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Updated Projections with new ADM numbers

I don’t think the Montgomery Schools will exist once the new alignment occurs. Montgomery Central will open in 2020, combing East and West High Schools. Looking at the current enrollment of the two schools, that’ll put the Montgomery Central Timberwolves at an ADM of 1100 students.
 
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Scroll to the very bottom of the blog post link and it is explained....but I will try again right here: First, I could be wrong, but if I'm interpreting this year's new playoff qualifying correctly, Nash Central, along with Anson, Red Springs, and maybe one I cannot remember are "buried"; or stuck below a team in their conference final standings that they lost to in a head to head matchup (NC to FC, Anson to FH, RS to Fairmont) who has a much lower ranking and will not get in...in the Ea. Pl. Conf., Farmville is credited with a 3rd place finish, and in the playoff qualifying format they used last year for winter and spring sports with these same standings, Farmville Central would have been a lock to make the playoffs as a wild card as the 3rd place finisher, then after all the 3rd place finishers across the state got in as wild cards, they would come back and start taking 4th place finishers, by adjusted maxpreps ranking, so the few (if any) that got left out would have lower rankings....Like last year, they said this year that no 4th place team will get in ahead of a 3rd place team; what's different this year is that not all 3rd place teams are automatically going to get wild cards for being 3rd place, instead when East Rutherford and Eastern Randolph and Franklin and Whiteville (3rd place teams with high rankings) cross over as wild cards in the playoffs, the 4th place teams in their respective conferences move up to the teams eligible for a wild card....and basically yes, most teams whose maxpreps ranking is 64 or higher will get in, but not all, because for Nash Central, Anson, and Red Springs, that conference loss to a team that is not going to make the playoffs is going to keep them out of the playoffs, because of the rules about not being able to leap frog anybody in your conference; that is you can't make the playoffs ahead of anybody who finished ahead of you in your final conference standings....if FC & NC are tied, FC gets the edge because they won head to head, FC 3rd, NC 4th, FC's ranking right now is a 78, not going to get them in...NC's best hope is if FC has to forfeit either of their two conference wins for some reason (same with Anson/Forest Hills in Rocky River and Red Springs/Fairmont in Three Rivers)...while Washington getting in does not violate this rule, as everybody ahead of them in conference would have gotten in before them

This time of year is really exciting, and TarHeel, the work you’re putting into your posts makes it just that much better. Thanks!
 
I don’t think the Montgomery Schools will exist once the new alignment occurs. Montgomery Central will open in 2020, combing East and West High Schools. Looking at the current enrollment of the two schools, that’ll put the Montgomery Central Timberwolves at an ADM of 1100 students.
Good to know....I'm about to start a Way Too Early Look at the 2021 Realignment....hadn't heard about EM & WM combining....figured out both looked like 1A....but together they could be 3A, depending on next year's numbers
 
Good to know....I'm about to start a Way Too Early Look at the 2021 Realignment....hadn't heard about EM & WM combining....figured out both looked like 1A....but together they could be 3A, depending on next year's numbers

Ground has been broken for about a year if I remember correctly. I thought it would open next year (2019-20), but folks are telling me that it’ll be 2020-21.

It’ll be located in Troy, right next to the campus of Montgomery Community College.
 
