Baseball 1A & 2A Playoff Bracketology (If bracket was released today)

Discussion in 'Open Sports Discussion & Resources Forum' started by tarheelg, Apr 22, 2018.

  1. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    And that RANKINGS thing is what gets people riled up. How do they come up with it? It is subjective just like any poll. Conference finish is a fact.

    Now split conferences do throw a monkey wrench in my point.
     
  2. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    If MaxPreps became transparent, then I think all of us, including coaches, could give our kids the best opportunity to be successful and have the greatest opportunity to be playoff eligible when it came to that time.
     
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  3. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Exactly.

    Should you schedule difficult non conference to make team better for conference or try and sprinkle in some "sure" wins to improve record so magical mystery machine's formula will spit out a higher ranking for you?

    I have no idea how mystery machine has so many teams from the conference I mentioned earlier ranked so highly. Their out of conference records are meh. Now those teams may indeed be that good but how does the machine know this to be a fact?
     
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  4. ColeridgeNC

    ColeridgeNC Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, hard to tell what the system likes the most.
     
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  5. 23Wolf

    23Wolf Well-Known Member
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    I think I understand how you came up with this and it looks good, but I have a question. How will West Lincoln get in over Lake Norman Charter and East Lincoln? They all tied for the 4th place in their conference and both (LNC and East) have better MaxPrep rankings. Just trying to figure this out.
     
  6. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    yes, Washington would easily get in this year if they were going by the criteria from football season, and with the format they're using next year that was recently announced (unless they change it again after football season this fall)
     
  7. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Refer to blog link above for entire statewide standings and all, but here's my final attempt before the final edition of the new rankings come out....I do look for a few slight changes within tiers (1s, 2s, Wild Cards), and there could be East/West changes if Madison in 2A and Union Academy in 1A take a huge jump in the rankings, but I'm not expecting it:

    1A West
    1st Rd: Seeds 1-8 receive a Bye
    24 Bessemer City @ 9 North Stanly
    23 Queens Grant Comm. @ 10 Rosman
    22 North Moore @ 11 Cherryville
    21 Highland Tech @ 12 North Stokes
    20 South Stokes @ 13 Mtn. Isl. Char.
    19 Andrews @ 14 Mitchell Co.
    18 Mount Airy @ 15 South Stanly
    17 Chatham Charter @ 16 Swain

    2nd Rd:
    24/9 winner @ 8 East Wilkes
    23/10 winner @ 7 Pine Lake Prep
    22/11 winner @ 6 Chatham Central
    21/12 winner @ 5 Polk Co.
    20/13 winner @ 4 Lincoln Char.
    19/14 winner @ 3 Uwharrie Char.
    18/15 winner @ 2 East Surry
    17/16 winner @ 1 Murphy

    1A East
    24 North Edgecombe @ 9 Falls Lake Acad.
    23 Lakewood @ 10 Northside
    22 Pender Co. @ 11 John A. Holmes
    21 Pamlico Co. @ 12 North Duplin
    20 Tarboro @ 13 Mattamuskeet
    19 Columbia @ 14 KIPP Pride
    18 Roxboro Comm. @ Gates Co.
    17 Oxford Prep @ Manteo

    2nd Rd:
    24/9 winner @ 8 Rocky Mount Prep
    23/10 winner @ 7 Louisburg
    22/11 winner @ 6 West Columbus
    21/12 winner @ 5 Rosewood
    20/13 winner @ 4 Riverside
    19/14 winner @ 3 Perquimans Co.
    18/15 winner @ 2 Bear Grass Char.
    17/16 winner @ 1 Voyager Acad.
     
  8. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Refer to blog link above for entire statewide standings and all, but here's my final attempt before the final edition of the new rankings come out....I do look for a few slight changes within tiers (1s, 2s, Wild Cards), and there could be East/West changes if Madison in 2A and Union Academy in 1A take a huge jump in the rankings, but I'm not expecting it:

    2A West
    32 North Wilkes @ 1 Rutherfordton-Spindale Central
    31 West Iredell @ 2 North Lincoln
    30 West Lincoln @ 3 North Davidson
    29 Wheatmore @ 4 Smoky Mountain
    28 West Stokes @ 5 Forbush
    27 Hibriten @ 6 Bunker Hill
    26 East Gaston @ 7 West Stanly
    25 Brevard @ 8 West Wilkes
    24 Mount Pleasant @ 9 Mountain Heritage
    23 Pisgah @ 10 Ledford
    22 Walkertown @ 11 Bandys
    21 Salisbury @ 12 South Point
    20 Lincolnton @ 13 North Surry
    19 East Rutherford @ 14 Franklin
    18 West Davidson @ 15 Anson Co.
    17 Wilkes Central @ 16 Fred T. Foard

