Way Too Early Discussion of 2021 Realignment

[tarheelg]

It's only about a year away before the officials in charge of realignment will begin looking at the new set of conferences for the four year cycle to run from 2021-2025....With this year's ADM numbers, I started tinkering with some numbers and realize they have quite a dilemma, and must say that I quickly discovered exactly why they went with the 20/30/30/20 model for the 2017-2021 cycle. As you might guess, if you follow high school sports (or politics) in NC and read a lot of message board banter, the primary complicating issue is charter schools: For years and years, the 25% rule worked well to separate the four classes, but now with SO many schools with enrollments of 300 or less, many of whom do not have a football program, going 25% across the board would put 104-105 schools in each class, but in 1A, only 68 of the 104 current schools in the bottom 25% of all schools actually have a football program. As many more charter schools have applied to open over the next few years, the number of non-football 1A schools will most likely continue to increase.

What the NCHSAA did for the 2017 realignment, to offset this problem of a disproportionate number of 1A schools without football, was go to a 20%/30%/30%/20%, using only the football playing schools (about 380) from the total number (about 420), then when they set the ADM range for 1A/2A/3A/4A, then went back and plugged in the non-football schools in the appropriate class, so we wound up with something like 78 4A schools, 114 3A schools, 116 2A schools (DSA & NCSSM without football), and 111 1A schools (including about 75 with football plus about 36 without it).

Looking ahead to 2021, many are clamoring to return to the old 25/25/25/25, but here's the problem: If we go to a straight 25/25/25/25 and use the same process of taking out the non-football schools to set the range for each class, then add them in after the class range is set, then we wind up with something like: 95 schools in 4A, 96 schools in 3A, 97 schools in 2A (these all seem reasonable) BUT....132 in 1A, with potentially 4 or 5 new ones added every year or two as more charter schools open...and bear in mind, about 36 or more of them do not have football)....perhaps the board of directors or realignment committee or whoever decides such matters would be ok with this, as it would allow both 1A & 4A football playoffs to probably go back to allowing 64 teams to qualify instead of 48. I think the most troubling aspect of this plan (if football schools are taken out when setting the range) is not that there are 132 1A schools, but that the ranges would be as follows: 1A would be ADM up to ~725.....2A would be ADM ~734-1019.....3A would be ADM ~1023-1506.....and 4A would be ADM ~1507 and up

For what it's worth, if they use the same 20/30/30/20 process they used for the 2017 realignment, and take out the non-football schools when setting the class ranges, right now we would be looking at approximately 76 4A schools, 116 3A schools, 115 2A schools, and 111 1A schools (only about 75 with football). The class range cut lines would be as follows: 1A ADM up to 626....2A ADM from 628-1013.....3A ADM from 1014-1596.....4A ADM from 1622-3513

If they go to a straight up 25/25/25/25 and not take into account whether or not a school has a football program....That would put 104-105 schools in each class, and allow 4A to probably go back to 64 teams in the playoffs (and 1A in many sports, not football though), and the cut lines would be as follows: 1A: ADM up to 592.....2A would be ADM 596-943.....3A would be ADM 944-1480......4A would be ADM 1482-3513.

Many schools will probably look much different next year, but remember one thing, just like every year if you go into the A or AA subdivisions for the playoffs: It's not just about whether or not your school goes up or down; it's about how much you rise or fall, RELATIVE TO EVERYBODY ELSE

 

[ocdavis31]

It's only about a year away before the officials in charge of realignment will begin looking at the new set of conferences for the four year cycle to run from 2021-2025....With this year's ADM numbers, I started tinkering with some numbers and realize they have quite a dilemma, and must say that I quickly discovered exactly why they went with the 20/30/30/20 model for the 2017-2021 cycle. As you might guess, if you follow high school sports (or politics) in NC and read a lot of message board banter, the primary complicating issue is charter schools: For years and years, the 25% rule worked well to separate the four classes, but now with SO many schools with enrollments of 300 or less, many of whom do not have a football program, going 25% across the board would put 104-105 schools in each class, but in 1A, only 68 of the 104 current schools in the bottom 25% of all schools actually have a football program. As many more charter schools have applied to open over the next few years, the number of non-football 1A schools will most likely continue to increase.

