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Bracketology Rough Draft

tarheelg

tarheelg

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Sep 21, 2001
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Link also posted in another thread after the new ADM numbers were released, the link below should lead to my updated projections

https://tarheel61581.blogspot.com/2018/11/2a2aa-football-bracketology.html

Warning, the link may not work on certain wifi networks, if that's the case, provide an email address and I'll try to get in touch with you and copy and paste all of the text at some point
 
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The brackets explanations are excellent.

It makes sense that a team as talented as East Rutherford (9-2 but third in their conference — and dangerous to overlook) can receive a “fairly high” seeding.
 
taughtatshs said:
The brackets explanations are excellent.

It makes sense that a team as talented as East Rutherford (9-2 but third in their conference — and dangerous to overlook) can receive a “fairly high” seeding.
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Yes, they seem to be having one of, if not the best year in school history, but unfortunately for them, are in the same conference as two perennial powerhouses, if they do get the 7 or 8 seed and get out of the 1st Rd, I'm curious to see how they would do against the 1 or 2 seed in 2nd Rd
 
bknights#77 said:
Thanks for analysis but I see no way Ledford goes West.
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You're probably right, just throwing the possibility out there if things get crazy enough with the games this week and the final rankings....North Davidson would go to the West before Ledford....another question for you in that area though: We are assuming that Oak Grove will have an ADM around 750 since they had 492 last year and presumably had another freshman class around 250ish....they will probably be in 2AA next year when they have all four grades at the school, but do you think they could possibly have had a much larger freshman class this year (or have more 10th & 11th graders) and slide into 2AA?
 
Great job, Brian! About what I have, but we won't know completely until ADM's are out. I have received information that Maiden and also Bandys will probably drop to small 2A. Their numbers have dropped from last year. Thanks again.
 
23Wolf said:
Great job, Brian! About what I have, but we won't know completely until ADM's are out. I have received information that Maiden and also Bandys will probably drop to small 2A. Their numbers have dropped from last year. Thanks again.
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Yes, MANY schools have dropped from last year, but the question will be how far have they dropped, relative to everybody else....wish he had the numbers to know
 
tarheelg said:
You're probably right, just throwing the possibility out there if things get crazy enough with the games this week and the final rankings....North Davidson would go to the West before Ledford....another question for you in that area though: We are assuming that Oak Grove will have an ADM around 750 since they had 492 last year and presumably had another freshman class around 250ish....they will probably be in 2AA next year when they have all four grades at the school, but do you think they could possibly have had a much larger freshman class this year (or have more 10th & 11th graders) and slide into 2AA?
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I would say they will be 2A this year and 2AA next year.
 
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23Wolf said:
Great job, Brian! About what I have, but we won't know completely until ADM's are out. I have received information that Maiden and also Bandys will probably drop to small 2A. Their numbers have dropped from last year. Thanks again.
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Also, are you referring to Brian Simmons?.....I suppose, he like others, are waiting for new ADM numbers
 
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PBBear51 said:
(Note) "Tentatively" every team in the Mountain 6 will make the playoffs (?). That's a statement.
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Yes, we've been assuming all year that 5 of them would based on maxpreps ranking....and East Henderson is the only one near the bubble....they will be in with this week's ranking of 60 unless 7 or 8 different crazy things happen
 
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tarheelg said:
Yes, they seem to be having one of, if not the best year in school history, but unfortunately for them, are in the same conference as two perennial powerhouses, if they do get the 7 or 8 seed and get out of the 1st Rd, I'm curious to see how they would do against the 1 or 2 seed in 2nd Rd
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East Rutherford is very talented
They will make noise in any round.

(Remember Shelby last year — at South Point — after the sound regular season defeat — at South Point.
 
So the number one seed would play SP in the second round, shelby in the third, Hibriten in the 4th. This is one season the number one seed gets screwed. If Pisgah gets the number one seed and gets through that gantlet, just hand them the trophy.
 
tarheelg said:
Also, are you referring to Brian Simmons?.....I suppose, like others, are waiting for new ADM numbers
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tarheelg said:
Also, are you referring to Brian Simmons?.....I suppose, like others, are waiting for new ADM numbers
Click to expand...
Yes, sorry Tarheelg, but anyway great job. Looks to me like with the ADM'S out, West Lincoln will go 2AA. But still anything can happen.
 
bigbear'10 said:
So the number one seed would play SP in the second round, shelby in the third, Hibriten in the 4th. This is one season the number one seed gets screwed. If Pisgah gets the number one seed and gets through that gantlet, just hand them the trophy.
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They will have a chance to prove the naysayers wrong that have been screaming for weeks that they don't deserve the 1 seed.....but actually, I just posted a new thread that includes this year's ADM numbers where Pisgah is still 1, but the 8/9 game now shows North Lincoln vs. Smoky Mountain....South Point at 10 would go to 7 Mount Pleasant in 1st Rd, winner of that would probably get 2 Hibriten
 
