2A/2AA Bracketology Projections

[tarheelg]

More than one site has them, I will try to point out possible changes and shifts we could see after Friday night's results and the final rankings, remember this what I'm guessing at the moment, but not taking into account what might happen this Friday (except a few places where I had to guess on a draw)

-Unlike HSOT (and maybe some others out there), I did include Walkertown, making the last team in Carrboro, and the first team out James Kenan

-My 2AA/2A cut line: tie between West Lincoln/Shelby (smallest 2AA) & Newton-Conover (largest 2A)

-In 2AA, my West/East cut line: between East Lincoln (easternmost team in West) & North Surry (westernmost team in East)

-In 2A, my West/East cut line: between Eastern Randolph (easternmost team in West) & B Yancey (westernmost team in East)

-AMPR shown in (x)

-2AA West
Tier of 1s
1 Shelby (1) (could drop to 2A if cut line moves up three places)
2 North Lincoln (6)
3 Hibriten (10)
4 Ashe (41)
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Tier of 2s
5 Burns (4)
6 Maiden (25)
7 Smoky Mountain (27)
8 North Surry (42) (could easily go to 2AA East, would be the first to move if the cut line moved)
9 Bunker Hill (64) (could fall out of playoffs with loss this week)
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Tier of WCs
10 Pisgah (15) (could move up to tier of 1s or 2s, depending on Brevard game)
11 East Lincoln (19)
12 West Lincoln (31)
13 South Point (44)
14 Wilkes Central (46)
15 Rutherfordton-Spindale Central (57) (at risk of falling out of playoffs with loss to Chase)
16 Bandys (62) (at risk of falling out of playoffs with loss to N Lincoln, also near cut line, could drop to small 2A)
-Notes: Forbush (58) is currently projected in small 2A West, they could go up to 2AA, would be seeded between R-S Ce. & Bandys with this week's AMPR, they could also miss playoffs with loss this week
-If West Iredell (68) sneaks into the playoffs, they would be toward the bottom of this bracket at 15 or 16 seed
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2AA East
Tier of 1s
1 Randleman (8)
2 Oak Grove (21) (could drop to lower tier if they lose to E Davidson)
3 Currituck (38)
4 South Granville (39)
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Tier of 2s
5 Washington (16)
6 Salisbury (29) (could very easily swap places with Ledford or N Davidson, depending on the ND/Led game this week, and/or draw for 2nd, 3rd, 4th in conf., could also move to West)
7 Croatan (40) (could change tiers if Richlands beats SW Onslow)
8 East Duplin (48) (could drop to tier of WCs with loss to Goldsboro this week)
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Omitting Tier of 3s, but remember that if either Ledford, North Davidson, or Salisbury get credit for finishing 3rd in the Central Carolina, then they would be the only team in a Tier of 3s, most likely in East; Salisbury would be the first of that group to go West if cut line moves, in this projection, treating Led. & ND as Wild Cards for the sake of making it simpler, chance of that happening anyway if Salisbury gets 2 and Thomasville gets 3 (would be in small 2A)
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Tier of WCs
9 Hertford (9) (could possibly go up to Tier of 2s depending on draw if allowable in their tiebreak situation, thinking they are stuck as WC since conf. only gets 2 auto bids)
10 St. Pauls (28)
11 North Lenoir (45)
12 Ledford (50) (jumps to Tier of 3s with win over N Davidson)
13 North Davidson (51) (could jump to Tier of 2s or 3s with win over Ledford, could also pass N Lenoir within this tier, depending on final AMPR)
14 Nash Central (61) (probably needs to beat N Johnston to stay in playoffs)
15 Carrboro (63) (could jump to tier of 2s if they win potential draw for 2nd place in their conference, could also be locked out of playoffs if the draw 4th place AND Cummings draws 3rd place)
16 Morehead (81)
-Notes: SW Edgecombe (7) is currently projected in small 2A East, but if the 2A/2AA line moves, they could go to 2AA, and would be seeded #1 in 2AA East and bump everyone else down a spot, while at least one of these 16 would be bumped either out of the playoffs, to the West, or to the small 2A bracket

