I know you say that Shelby is the next to go...but Shelby and West Lincoln have the same ADM...so who would be pushed down and who would stay? How does that get decided? Will 2AA teams donate large amounts of money to the NCHSAA to make Shelby a 2A?
2A/2AA Bracketology Projections
- Thread starter tarheelg
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I know you say that Shelby is the next to go...but Shelby and West Lincoln have the same ADM...so who would be pushed down and who would stay? How does that get decided? Will 2AA teams donate large amounts of money to the NCHSAA to make Shelby a 2A?
I believe they would draw for it....and Andrews has same ADM too...if they beat Wheatmore and all these other bubble teams lose, they could be in the mix too
If the reports about Anson are true, I'd say the chance just went up from 20-25% to more like 30-35%
Just revised 2AA/2A to reflect Anson not being in, have Carrboro replacing them for the moment, but they really need to beat Webb to lock down that wild card berth and not leave it up to the computer
Probably still out of the playoffs, they might steal the very last wild card spot, but I'm not counting on it
GUT FEELING LAST MINUTE REVISION PROJECTIONS, attempting the unthinkable and trying to guess how the AMPR computer will rank teams after Friday night's results. It is obvious that there are 10 or 11 teams in play for the last 4 or 5 wild card spots, and we have absolutely no idea what it's going to say, but here is my best guess of what I'm expecting, noticing the rankings' tendencies
-My 2AA/2A cut line: tie between Shelby/West Lincoln (smallest 2AA) & Bandys (largest 2A)
-In 2AA, my West/East cut line: between North Surry (easternmost team in West) & Salisbury (westernmost team in East)
-In 2A, my West/East cut line: between Bartlett Yancey (easternmost team in West) & Red Springs (westernmost team in East)
-AMPR shown in (x).....AND YES, I KNOW I HAVE SOME TEAMS IN THE WRONG ORDER BASED ON LAST WEEK'S RANKINGS; THAT'S WHY I REFERRED TO MY PROJECTIONS BELOW AS GUT FEELING PROJECTIONS ON WHAT THE FINAL RANKINGS MIGHT BE
-2AA West
Tier of 1s
1 Shelby (1) (could drop to 2A if cut line moves; could come down a draw)
2 North Lincoln (6)
3 Hibriten (10)
4 Smoky Mountain (27)
5 Ashe (41)
----------
Tier of 2s
6 Burns (4)
7 Maiden (25)
8 North Surry (42) (could go to 2AA East, would be the first to move if the cut line moved)
9 Bunker Hill (64)
----------
Tier of WCs
10 Pisgah (15)
11 East Lincoln (19)
12 West Lincoln (31) (could drop to 2A if cut line moves; could come down a draw)
13 South Point (44)
14 Wilkes Central (46)
15 Rutherfordton-Spindale Central (57)
16 West Iredell (68) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
-Notes: If the East/West cutline moves, others that could move to 2AA West include: (in this order) Salisbury, North Davidson, Oak Grove, Ledford
------------------------------------------
2AA East
Tier of 1s
1 Randleman (8)
2 Oak Grove (21)
3 South Granville (39) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
4 Currituck (38)
----------
Tier of 2s
5 Washington (16)
6 Salisbury (29) (could move to 2AA West)
7 East Duplin (48) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
8 Croatan (40)
----------
Tier of 3s
9 Ledford (50)
----------
Tier of WCs
10 Hertford (9)
11 St. Pauls (28)
12 North Lenoir (45)
13 North Davidson (51)
14 Andrews (70) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
15 Bunn (69) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
16 Morehead (81)
-Notes: Nash Central (61), Richlands (67) and Mount Pleasant (74) (would be near East/West cut line) are all teams on the playoff bubble that have to wait and see what the computer says to see if they make the playoffs, I'm listing Andrews & Bunn as in, but I know the ranking could very well throw us all for a loop
------------------------------------------
2A West
Tier of 1s
1 Mountain Heritage (3)
2 Reidsville (12) (gut feeling, probably not much disagreement here)
3 Brevard (11)
4 West Stokes (35)
----------
Tier of 2s
5 Eastern Randolph (30)
6 Bartlett Yancey (33)
----------
Tier of WCs
7 Chase (22)
8 Newton-Conover (34) (near cut line, could go to 2AA West)
9 Owen (37)
10 Thomasville (43)
11 Providence Grove (54)
12 Draughn (55)
13 North Wilkes (56)
14 Hendersonville (59) (just a gut feeling about the rankings)
15 Forbush (58)
16 Bandys (62) (just a gut feeling about the rankings)
------------------------------------------
2A East
Tier of 1s
1 Clinton (2)
2 SouthWest Edgecombe (7) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
3 Northeastern (5)
4 West Craven (23) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
4 Red Springs (20)
6 Southwest Onslow (36)
----------
Tier of 2s
7 Whiteville (18)
8 Beddingfield (32)
----------
Tier of WCs
9 Wallace-Rose Hill (17)
10 Ayden-Grifton (26) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
11 Midway (24)
12 Goldsboro (47)
