have looked dominant in recent weeks, but second through the bottom appears to be wide open, defending champ Roanoke Rapids has a good overall record, and would love to play spoiler again, but this year they travel to Bunn...that instant classic between Franklinton and South Granville last Friday could very well go along way toward settling third place in the conference, Southern Vance does not have a good record but they always have good athletes with game changing speed, Warren lost their best players from last year to graduation and also had a coaching change late in the game, these bottom four have all struggled in non-conference play, some against absolutely brutal competition, but could get into the playoffs if they can pick up three conference wins

Mid-State: Reidsville is the heavy favorite according to the power ratings, with in all likelihood, having Cummings being the only team standing in their way, behind those two, it appears that everybody else is battling for third, and outside of Carrboro, what an intriguing battle it could be every Friday night as Jordan-Matthews, Bartlett Yancey, and Graham all battle for third place and the last automatic playoff berth, a three way tie is possible if JM, BY, and Graham all go 1-1 against each other and 2-3 in conference, which would lead to a random draw, not for 1,2,3 in conference but whoever wins the draw would be in the playoffs, the other two would stay home, as wild card berths do not look too attainable for anybody at the bottom of this league based on overall records

PAC 6: Andrews looks dominant at the top, if they take care of the ball and avoid playing sloppy by limiting the turnovers and penalties, they probably will not even have a close game until at least the second round of the playoffs, great race for the other playoff spots though between all those teams from Randolph County: the game between Eastern Randolph and Randleman may be the game that decides second and third place, but don't count out Wheatmore and Providence Grove, either or whom could jump up and bite ER or Randleman if either stumbles, but neither would likely get a wild card, and would need to finish third in the league to make the playoffs, Trinity is also out to play spoiler and could sneak into the playoffs, if and only if they win at least two of their last four games, but three of those four are on the road

One other thing to remember: You are ineligible for the playoffs if more than three players get ejected for fighting over the course of a season, let alone in one game. If a brawl breaks out and more than three players from one team get tossed, then that team will play its last game on Nov. 6 even if they are 11-0
 
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Central Carolina: This league could turn into a mess of two way ties or a three way tie for first or second, as North Rowan has already beaten Lexington, and Thomasville, even though they won, did not dominate West Davidson in a manner the experts projected on paper, while East Davidson and Salisbury are still very much alive, as is the case in a couple of other leagues, the best way to make the playoffs here is going to be by finishing in the top three, not relying on a wild card berth


Rocky River: Monroe is way out front and most likely will not be challenged until at least the second round of the playoffs, Forest Hills' big win over Mount Pleasant last week gives them a great chance to finish second, but it's that time of year that Parkwood always seems to get on a roll, of course this year they have to travel to Forest Hills and Mount Pleasant, but two of those three will make the playoffs by the 2 & 3 seeds, and the other should get a wild card berth provided they take of business against West Stanly & CATA


Southern District 7: East Lincoln is the favorite, looking to repeat, again, they are riding a 23 game win streak, have won 32 of their last 33 games, looking for their third state championship in four years, where for the moment they are 51-2 on the field (they had to forfeit three non-conference wins two years ago) over the last four years, they have already beaten Lincolnton, and have Maiden at home, they are the king of this league until they get knocked off, the Lincolnton-Maiden game in three weeks figures to decide second place, but one can't help but wonder if Newton-Conover or an improved West Caldwell team could also figure into the top three for playoff automatic bids, it appears all of those teams, plus West Lincoln stillhave a good shot at the playoffs as wild cards, provided they do not slip up against Bunker Hill or Bandys


Western Piedmont: Carver figures to be at the top, with West Stokes appearing to be their toughest competition, with North Surry, Surry Central, and Forbush battling for that third automatic playoff spot in third place, Forbush has an easier road to a wild card with their non-conference wins, Surry Central has almost no hope at a wild card and would need to finish third or higher in league play to make the post-season, South Stokes has struggled and it would be a major upset if they beat any of the other teams in the conference


Big South: The best teams in this split conference are all in the 3A division; Huss figures to be below .500 in conference play but still get a 1 seed in the 2A playoffs, as Cramer & LKN Charter are struggling even more, of course one of those teams is assured of a wild card berth, and Cramer's win over LKN Charter last week should propel the Storm to the first postseason football playoff berth the in school's young history, even if they do not win another game, UNLESS the Knights win two conference games


South Mountain: Shelby is looking dominant so far this year, having a great chance to be undefeated going into the game with Crest for the outright conference championship, though both figure to be 1 seeds in their respective playoff brackets, Wild card berths appear to be in order for East Burke, and two out of three of the Draughn, East Rutherford and RS Central, Chase is bringing up the rear in the standings, but still a quality opponent capable of ruining playoff hopes if taken lightly


