Updated with THIS YEAR's ADM numbers....still guessing until we see the games happen this week, not to mention the final run of adjusted maxpreps rankings
Updated Projections with new ADM numbers
- Thread starter tarheelg
- Start date
If it shakes out this way, randleman will not make it to round four. Four home games for Reidsville as long as they keep winning.
I think this Randleman team is good though
It definitely could be, as I could be wrong, and things could change, but if Reidsville gets 2 and East Rutherford gets 7, those two would play in 2nd Rd if they both get out of the 1st Rd
Why randleman has a good group of hard nose kids and if they get a #1 seed you want beat them at home..
nope...would be reidsville vs. east rutherford...tough early round matchup...............
Why? They are unbeaten, what more can they do. If they are 2A West then they should be in the running with Reidsville. Personally there is no doubt in my mind that Reidsville is better. And I'm no Randleman fan. But they deserve credit and are a good football team.
Why would Randleman not make it to round four and play Reidsville? They have a very good football team. I could easily see them in the western finals against Reidsville and losing to the Rams
If Randleman does go 2a west, I think they would be Reidsville's biggest threat coming from a Reidsville fan.
But I disagree with the part of us not winning.
You have to remember, the NCHSAA has now decided that seedings should be based on politically correct rankings, i.e. teams that win by more than 3 tds are to be penalized and teams that don't win by 40 or 50 points are to be rewarded because they are good sports in not beating the opposition senseless.
It would be a dog fight I truely believe oh and I’m a tiger. Lol
Well, FWIW, Simmons would today make you about a 10 point underdog if you meet up with the Rams.
Tarboro has been declared ineligible for the playoffs. (500+ points scored, 25 allowed) lolYou have to remember, the NCHSAA has now decided that seedings should be based on politically correct rankings, i.e. teams that win by more than 3 tds are to be penalized and teams that don't win by 40 or 50 points are to be rewarded because they are good sports in not beating the opposition senseless.
Kind of a fine line between trying to play your best and being a good sport about scoring. That line to me is around/about the 4th quarter. But have to play players.You have to remember, the NCHSAA has now decided that seedings should be based on politically correct rankings, i.e. teams that win by more than 3 tds are to be penalized and teams that don't win by 40 or 50 points are to be rewarded because they are good sports in not beating the opposition senseless.
Curious: How much do the Tigers return from last year's team??...I remember underestimating them last year and picking Nash Central to beat them in 2nd Rd....then thought....'Well, they will get absolutely crushed when they face East Duplin'.....but they surprised me again by keeping that one MUCH closer than I expected....here at South Granville, we had a senior on last year's team that was hoping to play Randleman in 4th Rd (had we at South Granville gotten by North Davidson, and had Randleman gotten by East Duplin) since he grew up there and probably knew a lot of the players; family moved here when he was in middle school....just saying if I was filling out a bracket, I would probably pick Reidsville, but will not be looking past them and dismissing Randleman as having no chance like I did last year when they played East Duplin, especially if they return a lot from last year's team
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Yes....first once the running clock gets to winding, you're not going to score but so many points unless it turns into a turnover fest for the team already behind, as you're probably only going to have the ball for 2 offensive series in a quarter instead of 4 or 5 with a regular clock...and you can't blame those reserve guys for wanting to score, and maybe more importantly, you can't blame the defense (starters or reserves) for trying to keep more points off of the board...was it Bobby Bowden or Steve Spurrier in the 90s?, when asked about running up the score that it's not his offense's job to keep the score down, but the other team's defense....I remember Spurrier once commented that he's going to keep trying to score as long as you keep trying to stop him......which I guess means if your starters are in (I mean, isn't it ALWAYS the defense's job to stop the other team's offense??)...I think it's a much different game in college than high school though...even the low D1 and FCS and D2 teams recruit players and have a certain level of size and talent, but in high school games, you'll often see teams so overmatched that the 2nd string or 3rd string or JV 8 quarter guys come in and still can't be stopped...the running clock might hold them to 2 scoring drives instead of 5 but you still cannot expect them to kneel on the ball with more than 2 minutes on the clock....ridiculous about the coach in Connecticut a few years ago that was reprimanded (maybe had to pay a fine?...can't remember) because he violated a sportsmanship policy of winning by more than 50 points
Well we started a lot of sophomores last year the defense was all sophomores offensive line sophomores except 1 senior and the quarterback was a senior we’ve gotten a lot better. We where young.
Also, don't forget that Randleman could slide to the East by the way....could also slide up to 2AA East, but South Granville would go up first I believe
Yes, but if you look at this year's numbers compared to last year's numbers, probably at least 75% of teams are smaller, some of those by a few, some by a lot, some by a WHOLE lot....don't forget it's not just about the size of your team, it's not even your team relative to the other 112 teams in 2A......it's about your team, relative to the other 64 who qualify for the playoffs
They’re a little overhyped, nothing impressive about there victories, in my opinion, compare your margin of victories vs HPA. Also, they should have beaten Jordan Matthews worse than they did. East Rutherford will challenge you guys. They have 4 players that can take it the distance, and no one in 2A will run them down, and catch them from behind, no one. They are led by Demetrius Mauney at running back, 6’1” 190lb shrine bowler. He’s a D1 recruit at safety and running back. In addition to Mauney, East’s quarterback, receiver, and backup running back are all just some flat out burners. Their D leaves little to be desired, though. Offensive line wasn’t that impressive, either. I honestly have you guys playing Mt. Heritage again to advance to the state championship, but the top seeds in 2A West best beware of East Rutherford, they are more than capable of upsetting a higher seed having an off night.