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Especially if they go back to 25/25/25/25 in 2021....it's next year's number that will get used for realignment.....usually not the exact numbers that come out in Oct/Nov for football but most schools' numbers won't change but so much after that....going back to 1A definitely a possibility if you take another huge drop next year....if you stay 2A, don't be surprised if the 2A conferences in the area look different....I'm expecting Ledford, North Davidson, and Oak Grove to go to 3A at next realignment, and McMichael and either Rockingham or Morehead to come down to 2A....Carver might also be headed for 1A, and there may be some more changes I didn't notice....Eastern Randolph looked a lot lower than usual today too, but you know they'd put Reidsville with the other schools in their county....question then is do they keep them with BY, Graham, Cummings, DSA, NCSSM, Carrboro? I look for them to put those 3 in Rockingham Co. with some other Triad area schools, possibly TW Andrews, if Atkins goes up to 3A, you could see a conference with Reidsville, McMichael, the other Rock. Co. school coming down (can't remember if Morehead or Rock. with low numbers this year), with West Stokes, Walkertown, and/or Andrews....and they could put the two Surry schools in Mtn Valley 1A/2A, (or maybe not?), probably still enough 2As in Randolph & Davidson counties to have 2 conferences, anyway I'm not exepcting to see Reidsville in the Mid-State in 2021, Jordan-Matthews could go back in Mid-State or in PAC...you could see the 2A Davidson schools & 2A Randolph schools together in a huge conference, or keep two leagues in that region...you could see South Rowan go to the Rocky River with Mt Pleasant, Forest Hills, Anson, West Stanly, CATA.....don't be surprised if East Montgomery goes back to 1A....anyway, just rambling with possibilities....wondering where we will go at South Granville....hoping to avoid those non-football schools of NCSSM & DSA....we were with them for 8 years before the current cycle started, i'm hoping for four more years of having a league where everybody has a football team
No chance Rockingham County goes 2a.

Also, Graham and Cummings will probably not exist in 2021.
 
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No chance Rockingham County goes 2a.

Also, Graham and Cummings will probably not exist in 2021.
Yes, it's McMichael & Morehead that are both in the 900s and very likely headed for 2A in 2021 Realignment unless they see a large increase next year
 
Ground has been broken for about a year if I remember correctly. I thought it would open next year (2019-20), but folks are telling me that it’ll be 2020-21.

It’ll be located in Troy, right next to the campus of Montgomery Community College.
I'll take your word for it; not too familiar with the area; never been to Troy, never been to Mt. Gilead, never seen Town Creek Indian Mound; though I heard cool things in 4th & 8th grade NC History a while back....Montgomery Co. is one of the places where I've admired from afar with high school sports and I've heard of the scenic views driving, and we have friends who lives there and loves it...I think they live in the Uwharrie National Forest and work at WM if I remember correctly....I also had a different friend from college who went to EM, has worked at North Moore and Union Pines, can't remember where he is now...anyway, I had never been to Montgomery Co. until about six weeks ago, for a high school football road game, with South Granville, traveling to Anson.....had also never been through Anson or Richmond before, but crossed off 3 counties on my list in one day....only 9 left I've never been through I believe, mostly in the mountains
 
Montgomery county is very unique. Sand and peaches on the east side, then cross the river and it’s mountians and water. Beautiful county, good ole hard working Americans who will anything for you, but don’t take no bleep. Go back some time and enjoy the mountains and the lakes down there.
 
Scroll to the very bottom of the blog post link and it is explained....but I will try again right here: First, I could be wrong, but if I'm interpreting this year's new playoff qualifying correctly, Nash Central, along with Anson, Red Springs, and maybe one I cannot remember are "buried"; or stuck below a team in their conference final standings that they lost to in a head to head matchup (NC to FC, Anson to FH, RS to Fairmont) who has a much lower ranking and will not get in...in the Ea. Pl. Conf., Farmville is credited with a 3rd place finish, and in the playoff qualifying format they used last year for winter and spring sports with these same standings, Farmville Central would have been a lock to make the playoffs as a wild card as the 3rd place finisher, then after all the 3rd place finishers across the state got in as wild cards, they would come back and start taking 4th place finishers, by adjusted maxpreps ranking, so the few (if any) that got left out would have lower rankings....Like last year, they said this year that no 4th place team will get in ahead of a 3rd place team; what's different this year is that not all 3rd place teams are automatically going to get wild cards for being 3rd place, instead when East Rutherford and Eastern Randolph and Franklin and Whiteville (3rd place teams with high rankings) cross over as wild cards in the playoffs, the 4th place teams in their respective conferences move up to the teams eligible for a wild card....and basically yes, most teams whose maxpreps ranking is 64 or higher will get in, but not all, because for Nash Central, Anson, and Red Springs, that conference loss to a team that is not going to make the playoffs is going to keep them out of the playoffs, because of the rules about not being able to leap frog anybody in your conference; that is you can't make the playoffs ahead of anybody who finished ahead of you in your final conference standings....if FC & NC are tied, FC gets the edge because they won head to head, FC 3rd, NC 4th, FC's ranking right now is a 78, not going to get them in...NC's best hope is if FC has to forfeit either of their two conference wins for some reason (same with Anson/Forest Hills in Rocky River and Red Springs/Fairmont in Three Rivers)...while Washington getting in does not violate this rule, as everybody ahead of them in conference would have gotten in before them