What the NCHSAA did for the 2017 realignment, to offset this problem of a disproportionate number of 1A schools without football, was go to a 20%/30%/30%/20%, using only the football playing schools (about 380) from the total number (about 420), then when they set the ADM range for 1A/2A/3A/4A, then went back and plugged in the non-football schools in the appropriate class, so we wound up with something like 78 4A schools, 114 3A schools, 116 2A schools (DSA & NCSSM without football), and 111 1A schools (including about 75 with football plus about 36 without it).

Looking ahead to 2021, many are clamoring to return to the old 25/25/25/25, but here's the problem: If we go to a straight 25/25/25/25 and use the same process of taking out the non-football schools to set the range for each class, then add them in after the class range is set, then we wind up with something like: 95 schools in 4A, 96 schools in 3A, 97 schools in 2A (these all seem reasonable) BUT....132 in 1A, with potentially 4 or 5 new ones added every year or two as more charter schools open...and bear in mind, about 36 or more of them do not have football)....perhaps the board of directors or realignment committee or whoever decides such matters would be ok with this, as it would allow both 1A & 4A football playoffs to probably go back to allowing 64 teams to qualify instead of 48. I think the most troubling aspect of this plan (if football schools are taken out when setting the range) is not that there are 132 1A schools, but that the ranges would be as follows: 1A would be ADM up to ~725.....2A would be ADM ~734-1019.....3A would be ADM ~1023-1506.....and 4A would be ADM ~1507 and up

For what it's worth, if they use the same 20/30/30/20 process they used for the 2017 realignment, and take out the non-football schools when setting the class ranges, right now we would be looking at approximately 76 4A schools, 116 3A schools, 115 2A schools, and 111 1A schools (only about 75 with football). The class range cut lines would be as follows: 1A ADM up to 626....2A ADM from 628-1013.....3A ADM from 1014-1596.....4A ADM from 1622-3513

If they go to a straight up 25/25/25/25 and not take into account whether or not a school has a football program....That would put 104-105 schools in each class, and allow 4A to probably go back to 64 teams in the playoffs (and 1A in many sports, not football though), and the cut lines would be as follows: 1A: ADM up to 592.....2A would be ADM 596-943.....3A would be ADM 944-1480......4A would be ADM 1482-3513....I could be wrong but get the feeling from many out there that those with an enrollment in the low 600s would rather not be in 2A against

Many schools will probably look much different next year, but remember one thing, just like every year if you go into the A or AA subdivisions for the playoffs: It's not just about whether or not your school goes up or down; it's about how much you rise or fall, RELATIVE TO EVERYBODY ELSE

Great analysis. Thanks! My Thomasville Bulldogs will be close to the higher or lower end of 1A or 2A either way. Mixed feelings about that. I’m more concerned about the conference, the travel and the rivalries than the classification.

 

[tarheelg]

Great analysis. Thanks! My Thomasville Bulldogs will be close to the higher or lower end of 1A or 2A either way. Mixed feelings about that. I’m more concerned about the conference, the travel and the rivalries than the classification.

I'm working on a draft of 2A Conferences....have a feeling that will bring up a lot of discussion so I'm going to wait a couple of weeks and not take away from discussions of these first few rounds of playoffs while so many teams are still in it

 

[tarheelg]

Great analysis. Thanks! My Thomasville Bulldogs will be close to the higher or lower end of 1A or 2A either way. Mixed feelings about that. I’m more concerned about the conference, the travel and the rivalries than the classification.

Also, were you at Thomasville in 2002?? I drove from Chapel Hill to Thomasville for their Albemarle game in regular season finale that Albemarle won 14-7 on the way to their 2nd straight state championship....Thomasville had their chances in that game with field position but needed more clutch plays on 3rd down

 

[ebhsfan]

How about 5 Classes? Hadn't really done a lot of research on it but this would be how each division would be broken down, ADM wise:
5A- 1506-+, about 74 schools
4A- 1505-1175, about 76 schools
3A- 1174-880, about 75 schools
2A- 879-647, about 73 schools
1A- 646-0, about 81 teams, some of those don't have football.

You could still do Big and Small Playoffs, just with 24 teams in each or have 1 champ in 5A-2A and 2 in 1A, big and small.

