CalPreps & Massey - Final 8

[GrizzlyDevil]

I was curious how the final 8 teams stacked up on these two sites:

CalPreps

	2A RANKING	RATING	SOS	OPP W%
#1	1 - MAIDEN	35.5 - MAIDEN	+3.0 - MAIDEN	56.8% - WRH
#2	2 - R'VILLE	34.6 - R'VILLE	+2.3 - SHELBY	56.0% - SHELBY
#3	3 - SHELBY	33.1 - SHELBY	-0.1 - WRH	51.5% - MAIDEN
#4	5 - EAST SURRY	28.2 - EAST SURRY	-1.4 - R'VILLE	50.8% - EAST SURRY
#5	8 - WRH	24.6 - WRH	-2.9 - EAST SURRY	49.6% - N'EASTERN
#6	9 - N'EASTERN	24.5- N'EASTERN	-9.5 - N'EASTERN	48.05% - R'VILLE
#7	10 - PRINCETON	21.6 - PRINCETON	-10.3 - ST PAULS	48.03% - PRINCETON
#8	11 - ST PAULS	19.5 - ST PAULS	-12.3 - PRINCETON	42.5% - ST PAULS

Massey

	2A RANKING	RATING	SOS	2A OFF RANK	2A DEF RANK
#1	1 - SHELBY	35.64 - SHELBY	8.07 - SHELBY	1 - WRH	2 - MAIDEN
#2	2 - R'VILLE	35.04 - R'VILLE	7.16 - MAIDEN	2 - SHELBY	5 - R'VILLE
#3	4 - MAIDEN	32.23 - MAIDEN	4.30 - R'VILLE	4 - R'VILLE	6 - SHELBY
#4	7 - EAST SURRY	26.02 - EAST SURRY	1.63 - WRH	7 - PRINCETON	7 - EAST SURRY
#5	8 - N'EASTERN	25.83 - WRH	-3.51 - N'EASTERN	8 - MAIDEN	12 - N'EASTERN
#6	10 - WRH	23.77 - N'EASTERN	-4.61 - ST PAULS	11 - ST PAULS	28 - ST PAULS
#7	12 - PRINCETON	20.68 - PRINCETON	-5.19 - EAST SURRY	12 - N'EASTERN	29 - PRINCETON
#8	13 - ST PAULS	18.53 - ST PAULS	-8.97 - PRINCETON	13 - EAST SURRY	30 - WRH

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

If you take into account each team's 1-8 ranking throughout all 9 categories from the two sites, you end up with this combined ranking average for the remaining 8 teams:

1 - Shelby = 2.00
2 - Maiden = 2.22
3 - Reidsville = 2.89
4 - WRH = 4.22
5 - East Surry = 4.89
6 - N'Eastern = 5.67
7 - Princeton = 6.89
8 - St Pauls = 7.22

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Game Projections:

CalPreps
S by 1 = #1 Shelby 35 - #4 Reidsville 34
M by 2 = #3 Maiden 28 - #2 East Surry 26

P by 1 = #1 Princeton 35 - #5 St Pauls 34
NE by 4 = #3 Northeastern 38 - #10 Wallace-Rose Hill 34

Massey
S by 3 = #1 Shelby 38 - #4 Reidsville 35
M by 6 = #3 Maiden 30 - #2 East Surry 24

P by 5 = #1 Princeton 42 - #5 St Pauls 37
NE by 1 = #3 Northeastern 41 - #10 Wallace-Rose Hill 40

Combined Outcome
Shelby by 2
Maiden by 4

Princeton by 3
Northeastern by 2

 

[daagoob]

Nice work, it’s pretty clear the teams out west are a slight bit better and battle tested. Playing against 0 win Ptank and 1 win Manteo in our conference really pulled our sos down. I figured it would be higher with 3a Greenville Rose (win) still playing after a couple big upsets.

 

[Maiden Creek]

I was really surprised what the overall NC Max Preps rankings did after the games last Friday.

Maiden moved up 1 spot after beating Salisbury who was right behind us in their rankings.
Reidsville jumped up 6 spots…passing Shelby…after their win over Hendersonville.
Shelby moved up 2 spots after their win over East Gaston.
East Surry jumped up 22 spots after their win over Monroe.
WRH jumped up 6 spots…passing NE…after their win over East Duplin.

