My Quick Attempt at 1A/1AA Football Bracketology

[Old Mountaineer]

Hmmmm....the best way to reduce split conferences would be go to fewer classes, not more.....so if they're going to 5 with purpose of cutting down splits, maybe they are looking at making one of the five classes for charter schools only.....and last time they went 20/30/30/20 in an effort to keep the very large former 1As away from the really small ones and the very small former 4As away from the really big ones....wonder if they would stick with this or go with different ratios, and either not have subdivided football playoffs in largest and smallest class, (or go back to only 32 making it, not 48 to cut out the 1st rd byes)

I saw a proposal by Simmons how 5A could possibly work using last year's ADM numbers. In his an others 5A & 1A playoffs would be 32 and 2A 3A & 4A would still be split into A and AA. Right now, the board cannot work on a 5A class because the bylaws require the association operate with four classes. So they meet next month then next spring if they pass new bylaws then they can start working on it. They have until March 2021 to release the next realignment.
Here is Simmons proposal if you haven't seen it and you're interested. I kinda wonder if he'll update it with the lastest adm numbers.
http://simmonsratings.com/realignment.htm

 

[tarheelg]

I saw a proposal by Simmons how 5A could possibly work using last year's ADM numbers. In his an others 5A & 1A playoffs would be 32 and 2A 3A & 4A would still be split into A and AA. Right now, the board cannot work on a 5A class because the bylaws require the association operate with four classes. So they meet next month then next spring if they pass new bylaws then they can start working on it. They have until March 2021 to release the next realignment.
Here is Simmons proposal if you haven't seen it and you're interested. I kinda wonder if he'll update it with the lastest adm numbers.
http://simmonsratings.com/realignment.htm

I glanced at it a while back and didn't love it....I was really hoping the next realignment would do something different with charter schools

 

[Old Mountaineer]

I glanced at it a while back and didn't love it....I was really hoping the next realignment would do something different with charter schools

Yeah I understand that, I always felt they were closer to private schools then public. But I doubt they'll do anything different with charters especially if they go 5A cause even with them you're only talking about 46 or so schools in 1A.

 

[tarheelg]

Yeah I understand that, I always felt they were closer to private schools then public. But I doubt they'll do anything different with charters especially if they go 5A cause even with them you're only talking about 46 or so schools in 1A.

I wouldn't be surprised if they do, either make one of the 5 classes all charters, and/or let there be split conferences with charters, which would limit travel for all, but let them have a separate playoff bracket and state championship so more true 1A schools have a level playing field

 

[KW23]

A Mitchell fan posted that he heard bear grass charter won't be participating in the playoffs this year....who will get in if they choose not to participate?

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

A Mitchell fan posted that he heard bear grass charter won't be participating in the playoffs this year....who will get in if they choose not to participate?

I think it's crazy they play 2 conference games and get an auto bid. The NCHSAA has to start taking things like that into consideration.

 

[tarheelg]

A Mitchell fan posted that he heard bear grass charter won't be participating in the playoffs this year....who will get in if they choose not to participate?

That's possible....teams can opt out of playoffs as long as you make that call before the brackets are released....I believe that means no team from their conference would make it, since the only other football playing school in their conference has an AMPR of 68 and won't be close to a wild card berth, opening up another wild card spot for a team on the bubble, like a Lakewood who lost to Union on Thursday, or maybe Cherokee, who has a bye this week

 

[DLS2004]

That's possible....teams can opt out of playoffs as long as you make that call before the brackets are released....I believe that means no team from their conference would make it, since the only other football playing school in their conference has an AMPR of 68 and won't be close to a wild card berth, opening up another wild card spot for a team on the bubble, like a Lakewood who lost to Union on Thursday, or maybe Cherokee, who has a bye this week

So Lakewood who is at 466 along with Murphy could get in on the bubble. bear grass charter 1A would be 1A or 1AA?

 

[tarheelg]

Bear Grass Charter would have been small 1A, just checked with somebody in that area who also heard they opted out, so I adjusted my projections above (on page 1 of this thread)....I put in Union to replace Lakewood....and I put in Cherokee to replace Bear Grass Charter....Lakewood could still get in, depending on what the computer thinks about their loss to Union....if that happens, then somebody else will be out, like maybe South Stanly if they lose to North Stanly, or Louisburg if they lose to Warren Co.....I really think the CSD/PLP winner will get in, loser will not....anyway, the major shuffle after the Bear Grass Charter opt out and me putting Cherokee in was North Duplin moving from the West to the East....which could switch right back if Cherokee does not make the playoffs

 

[TarVikes]

How does the playoff seedlings work? The top 48 teams in the AMPR make it?