 

[SPRedRaider]

How about 5 Classes? Hadn't really done a lot of research on it but this would be how each division would be broken down, ADM wise:
5A- 1506-+, about 74 schools
4A- 1505-1175, about 76 schools
3A- 1174-880, about 75 schools
2A- 879-647, about 73 schools
1A- 646-0, about 81 teams, some of those don't have football.

You could still do Big and Small Playoffs, just with 24 teams in each or have 1 champ in 5A-2A and 2 in 1A, big and small.

Proximity to other schools within class is held with greater emphasis vs. evenly distributed splits for class.

 

[tarheelg]

How about 5 Classes? Hadn't really done a lot of research on it but this would be how each division would be broken down, ADM wise:
5A- 1506-+, about 74 schools
4A- 1505-1175, about 76 schools
3A- 1174-880, about 75 schools
2A- 879-647, about 73 schools
1A- 646-0, about 81 teams, some of those don't have football.

You could still do Big and Small Playoffs, just with 24 teams in each or have 1 champ in 5A-2A and 2 in 1A, big and small.

If they ever go to 5 classes, I hope they would get rid of big/small playoffs except for maybe 1A & 5A.....I always said that if you're going to have split playoffs, it would make more sense to go to 3 classes, no split conferences, then subdivide the playoffs in every sport, not just football....not that I'm fully advocating that, just definitely not for 5 classes as it would cause more split conferences due to geography

 

[ocdavis31]

Also, were you at Thomasville in 2002?? I drove from Chapel Hill to Thomasville for their Albemarle game in regular season finale that Albemarle won 14-7 on the way to their 2nd straight state championship....Thomasville had their chances in that game with field position but needed more clutch plays on 3rd down

Yessir. Watched my first Thomasville game (that I remember) in 1961. I was eight. My older brother was a senior on the 1964 team. Been sitting in the same reserved seats since the mid-eighties. My stint in Chapel Hill was in the seventies and my last child played his senior year at Thomasville in 2013. So I’ve seen the good, the bad and the ugly. Played for George Cushwa and for Allen Brown.
Don’t claim to be an expert but I’ve been there for most of it. Those Red Dog/Blue Dog games were some classics.

 

[ReidsvilleRam90]

Football only conferences.

 

[tarheelg]

Without getting into what new conferences could look like yet, here is a look at the potential cut line between 2A & 3A, and 1A & 2A:

Teams near the 2A/3A cutline appear to be: (whether it goes 20/30/30/20 or 25/25/25/25) Hibriten, Stuart Cramer, St. Pauls, Ledford, Atkins, Cedar Ridge, North Forsyth, SWe. Randolph, Havelock, South Point, and maybe Oak Grove and West Cabarrus (depending on enrollment)

Teams near the 1A/2A cutline appear is not as clear; if we stick with 20/30/30/20, then those near the 1A/2A cutline right now would be: Pine Lake Prep, Eastern Randolph, Kinston, East Bladen, Fairmont, Wallace Rose Hill, North Wilkes, Pender, Draughn, Polk, Bessemer City

If we go to a 25/25/25/25 and don't include the non-football playing schools, then those near the 1A/2A cutline would be: Red Springs, Providence Grove, SW Onslow, Trask, Granville Central, Walkertown, Surry Central, Reidsville, Spring Creek, Trinity

 

[tarheelg]

Football only conferences.

They seem to work well in 1A for those leagues with some football playing and some not.....remember last year we even had a 1A/2A Baseball Only conference, that I believe is not going to be in effect this year....I wouldn't be surprised if we see more football only conferences in 1A, but I'm not sure that solves the dilemma of how many total teams should be in 1A

 

[ocdavis31]

Without getting into what new conferences could look like yet, here is a look at the potential cut line between 2A & 3A, and 1A & 2A:

Teams near the 2A/3A cutline appear to be: (whether it goes 20/30/30/20 or 25/25/25/25) Hibriten, Stuart Cramer, St. Pauls, Ledford, Atkins, Cedar Ridge, North Forsyth, SWe. Randolph, Havelock, South Point, and maybe Oak Grove and West Cabarrus (depending on enrollment)

Teams near the 1A/2A cutline appear is not as clear; if we stick with 20/30/30/20, then those near the 1A/2A cutline right now would be: Pine Lake Prep, Eastern Randolph, Kinston, East Bladen, Fairmont, Wallace Rose Hill, North Wilkes, Pender, Draughn, Polk, Bessemer City

If we go to a 25/25/25/25 and don't include the non-football playing schools, then those near the 1A/2A cutline would be: Red Springs, Providence Grove, SW Onslow, Trask, Granville Central, Walkertown, Surry Central, Reidsville, Spring Creek, Trinity

With the downward trend of Thomasville over the last five years, they likely will be between 600 and 650, likely placing them in that group.