-If Carrboro (63) and Cummings (80) finish in 3 way tie (along with B. Yancey) for 2nd in Mid State and wins draw for 2nd place, they would go into Tier of 2s, and bump out some potential Wild Card team ranked in 60s

-Richlands (67), Bunn (69), Andrews (70) (most likely; could be small 2A), Dixon (72) make it, any of these would be 2AA East, and if that happens, look for teams such as N Surry, then Salisbury, then N Davidson to slide to 2AA West

-If Mount Pleasant were to upset W Stanly, they could make an appearance in 2AA, (near cut line, but guessing East right now)

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2A West
Tier of 1s
1 Mountain Heritage (3)
2 Brevard (11) (could drop to a different tier with loss to Pisgah)
3 Reidsville (12) (would drop to a different tier with loss to B Yancey)
4 West Stokes (35) (could shift to 2AA East if line moves three places)
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Tier of 2s
5 Eastern Randolph (30)
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Omitting Tier of 3s to simplify process, but Thomasville could wind up here based on a draw if there was a 3 way tie for 2nd in Central Carolina, for that to come into play, it would involve no upsets to teams at top of league and a N Davidson win over Ledford, going to list Thomasville as a Wild Card in this projection, though there is the possibility of them going into the Tier of 2s, 3s, or Wild Cards, even 1s if Oak Grove were to lose to East Davidson
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Tier of WCs
6 West Stanly (14) (needs to beat Mount Pleasant to be locked in to playoffs)
7 Chase (22)
8 Newton-Conover (34) (near cut line, could go up to 2AA)
9 Owen (37)
10 Thomasville (43)
11 Walkertown (49) (listed in playoffs right now, banking on getting a win and a favorable draw, but could miss playoffs entirely based on what happens on the field in final week, out if they lose to Atkins, also potentially a draw to see who finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th in Western Piedmont...if they finish behind N Forsyth in conference standings, do not expect them in the playoffs, as for other on field results, a Forbush win over W Stokes AND a N Forsyth win over Surry Ce would lock Walkertown into 5th place without a draw and eliminates them, even if they beat Atkins, by the way, this is because of the leap frog rule on qualifying for the playoffs, and due to their loss to N Forsyth, coupled with NF's low AMPR and essentially no shot at the playoffs
12 Providence Grove (54) (getting one more win wouldn't hurt to keep ranking in 50s)
13 Draughn (55) (getting one more win wouldn't hurt to keep ranking in 50s)
14 North Wilkes (56) (getting one more win wouldn't hurt to keep ranking in 50s)
15 Forbush (58) (needs to beat W Stokes to remain safely in the playoffs, could also go up to 2AA if the cut line moves two spots, and if that happens, they would be near the East/West cut line in 2AA
16 Hendersonville (59) (needs to beat E Henderson to remain safely in the playoffs)
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2A East
Tier of 1s
1 Clinton (2)
2 Northeastern (5) (needs Hertford to stay in 2AA to stay in tier of 1s, shouldn't be a problem but you never know)
3 SouthWest Edgecombe (7) (must beat Beddingfield to remain in this tier, could also move up to 2AA if the cut line moves down one spot)
4 Red Springs (20) (needs to beat St. Pauls to help seeding and stay ahead of W Craven)
5 West Craven (23) (needs to beat New Bern to help seeding and have chance to pass Red Springs)
6 Southwest Onslow (36) (could drop to a different tier with loss to Richlands)
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Tier of 2s
7 Whiteville (18)
8 Beddingfield (32) (could move up to Tier of 1s with win over SW Edgecombe
9 B. Yancey (33) (presupposing they get credit for 2nd place in conf; they could wind up as a wild card or miss the playoffs altogether, depending on results of potential draw to break tie for 2nd place in conf., could also drop to Tier of WCs)
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Tier of WCs
10 Wallace-Rose Hill (17) (could move up to Tier of 2s with win over J Kenan and a Midway win over Clinton)
11 Midway (24) (could move up to Tier of 2s with win over Clinton and E Duplin win over Goldsboro and JK win over WRH
12 Ayden-Grifton (26) (could improve seeding with win over Kinston)
13 Goldsboro (47) (could move up to Tier of 2s with win over E Duplin and Midway win over Clinton and JK win over WRH)
14 Kinston (52) (could improve seeding with win over A-G, possible to fall out of playoffs with a loss but unlikely)
15 Fairmont (53) (could improve seeding with win over D. Byrd, possible to fall out of playoffs with a loss)
16 East Bladen (60) (needs to beat W Bladen to solidify ranking and stay in playoffs)
-Other Notes: If J. Kenan (66) were to upset WRH, they would be toward the bottom of 2A East between 14-16, if not they probably miss playoffs
-If Andrews (70) were to sneak into playoffs, they would probably go 2AA East, but would be near the cut line and could go 2A East, would probably be #16

