Updated 1a west playoffs with cutoff line

[KW23]

Small 1a
Wild card Winston Salem Prep (3-2) 152 adms
Wild card Andrews(4-2) 207 adms
Wild card Christ the King (4-3) 321 adms
1 seed MVC Elkin(6-1) 352 adms
2 seed TJA (5-0) 355 adms
1 seed Smoky Robbinsville (6-0) 375 adms
2 seed Smoky Murphy (5-1) 466 adms
1 seed Mitchell (5-0) 489 adms

1aa schools
1 seed Mount AIry (5-0) 509 adms
3 seed Community school of davidson(4-2)514adms
Wild Card North Moore (3-2) 518 adms
2 seed North rowan(4-1) 531 adms
Wildcard East Surry(4-1) 588 adms
Wild Card Polk County (3-2) 614 adms
1 seed Pine Lake Prep (6-0) 657 adms
1 seed North Stanly (5-0) 669 adms

Community school of Davidson took MIC's place. And Christ the King went on a win streak to get in.

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

Looks good man.

 

[KW23]

Thanks Im confident those will be the 16 to get in with just 1 week left. Just waiting on adms.

 

[PolkSports.com]

Hey there. Don't usually post here, but a couple of notes:

1) ADMs are here: https://www.nchsaa.org/sites/default/files/attachments/Football ADM 2020-21.pdf

2) It's possible that Polk County may be seeded as a conference champion and Mitchell as a wild card. Assuming Mitchell beats Avery, it will come down to a coin flip: https://polksports.com/football/pol...-flip-could-decide-how-wolverines-are-seeded/

I assume a coin flip will also break the tie in Southern Piedmont 1A, where Pine Lake Prep and Thomas Jefferson could both be unbeaten but not face each other.

 

[KW23]

Those adms are last year's

 

[PolkSports.com]

Correct, but my understanding is that they're also going to be used this season, which is why the file name is labeled 2020-2021. Due to COVID-19 impact, ADMs from this year are basically not being used.

 

[BK13T-$]

They used last years adms for realignment. Not sure if they will use them for playoffs

 

[PolkSports.com]

The problem this academic year is that with so many kids attending class remotely or in-person only on certain days, it's almost impossible to produce an accurate ADM figure. Given that, NCHSAA officials have said in past press conferences with media this year that they wouldn't use this year's ADMs for anything. I've not specifically asked about this year's playoffs, so definitely could be wrong. But would be really surprised if they don't use last year's numbers due to the difficulties of producing an accurate count this year.

 

[KW23]

That was my understanding too but never saw it officially anywhere good article about coin flip

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

The coin flip sucks. I really wish these 2 got to play, its always a good game, and it wont likely happen again for a while. Hopefully Mitchell will go big and they can meet up and decide who is better.

 

[Sportsguy5555]

CSD is 5-1 not 4-2...

Pine Lake 6-0 vs CSD 5-1 is a big time rivalry game. Should be a good one next Friday.

 

[KW23]

I know they are 5 and 1 but I put there predicted conference record in parenthesis bc that's what matters not there overall record. Seeding doesn't really matter that much either. It's all about matchups...and how the random draws are done. For instance if robbinsville and murphy end up on same side of bracket. I'm sure Mitchell fans would rather lose the coin flip(to Polk) and play at elkin and then at Tja....instead of hosting murphy and then robbinsville lol. I know I would. Thats how my alleghany Trojans made it to final 4 in 2014...we avoided murphy and robbinsville as long as we could lol

 

[Mbulld]

I thought it was going to be a 3 game playoff

 

[KW23]

3 games then state championship

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

I know they are 5 and 1 but I put there predicted conference record in parenthesis bc that's what matters not there overall record. Seeding doesn't really matter that much either. It's all about matchups...and how the random draws are done. For instance if robbinsville and murphy end up on same side of bracket. I'm sure Mitchell fans would rather lose the coin flip(to Polk) and play at elkin and then at Tja....instead of hosting murphy and then robbinsville lol. I know I would. Thats how my alleghany Trojans made it to final 4 in 2014...we avoided murphy and robbinsville as long as we could lol

Gotta get thru them eventually. At this point, I think the Mitchell community is over being a 4th round team. We are ready for a ship. Of course the Mountaineers could be destined to be the next West Montgomery; always good, but yet, always that tough warmup game before the state final.

 

[Old Mountaineer]

Hey there. Don't usually post here, but a couple of notes:

1) ADMs are here: https://www.nchsaa.org/sites/default/files/attachments/Football ADM 2020-21.pdf

2) It's possible that Polk County may be seeded as a conference champion and Mitchell as a wild card. Assuming Mitchell beats Avery, it will come down to a coin flip: https://polksports.com/football/pol...-flip-could-decide-how-wolverines-are-seeded/

I assume a coin flip will also break the tie in Southern Piedmont 1A, where Pine Lake Prep and Thomas Jefferson could both be unbeaten but not face each other.