 

[tarheelg]

Yessir. Watched my first Thomasville game (that I remember) in 1961. I was eight. My older brother was a senior on the 1964 team. Been sitting in the same reserved seats since the mid-eighties. My stint in Chapel Hill was in the seventies and my last child played his senior year at Thomasville in 2013. So I’ve seen the good, the bad and the ugly. Played for George Cushwa and for Allen Brown.
Don’t claim to be an expert but I’ve been there for most of it. Those Red Dog/Blue Dog games were some classics.

Yes, I remember scoreboard watching and being surprised that Thomasville beat Albemarle in the regular season in 2001, then lost at home in the playoffs.....in 2002 & 2003, I was writing a weekly 1A column for what used to be nchsfootball.com and had to be there to see the state title contenders....I had seen my Gates Co. guys 6 times that year already, and on that cool Nov. night, I decided to make a 75-90 minute trip to Thomasville for a close game instead of a 3 hour trip for a 50-0 game between Gates & Perquimans....I also saw the infamous Albemarle @ Jordan-Matthews game in 2003 when Albemarle must have suffered something like 27 penalties for about 300 yards in a 21-0 win; their only time being held under 60 in the regular season in a 3-4 year stretch against anybody Thomasville

 

[tarheelg]

With the downward trend of Thomasville over the last five years, they likely will be between 600 and 650, likely placing them in that group.

Yes, I only listed teams within 5 or 6 spots of the cut line in both directions

 

[tarheelg]

With the downward trend of Thomasville over the last five years, they likely will be between 600 and 650, likely placing them in that group.

Thomasville is 3 spots higher than Pine Lake Prep this year....so if you have a large senior class this year and a small freshman class next year, and most of the others around you on the list stay the same, then yes, you could be right there at the cut line if we go 25/25/25/25.....if it stays 20/30/30/20, I think you will stay in 2A

 

[btango]

How about 5 Classes? Hadn't really done a lot of research on it but this would be how each division would be broken down, ADM wise:
5A- 1506-+, about 74 schools
4A- 1505-1175, about 76 schools
3A- 1174-880, about 75 schools
2A- 879-647, about 73 schools
1A- 646-0, about 81 teams, some of those don't have football.

You could still do Big and Small Playoffs, just with 24 teams in each or have 1 champ in 5A-2A and 2 in 1A, big and small.

Coaches dream! Ten state champions!!!

Seriously, every potential scenario needs to be looked at.

Have to do the alignment without football or it will be crazy. When they did it with all sports a few years ago some schools only had four football playing schools in their conference.

The issue on five classes in the past has been where the schools were located. About a dozen years ago during the realignment process there was a huge map in the NCHSAA meeting room. It had the state broken down into five classes. Colored thumb tacks were placed for each classification. The schools were very spread out. Not sure if it would work any better now. One of the biggest complaints of the schools is split conferences both from schools that are in the conference and those that are not. Five classes would require more or some strange conference setups.

 

[ocdavis31]

Thomasville is 3 spots higher than Pine Lake Prep this year....so if you have a large senior class this year and a small freshman class next year, and most of the others around you on the list stay the same, then yes, you could be right there at the cut line if we go 25/25/25/25.....if it stays 20/30/30/20, I think you will stay in 2A

Could be. We're averaging losing 25 to 35 for several years in a row. But don't know when a larger class may come along and swing things. My best hope is that we are in a conference with rivals and good gates. And that we get back to the point of having eighty kids come out for football, rather than 50.

 

[tarheelg]

Could be. We're averaging losing 25 to 35 for several years in a row. But don't know when a larger class may come along and swing things. My best hope is that we are in a conference with rivals and good gates. And that we get back to the point of having eighty kids come out for football, rather than 50.