Tells me….the East Surry win was truly the biggest upset!…at least in the calculator that max preps uses.

But we all thought Maiden would lose…well….except me and Grizz!….and a couple other posters!
I’m still scratching my head on why those other posters picked Maiden. 😁

 

[Maiden Creek]

Surprised that Massey has WRH’s offense ranked the highest of the remaining teams!

That Wing T is rolling! ….do what?😜

 

[daagoob]

Surprised that Massey has WRH’s offense ranked the highest of the remaining teams!

That Wing T is rolling! ….do what?😜

Same but I wasn’t going to post that. Hopefully Grizz can break it down

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Surprised that Massey has WRH’s offense ranked the highest of the remaining teams!

That Wing T is rolling! ….do what?😜

I don't see anywhere that Massey explains what he put into getting the rating...I'm sure his formulas are a protected secret...it has to be some kind of "how many points you put up" versus "the strength of the defense you put it up against". The only thing weird about that is special teams/defensive touchdowns...I don't see anyway that he would be able to differentiate those points.

Some perspective on what we do know:

WRH offense isn't just the top of the remaining teams...it is the top offense in 2A period.

#1 in NC is Rolesville with a rating of 57.67 = 100 Overall Offense

2A Top 10
1 - WRH #15 NC = 48.02
2 - Shelby #16 NC = 47.71
3 - Hendo #19 NC = 46.99
4 - Reidsville #21 NC = 46.61
5 - Salisbury #24 NC = 45.58
6 - Monroe #25 NC = 45.54
7 - Princeton #35 NC = 42.46
8 - Maiden #44 NC = 41.21
9 - Washington #45 NC = 41.18
10 - Whiteville #47 NC = 40.88
------
11 - St Pauls #49 NC = 40.26
12 - Northeastern #52 NC = 39.74
13 - East Surry #65 NC = 38.30

Lowest Offense in 2A = Jordan Matthews #396 = 2.07
Lowest Offense in NC = Lejeune #399 = -4.33

For the Defense:

#1 in NC is Hough with a rating of 28.51

2A Top 10
1 - Monroe #35 NC = 16.79
2 - Maiden #44 NC = 15.69
3 - Salisbury #45 NC = 15.64
4 - Burns #57 NC = 13.86
5 - Reidsville #65 NC = 13.10
6 - Shelby #71 NC = 12.60
7 - East Surry #72 NC = 12.39
8 - East Duplin #86 NC = 10.33
9 - West Lincoln #87 NC = 10.20
10 - Whiteville #95 NC = 9.27
------
12 - Northeastern #103 NC = 8.70
28 - St Pauls #172 NC = 2.94
29 - Princeton #173 NC = 2.89
30 - WRH #180 NC = 2.48

Lowest Defense in 2A and NC= Heide Trask #399 = -27.28

 

[daagoob]

I don't see anywhere that Massey explains what he put into getting the rating...I'm sure his formulas are a protected secret...it has to be some kind of "how many points you put up" versus "the strength of the defense you put it up against". The only thing weird about that is special teams/defensive touchdowns...I don't see anyway that he would be able to differentiate those points.

Some perspective on what we do know:

WRH offense isn't just the top of the remaining teams...it is the top offense in 2A period.

#1 in NC is Rolesville with a rating of 57.67 = 100 Overall Offense

2A Top 10
1 - WRH #15 NC = 48.02
2 - Shelby #16 NC = 47.71
3 - Hendo #19 NC = 46.99
4 - Reidsville #21 NC = 46.61
5 - Salisbury #24 NC = 45.58
6 - Monroe #25 NC = 45.54
7 - Princeton #35 NC = 42.46
8 - Maiden #44 NC = 41.21
9 - Washington #45 NC = 41.18
10 - Whiteville #47 NC = 40.88
------
11 - St Pauls #49 NC = 40.26
12 - Northeastern #52 NC = 39.74
13 - East Surry #65 NC = 38.30

Lowest Offense in 2A = Jordan Matthews #396 = 2.07
Lowest Offense in NC = Lejeune #399 = -4.33

For the Defense:

#1 in NC is Hough with a rating of 28.51

2A Top 10
1 - Monroe #35 NC = 16.79
2 - Maiden #44 NC = 15.69
3 - Salisbury #45 NC = 15.64
4 - Burns #57 NC = 13.86
5 - Reidsville #65 NC = 13.10
6 - Shelby #71 NC = 12.60
7 - East Surry #72 NC = 12.39
8 - East Duplin #86 NC = 10.33
9 - West Lincoln #87 NC = 10.20
10 - Whiteville #95 NC = 9.27
------
12 - Northeastern #103 NC = 8.70
28 - St Pauls #172 NC = 2.94
29 - Princeton #173 NC = 2.89
30 - WRH #180 NC = 2.48

Lowest Defense in 2A and NC= Heide Trask #399 = -27.28

Y

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

If I use Massey's Off and Def ratings...and I use the rating range specifically between the top 2A and bottom 2A team...I can calculate, as a matter of percentage, where the teams fall on a 0-100 overall scale.

In other words...if someone made a video game for NC 2A Football teams...here would be our overalls:

94 Ovr - 99 Off - 90 Def = Shelby
94 Ovr - 97 Off - 92 Def = Reidsville
91 Ovr - 85 Off - 98 Def = Maiden
84 Ovr - 100 Off - 68 Def = Wallace-Rose Hill
84 Ovr - 79 Off - 90 Def = East Surry
82 Ovr - 82 Off - 82 Def = Northeastern
78 Ovr - 88 Off - 68 Def = Princeton
76 Ovr - 83 Off - 69 Def = St Pauls

This may connect more with the younger crowd...

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Y

Y? haha...I thought you wanted me to break it down??

 

[daagoob]

Y? haha...I thought you wanted me to break it down??

Lol 😂 I’m not sure where this came from. I’m sorry Grizz. I had put a post but it must have got deleted

 

[blackbulldog]

Great breakdown down!!

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Simmons is out now:

#1 - R - 140.3 - 32nd hardest SOS
#2 - M - 139.9 - 22nd hardest SOS
#3 - S - 138.7 - 23rd hardest SOS
#5 - NE - 134.9 - 51st hardest SOS
#6 - WRH - 134.8 - 11th hardest SOS
#9 - ES - 132.3 - 57th hardest SOS
#11 - P - 130.2 - 81st hardest SOS
#12 - STP - 127.9 - 58th hardest SOD

Predictions:

P by 4 over STP
NE by 2 over WRH
Tie to S over R
M by 6 over ES

 

[Maiden Creek]

Simmons is out now:

#1 - R - 140.3 - 32nd hardest SOS
#2 - M - 139.9 - 22nd hardest SOS
#3 - S - 138.7 - 23rd hardest SOS
#5 - NE - 134.9 - 51st hardest SOS
#6 - WRH - 134.8 - 11th hardest SOS
#9 - ES - 132.3 - 57th hardest SOS
#11 - P - 130.2 - 81st hardest SOS
#12 - STP - 127.9 - 58th hardest SOD

Predictions:

P by 4 over STP
NE by 2 over WRH
Tie to S over R
M by 6 over ES

I struggle with why St. Paul’s continues to fly under the radar. They were there in the spring and they just keep winning!
I think they’ll win this game too! Maybe I’m crazy…well…I know I’m crazy😜….but I’ll take Baldwin as the difference in this one!

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

If you take into account each team's 1-8 ranking throughout all 9 categories from the two sites, you end up with this combined ranking average for the remaining 8 teams:

1 - Shelby = 2.00
2 - Maiden = 2.22
3 - Reidsville = 2.89
4 - WRH = 4.22
5 - East Surry = 4.89
6 - N'Eastern = 5.67
7 - Princeton = 6.89
8 - St Pauls = 7.22

Adjusted to add 2 categories from Simmonsratings.com:

1 - S 2.18
1 - M 2.18
3 - R 2.82
4 - WRH 4.00
5 - ES 5.09
6 - NE 5.45
7 - P 7.00
8 - STP 7.27

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Overall Ratings per Simmons scale:

100 Ovr - Reidsville
99 Ovr - Maiden
98 Ovr - Shelby
94 Ovr- NEastern
94 Ovr - WRH
91 Ovr - East Surry
89 Ovr - Princeton
86 Ovr - St Pauls

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Overall Ratings per CalPreps scale:

100 Ovr - Maiden
98 Ovr - Reidsville
97 Ovr - Shelby
91 Ovr - East Surry
87 Ovr - NEastern
87 Ovr - WRH
84 Ovr - Princeton
82 Ovr - St Pauls

 

[Maiden Creek]

I don't see anywhere that Massey explains what he put into getting the rating...I'm sure his formulas are a protected secret...it has to be some kind of "how many points you put up" versus "the strength of the defense you put it up against". The only thing weird about that is special teams/defensive touchdowns...I don't see anyway that he would be able to differentiate those points.