One difference in a coin flip between Mitchell & Polk and one between TJ & Pine Lake if both scenarios come to fruition . The loser of the Mitchell/ Polk coin flip is a wild card and probably loses the chance of having any playoff game at home, the only way a wild card team can have a home game is if two wild card teams upset an automatic qualifier and the higher seed wild card team gets a second round game at home. But in the TJ / Pine Lake coin flip one will be a #1 automatic qualifier and the other a #2 aq still with a chance to have a first round game at home.

 

[Supersave23]

https://www.nchsaa.org/sites/default/files/attachments/2020-21_Generic_Playoff_Process.pdf

Here is what I have found for NCHSAA's plan to Playoff Bracketing this year.

 

[PolkSports.com]

One difference in a coin flip between Mitchell & Polk and one between TJ & Pine Lake if both scenarios come to fruition . The loser of the Mitchell/ Polk coin flip is a wild card and probably loses the chance of having any playoff game at home, the only way a wild card team can have a home game is if two wild card teams upset an automatic qualifier and the higher seed wild card team gets a second round game at home. But in the TJ / Pine Lake coin flip one will be a #1 automatic qualifier and the other a #2 aq still with a chance to have a first round game at home.

Good point. Depending on where the ADM line falls, all of these teams could get seeded before the wild cards in 1AA:

* Northwest 1A champ
* WHC winner
* North Stanly
* North Rowan (looks like they have 2 seed locked up even if they lose this week)
* Pine Lake Prep (1 or 2)

So the WHC wild card, in 1AA, might be able to draw no higher than the sixth seed.

 

[ObserveAndReport]

Community school of Davidson took MIC's place. And Christ the King went on a win streak to get in.

Not that I really feel bad for them, but MICS pretty much got screwed by the COVID schedule. Drew the entire top of the conference and none of the bottom teams, while Christ the King had almost the opposite. Weird year when you can beat a team by 60 and they get in the playoffs over you because you don’t play the same teams for your conference record.

 

[KW23]

So true

 

[Old Mountaineer]

Good point. Depending on where the ADM line falls, all of these teams could get seeded before the wild cards in 1AA:

* Northwest 1A champ
* WHC winner
* North Stanly
* North Rowan (looks like they have 2 seed locked up even if they lose this week)
* Pine Lake Prep (1 or 2)

So the WHC wild card, in 1AA, might be able to draw no higher than the sixth seed.

Seems to me after you get the 16 teams in each East and West that for this last season before the new system starts they could have done like in the last few years and used the adjusted Maxpreps rankings which involves strength of schedule to seed the teams seems more fair then using a random drawing. Example let's say using the predictions at the start of this thread came true which would mean that Mitchell beat Avery then won the coin toss and Robbinsville beat Murphy so you have Mitchell, Robbinsville and Elkin the #1 automatic qualifier spots so they have the drawing and Elkin gets the #1 seed in the bracket but in the Maxpreps rankings Mitchell is #1 Robbinsville is #6 but if they beat Murphy will at least probably take Murphy's spot at #4 and Elkin who is right now #11 is the #1 seed. Nothing against Elkin they may on the field end up better than both but right now just looking at rankings and str just seems the better way to go then a drawing

 

[Mopar forever]

I hate the coin flip crap .... use points scored or points allowed ....anything else Don’t let the hard work of kids and coaches ride on “luck” of a flip. That’s stupid to me. I mean it could really help the wolverines but dang it I like to earn what I get in life ...... but that’s just ME tho

 

[Slasher Killer]

I hate the coin flip crap .... use points scored or points allowed ....anything else Don’t let the hard work of kids and coaches ride on “luck” of a flip. That’s stupid to me. I mean it could really help the wolverines but dang it I like to earn what I get in life ...... but that’s just ME tho

It could be worse.. we beat Forbush and North Iredell to the 3A playoffs in 1985 by drawing straws 🤣 I agree 100% though.

 

[Thunder_struck8712]

It could be worse.. we beat Forbush and North Iredell to the 3A playoffs in 1985 by drawing straws 🤣 I agree 100% though.

I believe East Surry, Mount Airy, and Elkin had to draw straws to break a 3way tie in 2005.

 

[Sportsnut17]

I believe East Surry, Mount Airy, and Elkin had to draw straws to break a 3way tie in 2005.

It used to be a rather common occurrence.

 

[realjoejr]

Mount Airy, East Surry, and Walkertown had to draw straws in 2016.

 

[TD-FridayNight]

Mount Airy, East Surry, and Walkertown had to draw straws in 2016.

I remembered that but couldn't remember the year.