 

[tarheelg]

How does the playoff seedlings work? The top 48 teams in the AMPR make it?

Not exactly.....most likely and sort of but there will almost always be a couple of teams outside the top 48 get in, and of course, a few inside the top 48 get left out.....because of certain conferences getting automatic bids....look at 3 Rivers....there are only two 1A teams in the league, and those 2 are at the bottom, so that auto bid will be a wild card and not seeded with conf. champions but those two teams' rankings are both well outside top 48, so that means whoever finishes 48 will not be a wild card (could still be in if an auto, and if that happens, then whoever's 47 wouldn't get in)....there's also the leap frog rule that says you cannot make the playoffs ahead of a team that you finished behind in the conference standings...so there's North Stokes with a ranking well inside the top 48, but they are going to finish 6th in conference, they can't get in unless all 5 teams ahead of them get in, with two auto bids at top, and then the others would all have to qualify for at large wild card based on maxpreps ranking....not looking good now for North Stokes with Bishop McGuiness ranked well outside of top 48 going into the final Friday night

 

[Eastcoastman1957]

I know, I know....if you look at some websites doing projections, they have Cherokee in the playoffs, and they might make it, but they have a bye week, and have lost four straight. I'm expecting someone below them to pass them (namely the winner of the Comm. Sch. of Davidson/Pine Lake Prep game)...also, Union could replace Lakewood if they beat them this week....Also, many projections out there may not include Winston-Salem Prep because they would not be in if the playoffs started today, but I am thinking they will beat Bishop McGuiness and get in.

-Remember Seeds 1-4 receive a 1st Rd bye
-AMPR shown in (x)

-My 1AA/1A cut line: between Mitchell Co. (smallest 1AA) & Gates Co. (largest 1A)
-In 2AA, my West/East cut line: between East Surry (easternmost team in West) & North Rowan (westernmost team in East)
-In 2A, my West/East cut line: between North Duplin (easternmost team in West) & Rosewood (westernmost team in East)

1AA West
Tier of 1s
1 East Surry (3) (need win over Mount Airy to stay in this tier)
2 Mitchell Co. (7)
3 Bessemer City (22) (needs win over Cherryville to stay in this tier)
----------
Tier of 2s
4 Mount Airy (8) (would jump to Tier of 1s with win over East Surry)
----------
Tier of 3s
5 Mountain Island Charter (13) (would move up to Tier of 2s with Jefferson Academy loss to Union Academy, would move up to Tier of 1s with win over Highland Tech and a Bessemer City loss to Cherryville)
----------
Tier of WCs
6 Swain Co. (10)
7 Polk Co. (11)
8 Avery Co. (25)
9 Starmount (28)
10 Union Academy (31) (would move up to in a Tier of 3s with win over Jefferson Academy; if that happens, Mtn Isl. Ch. would jump to Tier of 2s)
11 East Wilkes (32)
12 Comm. Sch. of Davidson (47) (need win over Pine Lake Prep and the rankings go their way to make this happen)

------------------------------

1AA East
Tier of 1s
1 Tarboro (1)
2 Holmes (5)
3 Princeton (6) (needs win over Rosewood to stay in this tier, or drop to Tier of 2s could pass Holmes with win)
4 Granville Central (17)
5 North Rowan (26)
6 East Carteret (54)
----------
Tier of 2s
7 Manteo (15)
8 North Stanly (38) (need win over South Stanly to guarantee spot in this tier)
----------
Tier of WCs
9 South Stokes (21)
10 Hobbton (30)
11 South Stanly (42) (could drop below Louisburg with loss, or possibly out of playoffs)
12 Louisburg (44) (need win over Warren Co., could pass South Stanly)

------------------------------

1A West

Tier of 1s

1 Robbinsville/Murphy winner (2/4) (must beat Murphy to stay in this tier)

2 Elkin (9)

3 Thomas Jefferson Academy (14) (must beat Union Academy to stay in this tier)

----------

Tier of 2s

4 Robbinsville/Murphy loser (2/4)

----------

Tier of WCs

5 Hayesville (19)

6 Winston-Salem Prep (20) (must beat Bishop McGuiness to make playoffs, could pass Hayesville)

7 Andrews (33)

9 Alleghany Co. (39)

10 Albemarle (41) (wouldn't hurt to get a win over Montgomery Central to stay in playoffs, could move up in rankings with win and pass some teams)