I guess your 80 or 50 includes guys who wind up on JV??.....I know you can't believe everything you hear but back in the 90s, the word regarding Hertford Co. (3A at the time) was that they had close to 200 come out, and they kept about 50 for varsity and 50 for JV....In the 10-12 years I followed Gates Co. (1A the whole time from early 1990s-mid 2000s) and the last 14 years working at South Granville (3A from 2005-2009, 2A ever since, but 2A numbers since Fall 2007 when Granville Central opened), I don't know that either of those programs ever had 80 total, including JVs

 

[ocdavis31]

I guess your 80 or 50 includes guys who wind up on JV??.....I know you can't believe everything you hear but back in the 90s, the word regarding Hertford Co. (3A at the time) was that they had close to 200 come out, and they kept about 50 for varsity and 50 for JV....In the 10-12 years I followed Gates Co. (1A the whole time from early 1990s-mid 2000s) and the last 14 years working at South Granville (3A from 2005-2009, 2A ever since, but 2A numbers since Fall 2007 when Granville Central opened), I don't know that either of those programs ever had 80 total, including JVs

Yes. I think the last jv game, they dressed 17 or 18 with 21 on the varsity. Hopefully, they’ll bring up the whole jv team for the playoffs. A couple of players who could help them and another two weeks or more of practice. Even experiencing the playoffs from the sideline has value in rebuilding a program.

 

[TGT]

DO AWAY WITH REALIGNMENT FOREVER ... here's the plan. I think I first posted this about 10 or so years ago. I've adjusted some of the numbers from the original post. Go ahead and shoot holes in it. Thanks.

Currently NCHSAA divides its 417 member schools into 66 conferences and then sends 224 of its approximately 375 football schools into the playoffs in eight divisions.

Some NC Preps posters say 8 divisions is great, others say go back to the old 4-class system.

Here’s my compromise 6-class playoff plan:

1. Cut the number of qualifiers by 32 by having six classes, still with 5 rounds of playoffs. They are called 6-A, 5-A, 4-A, 3-A, 2-A and 1-A. By doing this, 192 teams (instead of 224) make the post-season. This would certainly eliminate a lot of the teams with 4-7 and 3-8 records from making the field but a team with a losing overall record could still make it with a top-3 conference finish. Schools playing a tough non-conference schedule wouldn’t be penalized … they would still make the playoffs based on a top-3 conference finish. It would also end forever the calls for the “2A vs. 2AA one-extra game to decide the overall 2A champ.”

2. To pick the 192 for the playoffs, you divide the state into 60 six-team or seven-team conferences (six less than now). As more schools come into existence, they are placed into conferences by geography. The top three teams from each conference earn playoff berths, making for 180 teams. Twelve more at-large or wild card teams are also picked to complete the 192-team playoff pool, using the best overall records among all fourth-place teams. After the 192 teams are identified, rank them by the current ADM order and divide by six. Just as it is now, all the number one conference teams are given seeding priority, followed by No. 2 teams, No.3 teams and No. 4 teams. Conference teams that finish fifth can’t advance.

3. All conferences are in theory “split” conferences with no class designation made. It's the North State Conference, not the North State 2-A Conference.

Geography is the No. 1 consideration for grouping teams for conference play (but not the only consideration – teams must be reasonably close in size, for example, you wouldn’t put W-S Carver with 582 ADM in a conference with East Forsyth with with 1,784 even though they are 4 miles apart. Reidsville, with 708, could be in a conference with Rockingham County, with 1123. Maybe set the difference limit at 500. I doubt there would be many instances where a wide variance was needed.

They play a conference schedule, a conference tournament, etc. Then, when the "current ADMs" are announced then, AND NOT UNTIL THEN, place schools in divisions for the post-season.

4. The NCHSAA is already uses this realignment-by-geography thinking anyway. There are NINE split conferences in the current alignment. It would be possible (but not likely) for a conference to send its members to as many as 4 of the 6 different divisions.

5. This geography-based conference realignment plan saves a bunch on travel costs and maintains (or re-establishes) natural rivalries. It would be the last re-alignment ever needed although yearly adjustments would have to be made as new schools join the association. And by doing the pairings based on current ADMs, big fluctuations in ADMs would be taken care of for that post season.

6. Also suggested, but not really part of the playoff plan:
-- Teams who have met earlier in the season don’t play in the first round.
-- Cut the regular season back to 10 games and begin the playoffs one week earlier.