 

[TD-FridayNight]

I remembered that but couldn't remember the year.

They ended the regular season 3-way tie 5-1, East Surry Beat Mount Airy, Walkertown Beat East Surry, and Mount Airy beat Walkertown. Playoffs East Surry lost to Mount Airy in the 2nd round. Walkertown lost to East Montgomery in the 2nd round and Mount Airy lost to West Montgomery in the 4th round.
MaxPrep 2016

School Name	*W-L	*Pct.	*PF	*PA	W-L	Pct.	PF	PA	Strk
Mount Airy	5-1	0.833	196	61	13-2	0.867	552	163	1 L
East Surry	5-1	0.833	143	78	9-4	0.692	325	275	1 L
Walkertown	5-1	0.833	191	145	7-6	0.538	288	400	1 L

 

[Tarboro Vikings fan 2018]

Nick stevens from highschool OT confirmed the nchsaa would be using 2019 adms for the playoffs this year. So Murphy and Robbinsville should both be 1a.

 

[TD-FridayNight]

Nick stevens from highschool OT confirmed the nchsaa would be using 2019 adms for the playoffs this year. So Murphy and Robbinsville should both be 1a.

Mount Airy & East Surry 1AA

 

[Tarboro Vikings fan 2018]

Mount Airy & East Surry 1AA

And mitchell. How the granite bears look this season td? Are they 2017 good?

 

[Gentle Knight]

Nick stevens from highschool OT confirmed the nchsaa would be using 2019 adms for the playoffs this year. So Murphy and Robbinsville should both be 1a.

Was that ever in question?

 

[Tarboro Vikings fan 2018]

Was that ever in question?

A lot was up in the air about weather they'd use 2020 adms or not. I'm glad they aren't using adms from this year.

 

[Gentle Knight]

2019 Adms are being used but the cutoff line can still change

 

[Gentle Knight]

Murphy and Robbinsville safely in 1A though

 

[TD-FridayNight]

And mitchell. How the granite bears look this season td? Are they 2017 good?

Young with only 6 seniors. looking to be a much better team next year. JV team went undefeated a lot of good varsity moving up I think.

 

[Old Mountaineer]

And mitchell. How the granite bears look this season td? Are they 2017 good?

Mitchell has played 1A in '18 then 1AA in '19 with basically the same adm it all depends on who gets in. With this year's system and fewer teams it's looking more like 1A. You'd have to have a scenario were one of the projected 1AA not getting in something like My Airy losing to East Surry and not getting a wild card then a lower adm school then Mitchell getting the wild card instead.

 

[KW23]

Mitchell will be small a unless a team opts out or something. The 8 teams listed above are shoe ins...unless somehow north Moore loses to Chatham central. Thats the only maybe game left for the 8 teams with more adms above them not to clinch a playoff spot

 

[Old Mountaineer]

Hey there. Don't usually post here, but a couple of notes:

1) ADMs are here: https://www.nchsaa.org/sites/default/files/attachments/Football ADM 2020-21.pdf

2) It's possible that Polk County may be seeded as a conference champion and Mitchell as a wild card. Assuming Mitchell beats Avery, it will come down to a coin flip: https://polksports.com/football/pol...-flip-could-decide-how-wolverines-are-seeded/

I assume a coin flip will also break the tie in Southern Piedmont 1A, where Pine Lake Prep and Thomas Jefferson could both be unbeaten but not face each other.

This 21-25 realignment is just messed up with this system I can't believe not one person on that board didn't say this is stupid. Just noticed that 2A Draughn with an adm of 630 is dropping to 1A. Polk isn't the only school that got screwed some got worse. Read an article today from last December were the athletic director of East Carteret was furious and probably still is about them being moved from 1A to 2A from the article... “I think it’s ridiculous,” East Athletic Director Daniel Griffee said. “No matter what formula they used to break these divisions down, we are not a 2A-sized school, and that is unfortunate. It’s crazy.”
Their 2019 adm was 534 and that includes over 40 students from the Marine Science & Technology Early College High School. Two 2A schools near them has 706 and 774.
I assume they appealed but from looking at the first draft and the final one I might be wrong but I don't think they changed one school if true then no one won their appeal.

 

[Mitchell county mountie]

Mitchell will be small a unless a team opts out or something. The 8 teams listed above are shoe ins...unless somehow north Moore loses to Chatham central. Thats the only maybe game left for the 8 teams with more adms above them not to clinch a playoff spot

I believe KW is right here. With the short season, and the selection process it's fairly easy to predict who is in or not. Now, of course, there's still one game left, and anything could happen, but I feel Mitchell is "safely" in 1a this year. God what a gauntlet the 1a west will be. All with a 50% chance the Mountaineers will no home game, riding on a coin flip...