Baseball 1A & 2A Playoff Bracketology (If bracket was released today)

[tarheelg]

Updated every day or two, most recent update after hearing of Mtn Heritage forfeit for Madison from Apr. 13, and after updated adjusted maxpreps rankings from Apr. 30

1A & 2A Conference Standings & Bracketology

Click again (or bookmark and refresh the page) every day or two for updates as scores roll in every day this week

 

[Sportsnut17]

Tarheelq,

That’s a lot of work, thanks for doing it.

 

[tarheelg]

Tarheelq,

That’s a lot of work, thanks for doing it.

Thanks, though I spared you the conference standings from around the state....can find them (and updated bracketology over the next two weeks) here

 

[york1313]

Do they still seed according to a 22 game schedule? Or is it solely based upon MaxPrep rankings?

 

[Eagles/Trojans13]

How you finish in your conference and then your max preps rankings. They seed all the 1st place teams and 2nd place teams and sometimes 3rd place teams by maxpreps rankings. Once you get your automatic qualifiers, you are then seeded solely on maxpreps rankings.

 

[york1313]

Ok. Thanks for the info. Seems like they change the selection process every year.

 

[tarheelg]

Yes, it has changed for four years in a row, easy on the surface but very complicated when getting into the idiosyncrasies, especially when split conferences get in the picture, I probably don't have it down 100%, and of course, technically things can change every time a conference game is played....and ANY game can affect the maxpreps rankings, but they're only released once a week, kept checking for them today but never saw an update

 

[ColeridgeNC]

Yes, it has changed for four years in a row, easy on the surface but very complicated when getting into the idiosyncrasies, especially when split conferences get in the picture, I probably don't have it down 100%, and of course, technically things can change every time a conference game is played....and ANY game can affect the maxpreps rankings, but they're only released once a week, kept checking for them today but never saw an update

The update is up on the NCHSAA site now.

 

[thekidd12]

Yes, it has changed for four years in a row, easy on the surface but very complicated when getting into the idiosyncrasies, especially when split conferences get in the picture, I probably don't have it down 100%, and of course, technically things can change every time a conference game is played....and ANY game can affect the maxpreps rankings, but they're only released once a week, kept checking for them today but never saw an update

Maxpreps says they update on Tuesdays and Fridays...

Must brew their super secret sauces up on Mondays and Thursdays?

 

[tarheelg]

Maxpreps itself updates Tuesdays and Fridays yes, but what matters for the playoffs are the Adjusted rankings pulled by our state association that do not take into account margin of victory

 

[thekidd12]

Maxpreps itself updates Tuesdays and Fridays yes, but what matters for the playoffs are the Adjusted rankings pulled by our state association that do not take into account margin of victory

Ah...

Where on NCHSAA web site do you find those?

Never mind...

I found them finally.

 

[mh333]

Does anybody know if the central tarheel conference is a split conference or a 3 team 1a conference? i know they have 7 1a teams according to the realignment but i guess just not for baseball. I know they play some 2a schools and its part of their conference record but max preps has them listed as a conference. just curious

 

[tarheelg]

The 3 teams in the Central Tar Heel 1A that have baseball are playing with the Mid State 2A as a split conference....the 1As are playing each other twice and the 2As once, so they only have 11 conference games, while the 2As will have 15 conference games by playing the 1As once and the other 2As twice...conference tournament supposed to be next week, with seeding determined by conference record winning percentage....don't forget that also determines which four teams overall can qualify for the playoffs....there will be a 1A champion, a 2A champion, and then 2 others will make it, based on conference finish

 

[NWWatchdog]

Newest projections from the News and Observer have Chatham Central out of the Central Tar Heel 1A going West rather than East. That could shift things around a bit, putting North Stanly (or Uwharrie, depending on who is #2 seed from that conference) as a 9 seed and playing 1st round rather than 8 seed and getting a bye first round.

 

[tarheelg]

Yes, I believe their editor is projecting what will happen if the maxpreps rankings hold and there are no upsets.....mine show what it would look like if the playoffs started right now, making no assumptions about who wins and loses....I update mine every day or two when final scores roll in every day or two and the new rankings get published once a week...I believe there will be some moving and shaking in many places, which often will affect who goes East/West....what some people may not realize is that almost every conference game that gets played can impact the playoff picture....because of split conference situations, it is possible that two 1A teams playing each other can determine whether Randleman goes East or West in 2A....it's possible that two 2A teams playing each other could determine whether Chatham Central goes East or West in 1A, the suspense is killing me, as the rain has washed away almost every scheduled game for 3 days in a row, hoping for a whole slew of scores to roll in on Thursday & Friday to clear up some of the picture

 

[ncball04]

Murphy might take over the #1 seed in the West now after Bishop upset East Surry last night.

 

[MHS-88]

Murphy might take over the #1 seed in the West now after Bishop upset East Surry last night.

Wow, didnt see that happening. Murphy is indeed #1 in new maxpreps poll. Still have 4 games left tho, and a big one with Rosman tomorrow.