Some perspective on what we do know:

WRH offense isn't just the top of the remaining teams...it is the top offense in 2A period.

#1 in NC is Rolesville with a rating of 57.67 = 100 Overall Offense

2A Top 10
1 - WRH #15 NC = 48.02
2 - Shelby #16 NC = 47.71
3 - Hendo #19 NC = 46.99
4 - Reidsville #21 NC = 46.61
5 - Salisbury #24 NC = 45.58
6 - Monroe #25 NC = 45.54
7 - Princeton #35 NC = 42.46
8 - Maiden #44 NC = 41.21
9 - Washington #45 NC = 41.18
10 - Whiteville #47 NC = 40.88
------
11 - St Pauls #49 NC = 40.26
12 - Northeastern #52 NC = 39.74
13 - East Surry #65 NC = 38.30

Lowest Offense in 2A = Jordan Matthews #396 = 2.07
Lowest Offense in NC = Lejeune #399 = -4.33

For the Defense:

#1 in NC is Hough with a rating of 28.51

2A Top 10
1 - Monroe #35 NC = 16.79
2 - Maiden #44 NC = 15.69
3 - Salisbury #45 NC = 15.64
4 - Burns #57 NC = 13.86
5 - Reidsville #65 NC = 13.10
6 - Shelby #71 NC = 12.60
7 - East Surry #72 NC = 12.39
8 - East Duplin #86 NC = 10.33
9 - West Lincoln #87 NC = 10.20
10 - Whiteville #95 NC = 9.27
------
12 - Northeastern #103 NC = 8.70
28 - St Pauls #172 NC = 2.94
29 - Princeton #173 NC = 2.89
30 - WRH #180 NC = 2.48

Lowest Defense in 2A and NC= Heide Trask #399 = -27.28

Just noticing that huge gap on the defensive numbers. The Nor’easter defense is by far the best in the east! That’s a solid light year ahead of the rest!

Yep!…Swamp Roosters don’t take kindly to others running through their hen house!😜

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Overall Ratings averaged across CP, Massey, Simmons:

97 Ovr - Reidsville
96 Ovr - Maiden
96 Ovr - Shelby
88 Ovr - East Surry
88 Ovr - WRH
87 Ovr - NEastern
83 Ovr - Princeton
81 Ovr - St Pauls

 

[ItsATrap]

Overall Ratings averaged across CP, Massey, Simmons:

97 Ovr - Reidsville
96 Ovr - Maiden
96 Ovr - Shelby
88 Ovr - East Surry
88 Ovr - WRH
87 Ovr - NEastern
83 Ovr - Princeton
81 Ovr - St Pauls

In reality, I think the line between the four remaining teams in the west is razor thin. All four are more than capable of beating each other. I’m not as in tune with the eastern teams. Looking forward to following all the games tonight. This week has the feel of the regional final games so I can’t imagine the excitement that next week will bring. Good luck to all involved, safe travels for them and their fans, and hope everyone stays healthy.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

In reality, I think the line between the four remaining teams in the west is razor thin. All four are more than capable of beating each other. I’m not as in tune with the eastern teams. Looking forward to following all the games tonight. This week has the feel of the regional final games so I can’t imagine the excitement that next week will bring. Good luck to all involved, safe travels for them and their fans, and hope everyone stays healthy.

I agree completely...with East Surry...I just don’t think the equations are capable of taking into account how good they are at capitalizing off of their opponents mistakes. Their Defense, from what I understand, is great at giving their offense a relatively short field....same with Shelby's D and ST play. I think the algorithms overlook it.

If I had to rank the West:
1 - Shelby/Reidsville
3 - Maiden/East Surry

Whoever wins our game will be the underdog next week.

If I had to rank the East:
1 - NE/WRH
3 - Princeton
4 - St Pauls