RPIs are out but wrong
- Thread starter Deana_King
- Start date
Correct a #2 cannot be above a #1.
9-1 Robbinsville would be a #1 seed and smc champ.
I'm saying you would love to get us up there on 6 hour bus ride and beat us I'm saying we could probably take the ride and still beat Robbinsville at Big Oaks
BK what would you use to determine SOS?
I think that’s one of those subjective things that humans come up with. But maybe that’s just me.
Simmons is a guy ain’t it? Maxpreps is part of that super secret sauce formula nobody knows anything about. I don’t know anything about Massy.
On a side note, when do you sleep? You posted at 2AM and then 5:45AM. Lay down man!!!
Not necessarily. It factors in your Opponents Opponents Win % as well.
The two components of SOS is OWP & OOWP that's it. It's just what equation you put them in. NCAA's is....
2(owp) + oowp/3
The NC RPI's is...
.40(owp) + .30(oowp)
Maxpreps unknown
But whatever the equation use is subjective there's not perfect formal but I've noticed in the pass that they're usually all pretty close.
Like in the case of Mt Airy & Rville in all three above Rville has the stronger sos.
Congratulations to Mtn Heritage though a 1A school made it to #16 in the 2A West.
They would be #12 in the 1A West.
Don't know why they haven't corrected this yet. Reidsville is #1 in ether.
They would be #12 in the 1A West.
Don't know why they haven't corrected this yet. Reidsville is #1 in ether.
Yes he's a guy that uses a computer to generate the picks. At least that's what I've always thought.
He doesn't explain how he calculates his sos but he does his predictions and spread by using his power rates.
Example (this will change somewhat because I'm using his last week's PR)
So with last week's PR he would have Rabun GA beating Rville by 25 points. But you can look at last week's predictions and see that even if he gets the winning team correct he's spread can way off.
My question is how he comes to his sos because for example he had Starmount ranked #17 in all 1A and a sos of 47 while Mitchell has a sos of 22. Maxpreps has Starmount ranked #11 & sos of -35.3 and Mitchell's 30.1.
If you use the NCAA equation for sos you'll have Startmont much closer to Mitchell as well. The two teams are much closer in the NC RPI as well and if you combined West & East, Starmount would be ranked #11.
The problem with strength of schedule is you either use oowp or someone 's rankings (opinion). The thing I like about rpi is that is transparent.
Well thing is that's what everyone uses for sos it's just in what equation they use them.
As far as how does that show your team's sos? Say if you play a 5-0 team while that looks good for you owp the question is why are they 5-0 who was their opponents? Did they just beat a bunch of winless teams or teams with good records themselves? While not perfect itself the oowp gives a little more of an idea of the quality a 5-0 you just beat.
Has the NCHSAA ever got anything right the 1st 2nd or on & on times they try ?
Example
Hayesville plays some home school team that plays other homeschool teams except for hayesville. Hayesville could very likely have good oowp even though those teams are bad.
Again, what is you system? You say include sos, but how?
I guess that could be true to a certain extent but that team that lost to Hayesville ether they'll beat or lose to the other home school team so ether hayesvilles owp or oowp will drop.
Like I say there's no perfect system and like last year the RPI and maxpreps etc wasn't that much if any difference and not much right now. But I'd rather have a system that anyone can do and you know exactly what it is compared to some company their computers and secret formula.
I wouldn’t look at Albemarle too much they are without their starting qb all season so far but he should be coming back in the next few weeks. Different offense with him in.
Ok then how you going to figure SOS? As @Old Mountaineer has documented EVERY system uses OOWP in their formulas to determine SOS. I know not everyone thinks this system is perfect but as has been stated at least it’s transparent. As BK suggested in another thread perhaps tweaking the weight of each component is the answer but I don’t believe eliminating OOWP entirely is the solution.
If you remember MaxPreps had a different formula for seeding than what you keep comparing to the rpi .
I find fault with things like the NCAA tournament for the same reason. But wouldn’t it be just as transparent without oowp?
I’ll use Thomasville as an example, not because we deserve special treatment, but because I know their circumstances best. We have benefitted from the split conference champ part of the equation.
In conference, we have had weak teams such as Lexington, South Davidson and West Davidson. We have to play them, hurting our owp. They naturally have scheduled weaker non-conference teams. So a double whammy by using oowp. Thomasville has zero control over that.
Non-conference games are often scheduled a year or two in advance. Again, you have little knowledge of who your opponent schedules or their relative strengths.
I just think that, to level the field as much as possible (no, there’s no perfect system), eliminate as much as possible those things that a team can’t control.
The problem with using rankings is that no one sees every team, not even their highlights. They often rank teams based on past history or reputation. Teams from larger population areas receive more press coverage and usually higher rankings. Another factor in rankings is that people are swayed by looking at final margins of victory thus encouraging teams to run up scores on other teams.
I keep comparing to maxpreps because before the RPI it's what the state used for ranking and seating. And yes of course I remember because when I do the comparison I also mention that they had a different formula a secret one. While they themselves post their own sos they don't say how they come up it ,other than that they say they use the wp & and when a team beats a higher rank opponent but that's all they disclose. So what's in the secret sauce?
But I also compare to them because they're a popular site and they list their sos and I've mentioned Simmons for the same reason to show that usually with all the complaints about the RPI that they're usually not that far off especially when it comes to sos.
Not sure if you preferred MaxPreps calling the shots for the state but remember even though they show Mt Airy with a much worse sos than Rville & Tarboro at this point all are undefeated then why are they ranked #1?
I'm to the point now, just go back to predetermined and avoid conference rematches until 3rd round.
Only use RPI to determine home and away.
Only use RPI to determine home and away.
Ain’t that kinda like it is now? East/west know line is Randolph/Chatham and they use RPI for seeding? Or do you mean conference X champ plays conference y 4th finisher? Every year? Or pods? I don’t think a lot of people liked either.
Conference ABC #1 draws Confernce DEF #4
Confernece GHI #2 draws Conference JKL #3
So on and so forth, the ONLY draw back to that old system is it takes non conference games out and they'll mean absolutely nothing. I do like that non conference games do factor in to some degree now.
Confernece GHI #2 draws Conference JKL #3
So on and so forth, the ONLY draw back to that old system is it takes non conference games out and they'll mean absolutely nothing. I do like that non conference games do factor in to some degree now.
I wonder how long will it take for the NCHSAA to fix all of the mistakes?
They updated the RPI @ 10:14 this morning and they still haven't figured out that Reidsville is 2A and Mtn Heritage is 1A
It is the NCHSAA so they cannot figure out a lot of things. They enjoy their pay but not the job. lol
Maybe someday the NCHSAA will get an AI Android that can do their job and do it right and we can say goodbye to the NCHSAA. lol
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