 

[beamer24]

Thanks for your work!

 

[Mopar forever]

The 16 th seed Hendersonville in no way will loose to East Hendersonville...... but they do have to play so there’s a chance

 

[tarheelg]

The 16 th seed Hendersonville in no way will loose to East Hendersonville...... but they do have to play so there’s a chance

I know they shouldn't, and I don't expect them to....just saying that the last couple of weeks, we've seen multiple upsets affecting 2A conferences that nobody saw coming....also, in this case, if Hendersonville were to lose to East Henderson, then that would make it more justified for them to miss the playoffs....same with any team ranked in 50s or 60s that has a game left they should win handily

 

[BleedBurnsBlue]

Really appreciate your work. I can only imagine how time consuming it is.

 

[tarheelg]

Really appreciate your work. I can only imagine how time consuming it is.

Yes, it's taken a lot of time this week, but not counting tracking the standings and rankings every week the whole season and having a blue print in place to be revised every week with new rankings, and more importantly this week, to add in new ADM numbers and finally get a better picture of how it's going to look....with all that said, I figured there are still only about 54 teams that are "locked" into the playoffs, either they've already secured or will secure an auto bid this week, or their AMPR is so high, and they're not in danger of being locked out by leap frog rule that they are solidly in....meaning I say there are 10 spots left, and about 20 teams have a fighting chance....Teams in the best position are the ones listed in my projection (except maybe Walkertown and Bartlett Yancey, whose entire playoff fate could come down to a random draw), but the ones in the best shape are teams like Providence Grove, Draughn, North Wilkes, Hendersonville, East Bladen, Nash Central, and Bunker Hill....they are all essentially in a win-and-in situation, with games they should win...if they all win, that's 7 of the 10 spots taken, leaving 3 spots open for teams like R-S Central, Forbush, and Bandys, Mount Pleasant who all still have a win-and-in situation, but they have games this week in which they will be an underdog....teams like Carrboro, James Kenan, Richlands, West Iredell, Bunn, Andrews all need a win, and could claim any berths vacated by anybody mentioned above who takes a loss this week....in that group, I'd say West Iredell has the best chance of winning, followed by Andrews, then Bunn....next tier down includes teams like Mount Pleasant and Cummings, whose AMPR is too low for a wild card but they could steal an auto bid as a 2, MP needs a big upset win, Cummings would need to win a draw, and that happening could bump out some of these potential wild card teams ranked in the 60s, maybe even one who wins this week

 

[TD Pass2]

Great job! Thanks for keeping us informed!

 

[Slasher Killer]

Never thought I'd see us going to the East in all my years.. let alone near the outer banks to play Croatan.. that would be amazing. Maybe it's the fact I ain't seen a beach in 17 years is playing a role in it. If we do go west who would we get? Bunker Hill? Pisgah?

Sorry for the WPAC 3rd place deal being so annoying.. the conference as a whole stinks

You do an awesome job.