    2A East
    32 Richlands @ 1 Whiteville
    31 Hertford Co. @ 2 North Lenoir
    30 East Montgomery @ 3 Randleman
    29 Bertie Co. @ 4 South Granville
    28 Clinton @ 5 Nash Central
    27 North Pitt @ 6 Midway
    26 Eastern Randolph @ 7 Croatan
    25 Northern Vance @ 8 First Flight
    24 SouthWest Edgecombe @ 9 NC Sch. of Sci. & Math
    23 Red Springs @ 10 West Craven
    22 Roanoke Rapids @ 11 Bunn
    21 East Duplin @ 12 Providence Grove
    20 South Lenoir @ 13 Currituck Co.
    19 Greene Central @ 14 North Johnston
    18 Reidsville @ 15 Spring Creek
    17 Fairmont @ 16 Dixon

    And again, remember my "final projections" are based on last week's rankings...if i happen to see them publish new updated rankings before releasing preliminary brackets, then I will go revise them again...and by the way, I do expect a few changes, for example, I wouldn't be surprised if one involves the team I follow most closely in South Granville, whose power rating was ever so slightly ahead of Nash Central, but last week Nash Ce played SW Edgecombe twice while SG played JF Webb twice...definitely helping Nash Ce's strength of schedule a little more...I'm not going to go take a stab at revising all 116 of these spots in 1A & 2A by guessing on the new rankings for every team in play, but just pointing out that a couple of moves, up or down a spot or 2 (or 3) are to be expected
     
  9. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    head to head tiebreaker in three way tie....WL beat EL twice and WL beat LNC twice....easiest tiebreaker to resolve in the history of tiebreakers...and before the change to seeding after football season, yes rankings mattered more than conference finish, but with the adjustment to the seeding criteria (which has already been tweaked for next year), for most teams in 2A this year, finishing 4th or higher in the conference is what punches your ticket to the playoffs...if my projections are correct, Madison will be the only team in 2A that's 4th or higher in their conference not in...and they are the one drawing the short straw because their ranking was lower last week than all other potential wild card/at large teams that also finished 4th in their conference
     
    49 tarheelg, May 6, 2018
    Last edited: May 6, 2018
  10. ColeridgeNC

    ColeridgeNC Well-Known Member
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    It appears North Moore will Leap at least South Stokes and move to 21 and South Stokes will drop to 22. Also Mitchell may move to 13 and Mountain Island drop to 14.

    Don't see many other possible changes when the new rankings come out. We shall see.
     
  11. bamapride22

    bamapride22 Well-Known Member
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    Looks like they updated rankings today. Does this change anything that has been posted before now?
     
  12. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    The NCHSAA has not yet updated their Adjusted Rankings, which are supposed to NOT take into consideration margin of victory....if the maxpreps website updates its rankings, that is the first step toward the state updating its rankings also, but the latest update i see on their page is still from Apr. 30
     
  13. ColeridgeNC

    ColeridgeNC Well-Known Member
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    So far, the adjusted rankings have not differed too much from the actual rankings. Updating the bracketology based on today's regular updates will still be more accurate than using last week's adjusted rankings in my opinion.
     
  14. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Yes, working on it right now, just a couple of changes so far, notably Pisgah jumping up 2 spots in 2A West, will publish update shortly
     
  15. ColeridgeNC

    ColeridgeNC Well-Known Member
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    Cool Thanks! Does Union Academy being above North Edgecombe in power ranking change anything? Have to think it puts Union Academy in and North Edgecombe out.
     
  16. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Projected Matchups (Based on May 6 Rankings on the Maxpreps website, BUT remember the NCHSAA will use an ADJUSTED Maxpreps Rankings, that are not supposed to take into account margin of victory)

    2A West

    1st Rd: Seeds 1-8 receive a Bye
    24 Bessemer City @ 9 North Stanly
    23 Mountain Island Charter @ 10 Rosman
    22 South Stokes @ 11 Cherryville
    21 Highland Tech @ 12 North Stokes
    20 North Moore @ 13 Mitchell Co.
    19 Andrews @ 14 Queens Grant Comm.
    18 Mount Airy @ 15 South Stanly
    17 Chatham Charter @ 16 Swain