 

[tarheelg]

DO AWAY WITH REALIGNMENT FOREVER ... here's the plan. I think I first posted this about 10 or so years ago. I've adjusted some of the numbers from the original post. Go ahead and shoot holes in it. Thanks.

Currently NCHSAA divides its 417 member schools into 66 conferences and then sends 224 of its approximately 375 football schools into the playoffs in eight divisions.

Some NC Preps posters say 8 divisions is great, others say go back to the old 4-class system.

Here’s my compromise 6-class playoff plan:

1. Cut the number of qualifiers by 32 by having six classes, still with 5 rounds of playoffs. They are called 6-A, 5-A, 4-A, 3-A, 2-A and 1-A. By doing this, 192 teams (instead of 224) make the post-season. This would certainly eliminate a lot of the teams with 4-7 and 3-8 records from making the field but a team with a losing overall record could still make it with a top-3 conference finish. Schools playing a tough non-conference schedule wouldn’t be penalized … they would still make the playoffs based on a top-3 conference finish. It would also end forever the calls for the “2A vs. 2AA one-extra game to decide the overall 2A champ.”

2. To pick the 192 for the playoffs, you divide the state into 60 six-team or seven-team conferences (six less than now). As more schools come into existence, they are placed into conferences by geography. The top three teams from each conference earn playoff berths, making for 180 teams. Twelve more at-large or wild card teams are also picked to complete the 192-team playoff pool, using the best overall records among all fourth-place teams. After the 192 teams are identified, rank them by the current ADM order and divide by six. Just as it is now, all the number one conference teams are given seeding priority, followed by No. 2 teams, No.3 teams and No. 4 teams. Conference teams that finish fifth can’t advance.

3. All conferences are in theory “split” conferences with no class designation made. It's the North State Conference, not the North State 2-A Conference.

Geography is the No. 1 consideration for grouping teams for conference play (but not the only consideration – teams must be reasonably close in size, for example, you wouldn’t put W-S Carver with 582 ADM in a conference with East Forsyth with with 1,784 even though they are 4 miles apart. Reidsville, with 708, could be in a conference with Rockingham County, with 1123. Maybe set the difference limit at 500. I doubt there would be many instances where a wide variance was needed.

They play a conference schedule, a conference tournament, etc. Then, when the "current ADMs" are announced then, AND NOT UNTIL THEN, place schools in divisions for the post-season.

4. The NCHSAA is already uses this realignment-by-geography thinking anyway. There are NINE split conferences in the current alignment. It would be possible (but not likely) for a conference to send its members to as many as 4 of the 6 different divisions.

5. This geography-based conference realignment plan saves a bunch on travel costs and maintains (or re-establishes) natural rivalries. It would be the last re-alignment ever needed although yearly adjustments would have to be made as new schools join the association. And by doing the pairings based on current ADMs, big fluctuations in ADMs would be taken care of for that post season.

6. Also suggested, but not really part of the playoff plan:
-- Teams who have met earlier in the season don’t play in the first round.
-- Cut the regular season back to 10 games and begin the playoffs one week earlier.

Lot of good ideas....I'm guessing you're not advocating for conference tournaments in football though.....and by the way, I don't like them in baseball either....(Why over-tax and burn out your pitching staff 3-4 days before the state playoffs?)

 

[TGT]

I'm not talking about football only. I follow Reidsville ... why send an activity bus with 10 kids on it to Carrboro for a tennis match? This plan eliminates that.

 

[tarheelg]

I'm not talking about football only. I follow Reidsville ... why send an activity bus with 10 kids on it to Carrboro for a tennis match? This plan eliminates that.

I have a feeling Carrboro & Reidsville will not be in the same league by 2021....looks like McMichael & Morehead will be dropping to 2A...guessing the Piedmont 2A conferences will look a lot different then, as there figures to be a lot of up and down between 1A/2A and 2A/3A

 

[btango]

Lot of good ideas....I'm guessing you're not advocating for conference tournaments in football though.....and by the way, I don't like them in baseball either....(Why over-tax and burn out your pitching staff 3-4 days before the state playoffs?)

Have you heard the baseball coaches are voting on whether to request subdividing from th NCHSAA Board?

 

[tarheelg]

Have you heard the baseball coaches are voting on whether to request subdividing from th NCHSAA Board?

No idea....will have to check in with some of the baseball coaches I know