 

[Sportsnut17]

Maybe it's the fact I ain't seen a beach in 17 years is playing a role in it. If we do go west who would we get?

You do an awesome job.

Slash, you need to get out more.

 

[tarheelg]

Never thought I'd see us going to the East in all my years.. let alone near the outer banks to play Croatan.. that would be amazing. Maybe it's the fact I ain't seen a beach in 17 years is playing a role in it. If we do go west who would we get? Bunker Hill? Pisgah?

Sorry for the WPAC 3rd place deal being so annoying.. the conference as a whole stinks

You do an awesome job.

Are you with North Surry?? Yes, there's still a very good chance the Hounds go West, but just the possibility of them being near the cut line is insane....if N Surry goes to 2AA West and not much else changes, this would have them around 8, playing 9...that 9 could be Bunker Hill if they win a game they should win this week and finish 2nd in their league, or you could get Pisgah, if they don't beat Brevard this week (or maybe even if they do but draw the short straw)....or you could see East Lincoln....and yea Croatan has the sound in the backyard, still another 10-15 minutes away from the ocean

 

[Slasher Killer]

Are you with North Surry?? Yes, there's still a very good chance the Hounds go West, but just the possibility of them being near the cut line is insane....if N Surry goes to 2AA West and not much else changes, this would have them around 8, playing 9...that 9 could be Bunker Hill if they win a game they should win this week and finish 2nd in their league, or you could get Pisgah, if they don't beat Brevard this week (or maybe even if they do but draw the short straw)....or you could see East Lincoln....and yea Croatan has the sound in the backyard, still another 10-15 minutes away from the ocean

Yes sir, proud 'Hound.

All this playoff stuff gives me a headache.. I feel for you!

It's a dream of mine to see some part of the NC beaches so I hope that happens but I doubt it, something flukey will happen.

 

[tarheelg]

Never thought I'd see us going to the East in all my years.. let alone near the outer banks to play Croatan.. that would be amazing. Maybe it's the fact I ain't seen a beach in 17 years is playing a role in it. If we do go west who would we get? Bunker Hill? Pisgah?

Sorry for the WPAC 3rd place deal being so annoying.. the conference as a whole stinks

You do an awesome job.

Also, it's not North Surry's fault that sorting out the mess in the We Pied is troublesome; they did their job holding serve against all those teams in the mix....it's Walkertown's loss to North Forsyth that could be why they miss the playoffs....I wish we could know the draw results in advance for bracketologizing purposes; sometimes they do let the knowledge out, just not sure how soon that will become the case in this conference or the others that could have a draw

PS, I'm with South Granville.....we are still mad about the volleyball state finals in 2012

 

[NDApp]

Great work. The reason that Walkertown is not making the field in the highschoolOT projections is because they are tied with North Forsyth for 4th in their conference. Both teams should win on Friday and North Forsyth holds the tiebreaker. With the NCHSAA not allowing a lower finishing team to jump a higher finishing team for at-large consideration, that is keeping Walkertown out of the field because North Forsyth has an AMPR of 75.

 

[NDApp]

Another question, if another team makes the 2AA East, would that move Salisbury over to the 2AA West?

 

[tarheelg]

Another question, if another team makes the 2AA East, would that move Salisbury over to the 2AA West?

yes, there is a chance that Salisbury goes to the West, but North Surry would go first, and also, remember sometimes you see one change and thing the line will move, (2A/2AA and/or East/West), then another change happens and balances things out and not a whole lot changes, just all depends

 

[tarheelg]

Great work. The reason that Walkertown is not making the field in the highschoolOT projections is because they are tied with North Forsyth for 4th in their conference. Both teams should win on Friday and North Forsyth holds the tiebreaker. With the NCHSAA not allowing a lower finishing team to jump a higher finishing team for at-large consideration, that is keeping Walkertown out of the field because North Forsyth has an AMPR of 75.