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West17 said:
What is the cutoff numbers for big A and little A?
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We won't know the exact number until we know exactly which 64 teams qualify for the playoffs.....and we cannot know that 100% for sure until they release the preliminary brackets and the final adjusted maxpreps rankings....we will be able to make better guess-timates as the final scores roll in the next couple of nights, but a team ranked in Low 50s or 60s lose this week, they could fall out and make that number change....then that could make the East/West cutline change in both 2A and 2AA
 
bigbear'10 said:
So the number one seed would play SP in the second round, shelby in the third, Hibriten in the 4th. This is one season the number one seed gets screwed. If Pisgah gets the number one seed and gets through that gantlet, just hand them the trophy.
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That’s crazy !!!!! I have seen 3 for the 4 play this year and watched Hibriten play couple times last year and all 4 teams are good...... VERY GOOD actually Big 2a is loaded with great football
 
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tarheelg said:
You're probably right, just throwing the possibility out there if things get crazy enough with the games this week and the final rankings....North Davidson would go to the West before Ledford....another question for you in that area though: We are assuming that Oak Grove will have an ADM around 750 since they had 492 last year and presumably had another freshman class around 250ish....they will probably be in 2AA next year when they have all four grades at the school, but do you think they could possibly have had a much larger freshman class this year (or have more 10th & 11th graders) and slide into 2AA?
Click to expand...

Oak Grove’s population is currently 726. The 8th grade at OGMS has an even 250kids.
6th and 7th grades are smaller. 218 and 223 kids, respectively.
 
PrepFanNC said:
Oak Grove’s population is currently 726. The 8th grade at OGMS has an even 250kids.
6th and 7th grades are smaller. 218 and 223 kids, respectively.
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Definitely shaping up to be in 2AA football playoffs the next two years if they qualify....and very likely going to 3A in 2021
 
tarheelg said:
Definitely shaping up to be in 2AA football playoffs the next two years if they qualify....and very likely going to 3A in 2021
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I was a staunch supporter of the Davidson County CCC model. I liked the idea of having some local schools that would result in higher gates at football games. But I haven’t really seen that. I still think the county schools travel better than most of the 4A CPC teams did, but it’s disappointing to see 200 fans from West Davidson travel to Oak Grove, for what ought to be (it wasn’t) a winnable game for them.

Maybe a small 3A conference with OG, Ledford and ND would be better? I just don’t know.
 
PrepFanNC said:
I was a staunch supporter of the Davidson County CCC model. I liked the idea of having some local schools that would result in higher gates at football games. But I haven’t really seen that. I still think the county schools travel better than most of the 4A CPC teams did, but it’s disappointing to see 200 fans from West Davidson travel to Oak Grove, for what ought to be (it wasn’t) a winnable game for them.

Maybe a small 3A conference with OG, Ledford and ND would be better? I just don’t know.
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200 is not terrible; sure you'd like better, but I've heard of (and seen) much smaller crowds at playoff games at other places
 
tarheelg said:
200 is not terrible; sure you'd like better, but I've heard of (and seen) much smaller crowds at playoff games at other places
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Like if your projection holds for North Davidson to host First Flight in the first round. That’ll be a light gate!
 
PrepFanNC said:
Like if your projection holds for North Davidson to host First Flight in the first round. That’ll be a light gate!
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Yes, probably so....Our South Granville folks traveled better than I was expecting last year to North Davidson in 3rd Rd on Thanksgiving weekend....it might have been close to 200, maybe closer to 250...of course I heard one make the comment that being over Thanksgiving was part of why he did go; as it gave him an excuse to skip out on more time with the in laws
 
tarheelg said:
Yes, probably so....Our South Granville folks traveled better than I was expecting last year to North Davidson in 3rd Rd on Thanksgiving weekend....it might have been close to 200, maybe closer to 250...of course I heard one make the comment that being over Thanksgiving was part of why he did go; as it gave him an excuse to skip out on more time with the in laws
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Heck I thought ya'll brought closer to 500 by the looks of things from across the way.
 
bknights#77 said:
Heck I thought ya'll brought closer to 500 by the looks of things from across the way.
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Maybe it was over 300 or more, I can't remember; just know it was way more than I was expecting; might have been more than we had at the home games in 1st & 2nd Rds.....the main thing I remember the phantom holding call (I mean on film you can see who the flag was on...but I've seen between 500-1000 more blatant offenses that were NOT flagged over the years) on the would have been go ahead TD in the 4th quarter....then the bad snap on the fake FG later in that drive that turned the ball over on downs....then the ND deep ball on the next play to put it out of reach
 
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