13 Kinston (52)
14 Fairmont (53)
15 East Bladen (60)
16 James Kenan (66) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
-Other Notes: If Andrews (70) does make the playoffs, they are currently listed in 2AA East, but would be near the cut line and could go 2A East
-My 2AA/2A cut line: tie between Shelby/West Lincoln (smallest 2AA) & Bandys (largest 2A)
-In 2AA, my West/East cut line: between North Surry (easternmost team in West) & Salisbury (westernmost team in East)
-In 2A, my West/East cut line: between Bartlett Yancey (easternmost team in West) & Red Springs (westernmost team in East)
-AMPR shown in (x).....AND YES, I KNOW I HAVE SOME TEAMS IN THE WRONG ORDER BASED ON LAST WEEK'S RANKINGS; THAT'S WHY I REFERRED TO MY PROJECTIONS BELOW AS GUT FEELING PROJECTIONS ON WHAT THE FINAL RANKINGS MIGHT BE
-2AA West
Tier of 1s
1 Shelby (1) (could drop to 2A if cut line moves; could come down a draw)
2 North Lincoln (6)
3 Hibriten (10)
4 Smoky Mountain (27)
5 Ashe (41)
----------
Tier of 2s
6 Burns (4)
7 Maiden (25)
8 North Surry (42) (could go to 2AA East, would be the first to move if the cut line moved)
9 Bunker Hill (64)
----------
Tier of WCs
10 Pisgah (15)
11 East Lincoln (19)
12 West Lincoln (31) (could drop to 2A if cut line moves; could come down a draw)
13 South Point (44)
14 Wilkes Central (46)
15 Rutherfordton-Spindale Central (57)
16 West Iredell (68) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
-Notes: If the East/West cutline moves, others that could move to 2AA West include: (in this order) Salisbury, North Davidson, Oak Grove, Ledford
------------------------------------------
2AA East
Tier of 1s
1 Randleman (8)
2 Oak Grove (21)
3 South Granville (39) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
4 Currituck (38)
----------
Tier of 2s
5 Washington (16)
6 Salisbury (29) (could move to 2AA West)
7 East Duplin (48) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
8 Croatan (40)
----------
Tier of 3s
9 Ledford (50)
----------
Tier of WCs
10 Hertford (9)
11 St. Pauls (28)
12 North Lenoir (45)
13 North Davidson (51)
14 Andrews (70) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
15 Bunn (69) (just a gut feeling on computer rankings)
16 Morehead (81)
-Notes: Nash Central (61), Richlands (67) and Mount Pleasant (74) (would be near East/West cut line) are all teams on the playoff bubble that have to wait and see what the computer says to see if they make the playoffs, I'm listing Andrews & Bunn as in, but I know the ranking could very well throw us all for a loop
------------------------------------------
2A West
Tier of 1s
1 Mountain Heritage (3)
2 Reidsville (12) (gut feeling, probably not much disagreement here)
3 Brevard (11)
4 West Stokes (35)
----------
Tier of 2s
5 Eastern Randolph (30)
6 Bartlett Yancey (33)
----------
Tier of WCs
7 Chase (22)
8 Newton-Conover (34) (near cut line, could go to 2AA West)
9 Owen (37)
10 Thomasville (43)
11 Providence Grove (54)
12 Draughn (55)
13 North Wilkes (56)
14 Hendersonville (59) (just a gut feeling about the rankings)
15 Forbush (58)
16 Bandys (62) (just a gut feeling about the rankings)
------------------------------------------
2A East
Tier of 1s
1 Clinton (2)
2 SouthWest Edgecombe (7) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
3 Northeastern (5)
4 West Craven (23) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
4 Red Springs (20)
6 Southwest Onslow (36)
----------
Tier of 2s
7 Whiteville (18)
8 Beddingfield (32)
----------
Tier of WCs
9 Wallace-Rose Hill (17)
10 Ayden-Grifton (26) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
11 Midway (24)
12 Goldsboro (47)
13 Kinston (52)
14 Fairmont (53)
15 East Bladen (60)
16 James Kenan (66) (just a gut feeling on the rankings)
-Other Notes: If Andrews (70) does make the playoffs, they are currently listed in 2AA East, but would be near the cut line and could go 2A East
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@tarheelg In your opinion, any chance Burns gets anything higher than a 6 seed? If Shelby goes small 2A, that give Burns a 5?
That would be correct....Burns will be the highest 2nd place team in 2AA West, and yes, if Shelby goes small, they would go up a spot
Cummings was listed No. 5 on Simmons strength of schedule and the Cavs won a playoff game last year so they're not as bad as a 2-9 record indicates. Best defense in the conference other than Reidsville.
If what you say is true, and Carrboro (7-3) got third in the draw, that will leave 9-2 Bartlett Yancey on the outside looking in due to the leap-frog rule unless they let both Carrboro and BY in as at-large teams.
Right now, Simmons is projecting Carrboro, Cummings and BY all in. Another site has Cummings and BY in and Carrboro out. Tough day for somebody.
I think that presupposes that Cummings won draw for 2nd.....I heard that BY did, and Cummings 3rd, Carrboro 4th, so I only put in BY
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