Yes, I alluded to all of that in the article, but Walkertown's win over Forbush means that if Forbush loses to West Stokes, then they are in a 3 way tie, and Forbush could miss the playoffs just as easily as Walkertown....I have them both in right now, hopefully somebody who knows will put the draw results on twitter or on here if we need one

 

[notanyonesfan]

Thanks tarheel! Awesome job

 

[jungleguy105]

What are the chances that shelby ends up in 2A?

 

[tarheelg]

What are the chances that shelby ends up in 2A?

Tough to say, i'd guess about 20-25%, the 2A/2AA cut line would have to move up three places, which is possible but unlikely

 

[jungleguy105]

Teams like Bunn, Richlands, Cummings, and Mount pleasant seems to still have a shot a making the playoffs. If this happens that would possibly move the cut off line right? With all these teams having a higher ADM than Shelby.

 

[tarheelg]

Teams like Bunn, Richlands, Cummings, and Mount pleasant seems to still have a shot a making the playoffs. If this happens that would possibly move then cut off line right? With all these teams having a higher ADM than Shelby.

That's right....long odds for Mt Pleasant to beat W Stanly and Richlands to beat SWO....1 in 3 odds for Cummings to win draw as long as they beat Graham....Bunn could beat RR but needs other bubble teams to lose to open up spots......really long odds for all of these things to happen but stranger things have happened....still guessing Shelby will be 2AA

 

[SWO-#1]

That's right....long odds for Mt Pleasant to beat W Stanly and Richlands to beat SWO....1 in 3 odds for Cummings to win draw as long as they beat Graham....Bunn could beat RR but needs other bubble teams to lose to open up spots......really long odds for all of these things to happen but stranger things have happened....still guessing Shelby will be 2AA

Well Shucky Darn, No lion taming this year ..... Guess they will just stay in the Lower half of 2A.

 

[CrazyHeel]

Northeastern would not get a 2 over SouthWest Edgecombe

 

[User20.014]

How would they give 8 an 3 team Thaz in a 3 way tie the number 2 seed.Insane

 

[SWE'98]

Northeastern would not get a 2 over SouthWest Edgecombe

Last I checked, that adjusted crap does have NE ahead of SWE. Maybe it changes with a win over 8-2 Beddingfield this week.

 

[tarheelg]

Northeastern would not get a 2 over SouthWest Edgecombe

They might not when the final bracket comes out but right now they would....SWE could pass them in rankings if the computer thinks beating Beddingfield is worth more than beating Pasquotank (and it very well should think that)....also don't forget that SWE could very well wind up in 2AA if the cut line moves down one spot

 

[tarheelg]

How would they give 8 an 3 team Thaz in a 3 way tie the number 2 seed.Insane

In as much as overall record is what impacts the rankings, overall record is not directly correlated to seeding like it was 3 or 4 years ago, dating back to the mid 1990s, before that, remember it was all predetermined by conference....only good thing about the really old brackets was no doubt about going East or West

 

[owen98]

So I saw on carolinapreps that Anson County is ineligible for the playoffs due to a fight early in the season in which many of their player left the sidelines. How will that affect the brackets?

 

[burnsbulldogtweeter]

BREAKING NEWS: Just read on another board that Anson has been declared ineligible for the playoffs.

 

[burnsbulldogtweeter]

So I saw on carolinapreps that Anson County is ineligible for the playoffs due to a fight early in the season in which many of their player left the sidelines. How will that affect the brackets?

Beat me to it by seconds

 

[owen98]

Lol

 

[burnsbulldogtweeter]

This would bump Bandys to small 2A if they get in, according to Highschoolot. If they don’t, West Lincoln

 

[tarheelg]

This would bump Bandys to small 2A if they get in, according to Highschoolot. If they don’t, Newton-Conover.

Yes, that means one more bubble team will get in

 

[burnsbulldogtweeter]

Yes, that mean one more bubble team will get in....if I remember correctly, then whoever finishes 2nd in their conference will still be seed with the 2nd place teams and not the 1st place teams

I miscalculated and I meant West Lincoln, not Newton-Conover

 

[West17]

How does Anson being disqualified affect anything?