    2nd Rd:
    24/9 winner @ 8 East Wilkes
    23/10 winner @ 7 Pine Lake Prep
    22/11 winner @ 6 Chatham Central
    21/12 winner @ 5 Polk Co.
    20/13 winner @ 4 Lincoln Char.
    19/14 winner @ 3 Uwharrie Char.
    18/15 winner @ 2 Murphy
    17/16 winner @ 1 East Surry

    1A East
    1st Rd: Seeds 1-8 receive a Bye
    24 North Edgecombe/SE Halifax @ 9 Falls Lake Acad.
    23 Pender Co. @ 10 John A. Holmes
    22 Lakewood @ 11 Northside
    21 Pamlico Co. @ 12 North Duplin
    20 Tarboro @ 13 Mattamuskeet
    19 Columbia @ 14 KIPP Pride
    18 Roxboro Comm. @ 15 Gates Co.
    17 Oxford Prep @ 16 Manteo

    2nd Rd:
    24/9 winner @ 8 Rocky Mount Prep
    23/10 winner @ 7 Louisburg
    22/11 winner @ 6 West Columbus
    21/12 winner @ 5 Rosewood
    20/13 winner @ 4 Riverside
    19/14 winner @ 3 Perquimans Co.
    18/15 winner @ 2 Bear Grass Char.
    17/16 winner @ 1 Voyager Acad.

    2A West
    32 North Wilkes @ 1 North Lincoln
    31 West Iredell @ 2 Rutherfordton-Spindale Central
    30 Wheatmore @ 3 North Davidson
    29 West Stokes @ 4 Smoky Mountain
    28 West Lincoln @ 5 Forbush
    27 Hibriten @ 6 Bunker Hill
    26 East Gaston @ 7 West Stanly
    25 Brevard @ 8 West Wilkes
    24 Mount Pleasant @ 9 Mountain Heritage
    23 Walkertown @ 10 Ledford
    22 Salisbury @ 11 Bandys
    21 Pisgah @ 12 South Point
    20 Lincolnton @ 13 North Surry
    19 East Rutherford @ 14 Franklin
    18 West Davidson @ 15 Anson Co.
    17 Wilkes Central @ 16 Fred T. Foard

    2A East
    32 Richlands @ 1 Whiteville
    31 Hertford Co. @ 2 North Lenoir
    30 East Montgomery @ 3 Randleman
    29 Clinton @ 4 South Granville
    28 Bertie Co. @ 5 Nash Central
    27 Eastern Randolph @ 6 Midway
    26 North Pitt @ 7 First Flight
    25 Northern Vance @ 8 Croatan
    24 SouthWest Edgecombe @ 9 NC Sch. of Sci. & Math
    23 Red Springs @ 10 West Craven
    22 Roanoke Rapids @ 11 Bunn
    21 East Duplin @ 12 Providence Grove
    20 South Lenoir @ 13 Currituck Co.
    19 Greene Central @ 14 Spring Creek
    18 Reidsville @ 15 North Johnston
    17 Fairmont @ 16 Dixon
     
    56 tarheelg, May 6, 2018
    Last edited: May 6, 2018
  17. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    I don't think so...Union Academy is a 4th place finisher....that North Edgecombe spot is for them or SE Halifax or whoever came in THIRD in that conference (how you could have not played a team in your conference even once, with whom you're tied for a playoff spot is beyond me but that's another story)....that league, like many other 1A leagues, will not get a 4th place team in.....of course there's always a chance that somebody (or multiple teams in that league opted out of the playoffs)...that's probably Union Academy's best chance to get into the playoffs....also if that happens, if whoever opted out is from east of US 15-501 or so, then Chatham Central would stay in the West bracket....if whoever opted out was from west of US 220, then that could push Chatham Central to the East bracket, and bump a lot of teams down one spot
     
    57 tarheelg, May 6, 2018
    Last edited: May 6, 2018
  18. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Also, still not 100% sure on a couple of tiebreakers....4th place in Southwestern Foothills 2A...was a three way tie record wise between West Iredell, Patton, and East Burke....but WI was 3-1 among the teams tied, EB 2-2, and RLP 1-3...thinking WI should get the wild card spot as the 4th place team....then EB won a game in the conference tournament and made me uncertain, whoever gets that spot should be 31 seed in 2A West....also over in the PAC 7 1A....Mtn. Isl. Char. & Queens Grant tied for 2nd, split in regular season, but MIC has a win over #1 Pine Lake Prep, I was thinking that locked them into the tier of #2s, but then they lost to QG in the conference tournament, some folks are saying QG goes in the tier of 2s, in this case I did switch them in what's posted above but my original post of Mtn Isl Char at 13 and Mitchell at 14 could be what we see on Monday, whichever of the two becomes a wild card should be the 23 seed in 1A West
     
  19. Thunder_struck8712

    Thunder_struck8712 Well-Known Member
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    Will the NCHSAA use rankings that include conference tourney games in them?
     