 

[york1313]

Since the 22 game seeding is no longer a thing, do conference tournament games have an impact on rankings? MaxPreps, adjusted MaxPreps, etc?

 

[NWWatchdog]

Since the 22 game seeding is no longer a thing, do conference tournament games have an impact on rankings? MaxPreps, adjusted MaxPreps, etc?

I would think they impact Maxpreps rankings. Some conferences don't have a tournament (Smokey Mtn). Conference Tournaments allow a lower team within conferences to gain an automatic bid, which can shift the field some...but if that happens those teams are seeded below the automatic #1 & #2 seeds, mainly affecting the wild card teams.

FWIW, the News & Observer playoff projections have the cutoff line shifting farther east for 1A. Original projections had the cutoff at North Moore in the West, Chatham Central in the east. They now are projecting both Chatham Central and Chatham Charter to the west, with West Columbus and Voyager being the first teams to the east. Haven't seen an update from tarheelg to see if he also has this.

 

[tarheelg]

Yes, one would assume so

 

[mh333]

As of this morning... East carteret lost last night so they are now out of the mix. Cape hatteras, mattamuskeet, and columbia have a chance to have a big cluster by the end of the week. If mattamuskeet and columbia finish 2/3 or vice versa then one more at large team (pamlico) by my figuring would get in. IF cape hatteras finishes 2 or 3 then i have that conference getting four teams in with either columbia or mattamuskeet being the last team in. Other than in the albemarle conference where 2,3,4 could go either way with gates edenton and manteo and the north central where roxboro and oxford could flip 3/4 but those teams are all in no matter what, everything else seems pretty set minus the conference tournaments

 

[tarheelg]

with all of its problems, one good thing of this year's playoff seeding thing is that 3-4 doesn't matter, they're all wild cards unless they're from a conference with 9 teams or more

 

[tarheelg]

Also, East Carteret COULD still get back in the playoffs, but it is doubtful that their conference will send two teams into 1A, so if EC gets in, Pender probably would not, unless they both finish in the top four of the conference overall

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

My understanding is a team that finishes 3rd or 4th in a conference gets a bid before someone that finishes 5th. So looking at softball, South Stokes is in 3rd in a conference of only 3 teams with a 1 and 18 record. Would they get in befor someone that is 5th in a conference of 8 teams with a higher maxpreps rating?

 

[NWWatchdog]

My understanding is a team that finishes 3rd or 4th in a conference gets a bid before someone that finishes 5th. So looking at softball, South Stokes is in 3rd in a conference of only 3 teams with a 1 and 18 record. Would they get in befor someone that is 5th in a conference of 8 teams with a higher maxpreps rating?

That happened in basketball this past season. East Surry boys were 5th in the loaded NW1A (4 teams were ranked in the top 6 in Maxpreps rankings). ES was ranked 21st in entire state and were 14-11 but didn't make the playoffs because teams with losing records and worse Maxpreps rankings got in solely because they were the 3rd or 4th place team in their respective conferences. The playoff format was much better during the fall when they seeded all conference champs and automatic qualifiers, then seeded all wildcards solely based on Maxpreps rankings.

 

[thekidd12]

That happened in basketball this past season. East Surry boys were 5th in the loaded NW1A (4 teams were ranked in the top 6 in Maxpreps rankings). ES was ranked 21st in entire state and were 14-11 but didn't make the playoffs because teams with losing records and worse Maxpreps rankings got in solely because they were the 3rd or 4th place team in their respective conferences. The playoff format was much better during the fall when they seeded all conference champs and automatic qualifiers, then seeded all wildcards solely based on Maxpreps rankings.

I realize that some good teams are left out of playoffs every year simply because their conferences are tougher. Happened back in the stone age when I played and only ONE team went each year..

Completely disagree with wildcards being seeded or picked by Maxpreps. That would completely devalue finishing well inside conference. And while I am sure East Surry had a fine basketball team I have seen Maxpreps keep some teams ranked high even after several losses to teams ranked, in their system, well below them.

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

How is conference finish even worth looking at if teams that finish last in a 3 and 4 team conference get in because of they finished there by default pretty much. This is no different than awarding McDowell or South Caldwell an auto bid every year just because one beat the other. The system is still broken. If you want to value conference play then use conference win percentage.

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

That eliminates some issues. Of course there will still be some. System will always have flaws but right now it's worse than it was imo.

 

[NWWatchdog]

I realize that some good teams are left out of playoffs every year simply because their conferences are tougher. Happened back in the stone age when I played and only ONE team went each year..

Completely disagree with wildcards being seeded or picked by Maxpreps. That would completely devalue finishing well inside conference. And while I am sure East Surry had a fine basketball team I have seen Maxpreps keep some teams ranked high even after several losses to teams ranked, in their system, well below them.

I don’t completely disagree with you. I think there would be more validity to the Maxpreps rankings if they were transparent and showed everyone HOW they arrive at their rankings. That would allow a more unbiased argument. The biggest problem I have is a system that automatically awards births to undeserving teams solely because of conference finish.

 

[NWWatchdog]

Tarheelg - thanks for all the time you've put in to gathering the info for the 1A and 2A projections!