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

From what I can tell with Anson out the next one in will be Carrboro. This would bump Newton Conover from 2AA down to 2A. And with Carrboro in with the 2AA East it will push North Surry back into the 2AA West bracket.

 

[tarheelg]

How does Anson being disqualified affect anything?

It affects the 2A/2AA cutline, and maybe the East/West cutline in 2A and/or 2AA, and more importantly for one team, it lets one more bubble team into the playoffs as an at large wild card, pretty sure that league will only get 1 auto bid now (if all of this is true; I haven't seen any official reports yet)

 

[tarheelg]

Also, in a related story, if you scroll up and see an adjustment I made to my projection, having nothing to do with Anson being eligible or not, but affecting their conference.....the Rocky River 2A only gets 1 auto bid since there are only 4 2A schools playing football (Central Academy no football in 2 years, Montgomery Central is 3A, will be a wild card and not a 1 since their record is below .500 and they won't be in top 3 in league.....anyway, if Anson is in eligible, then this league would have 0 auto bids; everybody would have to be a wild card, meaning that if Mount Pleasant beats West Stanly this Friday, then they are in 2nd place outright (unless Forest Hills beats Anson, then you have a 3 way tie for second and might need a draw)....if Anson & Mt Pleasant win, then West Stanly better hope that Mt Pleasant's ranking takes a HUGE jump from 74, or else West Stanly is out of the playoffs...I don't think many are expecting West Stanly to lose this game, but the possibility of it muddies the bracketology waters for sure

 

[97Cougar]

Also, in a related story, if you scroll up and see an adjustment I made to my projection, having nothing to do with Anson being eligible or not, but affecting their conference.....the Rocky River 2A only gets 1 auto bid since there are only 4 2A schools playing football (Central Academy no football in 2 years, Montgomery Central is 3A, will be a wild card and not a 1 since their record is below .500 and they won't be in top 3 in league.....anyway, if Anson is in eligible, then this league would have 0 auto bids; everybody would have to be a wild card, meaning that if Mount Pleasant beats West Stanly this Friday, then they are in 2nd place outright (unless Forest Hills beats Anson, then you have a 3 way tie for second and might need a draw)....if Anson & Mt Pleasant win, then West Stanly better hope that Mt Pleasant's ranking takes a HUGE jump from 74, or else West Stanly is out of the playoffs...I don't think many are expecting West Stanly to lose this game, but the possibility of it muddies the bracketology waters for sure

Would that move the cut line up or down?

 

[tarheelg]

Would that move the cut line up or down?

Well....right now, as this week's rankings stand, Carrboro is the next one in, they would be big, pushing Newton-Conover down to small....but remember that most of us do not expect the rankings to stay the same after this Friday night....Newton-Conover and SW Edgecombe could both still go 2AA if another team or two above cut line currently projected to be in, get bumped out of the playoffs.....Bandys (if they stay in playoffs), Shelby, North Surry, Bunker Hill (if they stay in playoffs) could still go small....this could be the first step in pushing Shelby to the small 2A....if Bandys loses to North Lincoln, there is a very good chance they get bumped out of the playoffs, putting Shelby the next one to go....of course Carrboro's game at Webb at is no gimmie, they could still be out...Forest Hills is next in this week's rankings, but they might be ineligible from a fight last week, and play a team that might be ineligible from a fight two months ago....JK is next but they have WRH....Richlands is next but they have SWO...West Iredell is next, they have Foard, probably the most winnable of any of these teams listed....could Bandys and Carrboro make the field even with a loss this week?? Maybe, depending on what all of these teams do....Even teams at 70 and below could come into play for the last wild card spot or two like Andrews (if they beat Wheatmore), Greene Central (if they beat Washington), Dixon (if they beat Trask), Central Davidson (if they beat West Davidson), and Mount Pleasant (if they beat West Stanly)...What did Willie Wonka once say?? The suspense is killing me; I hope it lasts