  20. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Yes, they should, since the conference tournaments figure into the website maxpreps rankings.....conference tournaments didn't matter when going by 22 game record for playoff qualifying and seeding....but in this year's format, the 22 game record plays no role
     
  21. ColeridgeNC

    ColeridgeNC Well-Known Member
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    But do conferences without 3 automatic bids get their #3's seeded, I thoughjt unless it's an automatic bid, they are seeded as an at large. This system is so confusing.
     
  22. Thunder_struck8712

    Thunder_struck8712 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah does a team that finishes 3rd in a conference of 3 teams get in as an at large over over teams in 4th place in a 8 team conference? Thats the confusing thing imo.
     
  23. MHS-88

    MHS-88 Well-Known Member
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    So East Surry gets the #1 seed because they had a conf tourney and won it? Looks like Murphy got hosed if that is true.
     
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  24. Thunder_struck8712

    Thunder_struck8712 Well-Known Member
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    That's the SMC's fault for not having a conference tourney. Imo now that conference tourney champions don't get seeded behind 1 seeds, whats the point of even having a tournament? There is no incentive hardly for someone to use up pitching in a conference tourney.
     
  25. Thunder_struck8712

    Thunder_struck8712 Well-Known Member
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    Also teams in split conferences really get the shaft in this new playoff format imo. Splits need to go.
     
  26. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Is this softball?? I haven't done projections there, saw somebody mention it earlier....but if it's a straight 1A conference, I believe the answer is yes...unless that team may have chosen to opt out of the playoffs
     
  27. Thunder_struck8712

    Thunder_struck8712 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah it is softball. I think the same will happen in soccer as well. Based off the projections I have seen for softball it will happen. Absolute joke imo.
     
  28. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    This year's format was designed originally to avoid this, BUT then they made one tweak too many after the football fiasco of a couple of split conference teams getting a bye in 1A & 4A. that were really bad (a 1-10 team in 4A got seeded in tier of 1s, with a bye week and 2nd round home game because they won the 4A division of the conference when the only other 4A school was 0-11)...I like the .500 or 3rd place or higher rule to get in the tier of 1s, but I don't like it that all 3s get in first, then all 4s, that not only hurts some split conference teams but also teams in a really competitive straight 1A or straight 2A conference....when this year's original seeding system was put in place in May 2017, it was supposed to be about the computer rankings and not strictly overall record, but also guaranteeing a certain number of spots per conference...and then in football there was one league in 2A where the winner went on the state finals but the second, and third places team both had maxpreps ranking well below 64, but that league was guaranteed three spots, so a couple of teams got left out of the playoffs that were ranked 63 & 64, even though one had an 8-3 record I believe, all they had to do was require at least a .500 to get any automatic bid from a conference but instead, they decided to take all potential wild card third place finishers (including third overall in split conferences), all 3rd place teams are now locked in 1A & 2A, then take as many 4th place teams as it takes as wild cards to fill out the bracket....in 2A it's possible that a couple of 5th place finishers could make it, depending on how the split conferences shake out, but looks like that's not happening, in 1A many 4th place teams get left out because of only taking 48 instead of 64....they announced last week that's changing in some sports but not all
     
  29. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    First, keep in mind, i just went off the new maxpreps website rankings today, which influence them of course, but are not the same as the adjusted rankings the state will use when the brackets are released...Murphy could still get #1 in West...but say East Surry does get 1 and Murphy gets 2, then sure you could blame the SMC in hindsight for not having a tournament, but some seasons, it would have worked out the other way where East Surry could have been punished for playing in a conference tournament due to strength of schedule...this year it happens that North Stokes & Mt Airy have very good ranking numbers so whenever those teams play each other it mutually helps all of them's strength of schedule...also, don't forget it's tough for the SMC to think about a conf. tourn. when they have so many teams, with some of the Little Smoky schools not fielding baseball and causing them to have to start regular season conference games so early to get them all in...had the SMC scheduled a conf. tourn., they might have had to cancel it to let all of the teams get their make up games from a lot of rain or snow postponements.....now again, this might have wound up getting cancelled but I see that Rosman scheduled Polk in the last week and if I read it right, they left that game tied?? (can't believe they did that), but just the fact they played each other helped both of them's strength of schedule...one game won't matter as much in a sport where you play 20 or more games as in football where you play 10 or 11, but merely showing up to play a team highly regarded in the rankings help your strength of schedule for the computer rankings
     