10 Union (48) (just guessing they wind up here after win over Lakewood on Thursday

11 Cherokee (46)

12 East Columbus/West Columbus winner (59/61) (winner gets auto wild card, loser out of playoffs)

-Notes: Lakewood could sneak back in, depending on rankings after other games get played

------------------------------

1A East
Tier of 1s
1 North Edgecombe (16)
----------
Tier of 2s
2 Rosewood (12) (can move up to Tier of 1s with win over Princeton)
3 Pamlico Co. (18)
4 Northampton Co. (29)
----------
Tier of WCs (These teams are so close together that any of them could slide up or down by one spot or more depending on what happens on Friday, whoever winds up in 7 & 10 spots are in a great spot to get to 3rd Rd if they can beat their 1st Rd opponent
5 Northside (23)
6 Washington Co. (24)
7 Gates Co. (27)
8 Southside (34)
9 South Creek (35)
10 North Duplin (36)
11 Perquimans Co. (40)
12 KIPP Pride (45)

Looks like West Columbus will be playing #5 seed. Murphy or Hayesville first round

 

[wncbowhunter]

Looks like West Columbus will be playing #5 seed. Murphy or Hayesville first round

Jeez ROAD trip...

Go Mountaineers

 

[davisdorm]

North Rowan east or west? Mitchell big or small??

 

[Eastcoastman1957]

From here it's 380 miles one way
WC won 1 game. That's tonight.

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

North Rowan east or west? Mitchell big or small??

If say North Rowan will go east, but Mitchell is 1aa.

 

[davisdorm]

Which comes first, North Rowan placed in the east and making Mitchell large in the west or Mitchell being large and North Rowan being placed in the East because the East needs more large schools?

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

Which comes first, North Rowan placed in the east and making Mitchell large in the west or Mitchell being large and North Rowan being placed in the East because the East needs more large schools?

Mitchell is the 2nd smallest 1aa team, in front of Gates. So to answer your question, Mitchell being large and North Rowan being placed east. Not so much because the East needs more large schools, more so another team West of North Rowan qualifying.

 

[davisdorm]

Thanks.

 

[Mbulld]

Just man up and play

 

[tarheelg]

Here are some adjustments I've made going on gut feelings with who gets and moves where after Friday's games.....Louisburg out is the big change


-Remember Seeds 1-4 receive a 1st Rd bye
-AMPR shown in (x)

-My 1AA/1A cut line: between Gates Co. (smallest 1AA) Lakewood (largest 1A)
-In 2AA, my West/East cut line: between East Surry (easternmost team in West) & North Rowan (westernmost team in East)
-In 2A, my West/East cut line: between Lakewood (easternmost team in West) & Union (westernmost team in East)

1AA West
Tier of 1s
1 East Surry (3)
2 Mitchell Co. (7)
3 Bessemer City (22)
----------
Tier of 2s
4 Mount Airy (8)
----------
Tier of 3s
5 Mountain Island Charter (13)
----------
Tier of WCs
6 Swain Co. (10)
7 Polk Co. (11)
8 Avery Co. (25)
9 Starmount (28)
10 Union Academy (31)
11 East Wilkes (32)
12 Comm. Sch. of Davidson (47)
------------------------------
1AA East
Tier of 1s
1 Tarboro (1)
2 Holmes (5)
3 Granville Central (17)
4 North Rowan (26)
----------
Tier of 2s
5 Princeton (6)
6 Manteo (15)
7 North Stanly (38)
----------
Tier of WCs
8 South Stokes (21)
9 Gates Co. (27)
10 Hobbton (30)
11 South Stanly (42)
12 East Carteret (54)
------------------------------
1A West
Tier of 1s
1 Robbinsville (2)
2 Elkin (9)
3 Thomas Jefferson Academy (14)
----------
Tier of 2s
4 Murphy (4)
----------
Tier of WCs
5 Winston-Salem Prep (20) (gut feeling on rankings)
6 Hayesville (19)
7 Andrews (33)
8 Alleghany Co. (39)
9 Albemarle (41)
10 Lakewood (43)
11 Cherokee (46)
12 West Columbus winner (61)
------------------------------
1A East
Tier of 1s
1 Rosewood (12)
2 North Edgecombe (16)
----------
Tier of 2s
3 Pamlico Co. (18)
4 Northampton Co. (29)
----------
Tier of WCs
5 Northside (23)
6 Washington Co. (24)
7 South Creek (35) (gut feeling on rankings)
8 Southside (34)
9 North Duplin (36)
10 Perquimans Co. (40)
11 Union (48) (gut feeling on rankings)
12 KIPP Pride (45)