I feel bad for Red Springs. They have a fine football team and really deserve to be in the playoffs. They have a couple of losses this year that you have to scratch your head at, and that's why they'll be starting basketball season next week.
 
I feel bad for Red Springs. They have a fine football team and really deserve to be in the playoffs. They have a couple of losses this year that you have to scratch your head at, and that's why they'll be starting basketball season next week.
Yes, saw part of the film for their game against Vance Co., was expecting them to make it....saw Anson in person and thought they'd easily make it
 
Also, Graham and Cummings will probably not exist in 2021.[/QUOTE]


I forgot about Alamance county’s plan for a new school. It’ll be interesting to see what fate is decided for Graham and Cummings. Years ago, I couldn’t have imagined those two schools on football’s skid row.
 
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Graham and Cummings... What is hs football coming to lol? Cummings used to be one of the most entertaining teams in this state regardless of year and Graham introduced my child and teenage coaching mind to the double wing offense in the early 2000s. They were really something, taking out a great Tville team before winning 1A state and moving up to 2A...
 
Update....Roanoke Rapids just won at Bunn 27-14.....this puts them in three way tie for third in conference and with their ranking, definitely in the playoffs.....no major changes with all 64 teams, just a shift toward to the bottom of 2AA East, with Vance Co. now on the outside looking in (hoping for a Maxpreps Miracle) and RR, at 12, and everybody who was at 12-15 before drops a spot, now 13-Richlands, 14-First Flight, 15-Washington, 16-Carrboro....also bear in mind that Washington & Carrboro have unfinished business with a game this week....if either were to lose (or Oak Grove against Salisbury), the door could be open for Vance Co. to jump back in.....if Vance jumps back in with Oak Grove out, that moves either Smoky Mountain or SW Edgecombe to small 2A, state might have to do a draw to see who goes since those two have the same ADM number with today's update....if Vance jumps back in over Carrboro or Washington, the cut line should not change, like it didn't when RR replaced Vance....Lexington is now on the bubble as the lowest wild card
 
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According to scorestream....Salisbury beat Oak Grove tonite 14-7......does that change anything??

Salisbury didn’t play Oak Grove tonight. Salisbury hosted a 3rd round soccer playoff game (beating north Davidson 1-0) They will still play tomorrow night.
 
According to scorestream....Salisbury beat Oak Grove tonite 14-7......does that change anything??
it could....this is maxpreps ranking issue that we will not know 100% until the new rankings come out with the brackets....there's a chance that Oak Grove falls out of the playoffs and Vance Co. comes back in....OR maybe the loss doesn't hurt their ranking as bad since Salisbury is ranked higher....I would say keeping it close at 14-7 helps, but remember margin of victory is not part of the equation for the Adjusted Rankings
 
it could....this is maxpreps ranking issue that we will not know 100% until the new rankings come out with the brackets....there's a chance that Oak Grove falls out of the playoffs and Vance Co. comes back in....OR maybe the loss doesn't hurt their ranking as bad since Salisbury is ranked higher....I would say keeping it close at 14-7 helps, but remember margin of victory is not part of the equation for the Adjusted Rankings
"...margin of victory is not part of the equation for the Adjusted Rankings".

This is absolutely not true. Margin of victory, or lack thereof, is an internal part of the rankings. If a team wins by "too much" it is penalized.
 
"...margin of victory is not part of the equation for the Adjusted Rankings".

This is absolutely not true. Margin of victory, or lack thereof, is an internal part of the rankings. If a team wins by "too much" it is penalized.
But a loss does impact
 
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