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  30. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Regarding incentive for the conference to have a tournament, I completely agree with you....Why burn out your pitching a couple of days before the playoffs?? If you need to break a tie, just have a one game playoff with the team you're tied with...for those leagues that do, it might be out of tradition...or remember that teams that win the tournament still get an automatic playoff berth...Carrboro in the Mid-State 2A/Central Tar Heel 1A baseball only split conference finished 6th in the regular season, and ALMOST made the playoffs, upsetting two teams by one run in the tournament that they lost to twice in the regular season, before losing a heartbreaker in the championship game to a team they beat in the regular season...there's still that magical Cindarella aura that you get from college basketball of the chance for a team to get hot at the right time, come out of nowhere, shock the world, (or shock the state in this case), and extend their season...while bursting somebody else's bubble that will not make the field of 64 (or 68 now in NCAA Basketball....or 48 in 1A)
     
  31. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Yes, but there are only a couple of conferences that large....in 1A the Smoky Mountain & Yadkin Valley....and in 2A, the Central Carolina....I have Reidsville and Fairmont also as 3s in the 2A East bracket....not because their overall conference gets 3 bids (even though they are large split conferences), and not because they're from split conferences per se, but because they finished third overall in the conference, and received the second automatic bid from their division, but they did not finish 2nd overall in the conference....I did not give Richlands a 3 from the Coastal 8 1A/2A because Croatan got the 1 and Dixon got the 2 from that league, and they only get 2 auto bids from the 2A division
     
  32. ColeridgeNC

    ColeridgeNC Well-Known Member
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    Agree, splits need to go. But I understand geographically, it's hard sometimes.
     
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  33. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    ER Kidd, after your comment the other day talking about smelling seabreezes, I laughed at all of my previous projections that had ER going to Croatan or First Flight or Currituck....but with North Pitt's win over North Johnston last week, they jumped ahead of ER on the maxpreps website rankings...if that jump holds on the adjusted rankings, then maybe ER will get to play at Midway in 1st Rd instead of single digit miles from the ocean....of course, when you play at Midway (and many other places in that part of the state) and the wind is wrong, you might smell something that'll make you wish you could have driven a couple of extra hours to smell the seabreeze....bring cans of Raid to spray down the dugout trash cans (not the high test wasp & hornet killer, the much cheaper ant & roach killer will do)...never seen so many flies in my life as the day we went to Midway...of course some of those were at the McDonalds in Benson we stopped at on the way but that's another story
     
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  34. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    I'm pleased there being no 2A/3A splits this cycle
     
  35. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Of course...I've been to Eastern Randolph once for football and the smell on the visitor side was worse than a hog pen
     
  36. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    tarheelg, out here in the country we call that smell...
    Money!!! :p

    Also the hour 47 to Midway would sure beat the time zone jump of two year back to First Flight or three and a half hours to Croatan.

    Does NCHSAA know that AP exams are going on when they make out these long trips in the middle of week?
     
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  37. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    With rain last week of regular season this is what caused ER beginning on Thursday of that week until Thursday of this past week playing 5 games in 8 days. Two regular season, two in conference tourney and one useless tiebreak game after all that.
     
  38. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Yes, I know all about smelling that money....i guess schools are more than welcome to opt out of the playoffs if AP exams are a concern
     
  39. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Location:
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    I haven't done softball projections because the school where I work (South Granville) is undefeated and will be #2 (possibly #1, depending on how far, if at all North Johnston falls in rankings after finally losing a game, to 3A power Topsail, not expecting them to fall, they had a huge lead in the actual power rating) in the East and know we'll have home games for many rounds as long as they keep winning, I would go watch them more often but I'm the stat guy for baseball and we're normally playing at the same time...I'm also married with twin boys so when there's not a baseball game, I try to be home when I can.....cap tip to those Lady Vikings though...the program has been in the state finals four of the last five years, won it all twice, was a few outs away from a 3peat last year before losing two heartbreakers in state finals Game 2 & Game 3 to Parkwood on unearned runs...last year's team had 4 freshmen starting, this year's team has a freshman pitcher, only 2 seniors, all of those freshmen from last year are now sophomores (plus a couple of more I think that didn't start last year)
     
  40. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Think you misunderstood my point.

    Not opt out just take ALL things school related into account when sending a team on a possible 9 hour round trip (ER to First Flight 2016) in the middle of the week.

    If you knew me you would know I wish for all student athletes to excel at both sports and education.
     
    tarheelg and Sportsnut17 like this.

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