WNC Athletic: Franklin has essentially already clinched the 1 seed for the 2A division for playoff seeding unless there are multiple crazy upsets over the last four weeks, Smoky Mountain is 2 games ahead of Brevard in conference play and can clinch a wild card spot if they can beat the Blue Devils next week


Western Highlands: This conference is a mess when trying to figure playoff seeds, because of the parody at the top: Hendersonville, Polk, and Mountain Heritage all appear to be neck and neck close and we will have to wait until the last game to see what happens when Hendersonville visits Polk, who has lost to Mtn Heritage (and 1A division frontrunner Mitchell, both by 1 point) but the Wolverines could send the playoff seeds from this league for a loop if they beat the Bearcats, Owen is a program with great tradition but is going to have to run the table to even be in the discussion for a playoff spot, Madison is having a rough year, one more loss mathematically eliminates them from any playoff contention


Mountain Valley: Ashe already has a win over Wilkes Central, which means even if Wilkes Central runs the table to get to 10-1, 6-1 in conference, Ashe still wins the league if they can win three of their last four, Wilkes Central would also make the playoffs as a 2 seed (or jump to the 1 if they win out, and Ashe takes two losses), the other 2A teams here, West Wilkes and North Wilkes do not appear to be headed for the playoffs


And again, remember: You are ineligible for the playoffs if more than three players get ejected for fighting over the course of a season, let alone in one game. If a brawl breaks out and more than three players from one team get tossed, then that team will play its last game on Nov. 6 even if they are 11-0
 
Big South: The best teams in this split conference are all in the 3A division; Huss figures to be below .500 in conference play but still get a 1 seed in the 2A playoffs, as Cramer & LKN Charter are struggling even more, of course one of those teams is assured of a wild card berth, and Cramer's win over LKN Charter last week should propel the Storm to the first postseason football playoff berth the in school's young history, even if they do not win another game, UNLESS the Knights win two conference games

While that analysis was probably correct on Wednesday when you posted it, Friday night really turned the 2A picture on its head. Lake Norman Charter stunned Hunter Huss. Cramer with its win over North Gaston has probably clinched a playoff spot even if they don't win another game and are likely to be the #1 seed for the 2A; however, there are two wild, but possible, scenarios where the Storm could have the better overall record and still end up #2 or #3. :eek: The NCHSAA has revised the rule regarding #2 auto bid in split conferences; to qualify a team would need a winning percentage of 34% percent. Based on current standings and remaining games (see below), LKN Charter would need to win at least one more game and Hunter Huss would need to either beat Stuart Cramer or get two more wins to be eligible for playoffs.

Team Overall Conference Games Remaining
Stuart Cramer 5-3 2-2 HH / EG / SP
Lake Norman Charter 3-4 1-3 SP / Ash / NG
Hunter Huss 2-6 1-3 SC / FV / Ash

Hunter Huss must get the win over Stuart Cramer. Under this scenario (#1), if the Huskies, Storm and Knights go winless for the remainder of the season, Huss would be the 2A #1 by virtue of their win over the Storm who would be the #2 and despite having the worse record overall (3-8; 3-7; 2-5). o_O Should HH lose to SC, they probably will be out of the playoffs as victories against Forestview and Ashbrook are unlikely. Even though the Ashbrook game is a big rivalry and can yield unpredictable results, that win alone would not be enough.

Stuart Cramer can sew up the #1 2A slot with a win over Huss this Friday but this game is a toss up. While the Storm could upset East Gaston, that is unlikely. Unless South Point fails to show up for the game, Cramer won't get the W. Without another win, Cramer will finish 5-6 overall, 5-5 for playoff purposes, and 2-5 conference.

Lake Norman Charter is almost certain to get a big L against the Red Raiders and probably the Green Wave (although this depends on which Ashbrook team plays - Jekyll (A win) or Hyde (LKN win). The match up with North Gaston is a toss up. By the time these two teams meet, both will have been mauled by the South Point defense. If the Knights fail to defeat the Wildcats, they will not qualify for the playoffs.


There is a scenario (#2) where determining the 2A #1 could be difficult and involves a possible 3-way tie:
  • If Huss beats Cramer, loses to Forestview and Ashbrook > 3-8; 3-7; 2-5
  • AND Cramer loses to Huss, East Gaston, and South Point > 5-6; 5-5; 2-5
  • AND LKN Charter beats North Gaston, and loses to South Point and Ashbrook > 4-6; 4-6; 2-5

Huss defeats Cramer who defeated LKN Charter who in turn defeated Huss. This would probably require a drawing be done the last week of the regular season before the final games are played.

:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:
 
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