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I gave Randleman the slight edge based on that Ledford game. But east and mh will also be test when we cross that bridge.
Thom
Thomasville has gone from 734 (2015) to 700 (2016) to 680 (2017) to 659 (2018). The average in our conference is 882. And that counts Oak Grove with three grades.
At that rate, we’re headed to 1A pretty soon.
Especially if they go back to 25/25/25/25 in 2021....it's next year's number that will get used for realignment.....usually not the exact numbers that come out in Oct/Nov for football but most schools' numbers won't change but so much after that....going back to 1A definitely a possibility if you take another huge drop next year....if you stay 2A, don't be surprised if the 2A conferences in the area look different....I'm expecting Ledford, North Davidson, and Oak Grove to go to 3A at next realignment, and McMichael and either Rockingham or Morehead to come down to 2A....Carver might also be headed for 1A, and there may be some more changes I didn't notice....Eastern Randolph looked a lot lower than usual today too, but you know they'd put Reidsville with the other schools in their county....question then is do they keep them with BY, Graham, Cummings, DSA, NCSSM, Carrboro? I look for them to put those 3 in Rockingham Co. with some other Triad area schools, possibly TW Andrews, if Atkins goes up to 3A, you could see a conference with Reidsville, McMichael, the other Rock. Co. school coming down (can't remember if Morehead or Rock. with low numbers this year), with West Stokes, Walkertown, and/or Andrews....and they could put the two Surry schools in Mtn Valley 1A/2A, (or maybe not?), probably still enough 2As in Randolph & Davidson counties to have 2 conferences, anyway I'm not exepcting to see Reidsville in the Mid-State in 2021, Jordan-Matthews could go back in Mid-State or in PAC...you could see the 2A Davidson schools & 2A Randolph schools together in a huge conference, or keep two leagues in that region...you could see South Rowan go to the Rocky River with Mt Pleasant, Forest Hills, Anson, West Stanly, CATA.....don't be surprised if East Montgomery goes back to 1A....anyway, just rambling with possibilities....wondering where we will go at South Granville....hoping to avoid those non-football schools of NCSSM & DSA....we were with them for 8 years before the current cycle started, i'm hoping for four more years of having a league where everybody has a football team
Looks good, but I have a question. Would they not seed the teams by their overall record before using MaxPreps rankings? If so shouldn't Ashe County be seeded above Shelby, 9-2 versus 8-3. Just wondering.
Remember it used to be based on overall record (10 game record, dropping 1 non-conference game if you played 11), and if teams were tied, they would have a draw....so a few years ago, they went to using the maxpreps ranking as the tiebreaker in a tier (1s, 2s, 3s, wild cards) instead of having a draw....then a year or two after that, they just went to letting the maxpreps rankings seed each tier, and that's where we're at now, with other differences being: Now, the maxpreps rankings also determine who qualifies for the playoffs instead of overall record (10 game), as you still very often had a random draw for the last wild card spot(s) between a bunch of teams that reported 5-5 or 4-6 records, and new this year (actually going back to last winter with basketball), they use the "Adjusted" maxpreps rankings, that are not supposed to factor in margin of victory.....the adjusted portion actually does take pure overall record into account more than the actual maxpreps website rankings because of the role that margin of victory (or lack thereof) plays in determining rankings, but there is still also room for strength of schedule to matter for something (just not as much as in the regular maxpreps rankings, as margin of victory is the main way the computers determine how strong your opponents (and their opponents...and their opponents) really are
Thanks tarheelg. I’m impressed that anybody can interpret the nuances of the current system, much less the details of how we got from there to here. I’m equally impressed (though not in a good way) that the NCHSAA can tweak the system every year and never seem to get it quite right. Even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while.
Scroll to the very bottom of the blog post link and it is explained....but I will try again right here: First, I could be wrong, but if I'm interpreting this year's new playoff qualifying correctly, Nash Central, along with Anson, Red Springs, and maybe one I cannot remember are "buried"; or stuck below a team in their conference final standings that they lost to in a head to head matchup (NC to FC, Anson to FH, RS to Fairmont) who has a much lower ranking and will not get in...in the Ea. Pl. Conf., Farmville is credited with a 3rd place finish, and in the playoff qualifying format they used last year for winter and spring sports with these same standings, Farmville Central would have been a lock to make the playoffs as a wild card as the 3rd place finisher, then after all the 3rd place finishers across the state got in as wild cards, they would come back and start taking 4th place finishers, by adjusted maxpreps ranking, so the few (if any) that got left out would have lower rankings....Like last year, they said this year that no 4th place team will get in ahead of a 3rd place team; what's different this year is that not all 3rd place teams are automatically going to get wild cards for being 3rd place, instead when East Rutherford and Eastern Randolph and Franklin and Whiteville (3rd place teams with high rankings) cross over as wild cards in the playoffs, the 4th place teams in their respective conferences move up to the teams eligible for a wild card....and basically yes, most teams whose maxpreps ranking is 64 or higher will get in, but not all, because for Nash Central, Anson, and Red Springs, that conference loss to a team that is not going to make the playoffs is going to keep them out of the playoffs, because of the rules about not being able to leap frog anybody in your conference; that is you can't make the playoffs ahead of anybody who finished ahead of you in your final conference standings....if FC & NC are tied, FC gets the edge because they won head to head, FC 3rd, NC 4th, FC's ranking right now is a 78, not going to get them in...NC's best hope is if FC has to forfeit either of their two conference wins for some reason (same with Anson/Forest Hills in Rocky River and Red Springs/Fairmont in Three Rivers)...while Washington getting in does not violate this rule, as everybody ahead of them in conference would have gotten in before them