 

[Eagles/Trojans13]

I have the 4A bracket ready, but there are still a few games that could change the entire bracket so I'm holding off until the morning.

 

[thekidd12]

I don’t completely disagree with you. I think there would be more validity to the Maxpreps rankings if they were transparent and showed everyone HOW they arrive at their rankings. That would allow a more unbiased argument. The biggest problem I have is a system that automatically awards births to undeserving teams solely because of conference finish.

See I can't trust a computer that puts three teams from one conference in top 11 in state in 2A. That very well may be true but the team they have at 11 is FIFTH in that conference. Fifth in your own conference and three and four above them are ranked lower. Also their number one team in 2A is SECOND in that conference!!! There are holes in the Maxpreps system and nobody can fix because nobody knows what their system consists of.

 

[ColeridgeNC]

See I can't trust a computer that puts three teams from one conference in top 11 in state in 2A. That very well may be true but the team they have at 11 is FIFTH in that conference. Fifth in your own conference and three and four above them are ranked lower. Also their number one team in 2A is SECOND in that conference!!! There are holes in the Maxpreps system and nobody can fix because nobody knows what their system consists of.

The solution to baseball playoffs is simple.

Drop to 32 teams. Predetermined sites, #1 in Conference X plays #3 in Conference Y. #2 in Conference A plays #3 in Conference C. Try to reduce travel in the first round with that system. Allow conference tournament winners not already in, in as wild cards. So #1 in this conference might get a wild card, ect.

Then play best of three the whole way.

 

[thekidd12]

The solution to baseball playoffs is simple.

Drop to 32 teams. Predetermined sites, #1 in Conference X plays #3 in Conference Y. #2 in Conference A plays #3 in Conference C. Try to reduce travel in the first round with that system. Allow conference tournament winners not already in, in as wild cards. So #1 in this conference might get a wild card, ect.

Then play best of three the whole way.

Your first point probably will not happen. That cat is out of the bag, so to speak.


Second point is similar to what they did around late 90s early 00s. Like the cutting down on travel aspect.


Then you still have what the poster above was concerned about with conference finishes not being as important as what computer somewhere out in interweb thinks of team. I personally think conference finish is very important. Back in the stone age when I played,my team finished second in conference twice before finally winning my senior year. At that time only one team went to state.

We always thought we were good. Oh that year we finally made playoffs? Finished second in state.

 

[ColeridgeNC]

Your first point probably will not happen. That cat is out of the bag, so to speak.


Second point is similar to what they did around late 90s early 00s. Like the cutting down on travel aspect.


Then you still have what the poster above was concerned about with conference finishes not being as important as what computer somewhere out in interweb thinks of team. I personally think conference finish is very important. Back in the stone age when I played,my team finished second in conference twice before finally winning my senior year. At that time only one team went to state.

We always thought we were good. Oh that year we finally made playoffs? Finished second in state.

Good points. If you had your way, how would you seed? Just curious about other ideas. It needs to be fair and equitable, but it should also have balance. Good teams who play in tough conferences need a way in as well.

 

[thekidd12]

Good points. If you had your way, how would you seed? Just curious about other ideas. It needs to be fair and equitable, but it should also have balance. Good teams who play in tough conferences need a way in as well.

As I have said or implied, I am old. If a team is in a tough conference then they have to do well in conference to qualify. Being in a "tough" conference is subjective and does not guarantee success. In football everyone is ALWAYS talking about how soft Reidsville conference slate is and yet they are always right there at end. Randleman, man it hurts to type this, usually does very well, ugh, and PAC6/7 not considered a "tough" conference.

Top 4 from each conference should go. State should be divided into 4 single elimination zones cutting down on travel time and school costs. Yes that may mean some of these so called "tough" conference teams will eliminate each other but you have to play all to win it.

Have four winners of each zone play 2 out of 3s in semis and finals.

 

[ColeridgeNC]

As I have said or implied, I am old. If a team is in a tough conference then they have to do well in conference to qualify. Being in a "tough" conference is subjective and does not guarantee success. In football everyone is ALWAYS talking about how soft Reidsville conference slate is and yet they are always right there at end. Randleman, man it hurts to type this, usually does very well, ugh, and PAC6/7 not considered a "tough" conference.

Top 4 from each conference should go. State should be divided into 4 single elimination zones cutting down on travel time and school costs. Yes that may mean some of these so called "tough" conference teams will eliminate each other but you have to play all to win it.

Have four winners of each zone play 2 out of 3s in semis and finals.

I like that. I can could get behind it. Good plan.

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

Predetermined seeds are awful. The playoffs were absolutely terrible when the state did that.

 

[smithn]

When are the brackets released? Yep I see Washington is 5th in their conference but has a high ranking. Based on what the criteria is for next year they would pass a lot of teams on the 3/4 seed line in other conferences. They may be at the bottom of the at large teams. The split 1a/2a conference hurts everyone else also.

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

Monday.

The conference thing hurts alot of teams. As i mentioned why should South Stokes get in with no conference wins and 1 overall win just because they're 3rd in a conference of 3 teams in softball?