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2A Conference Breakdown with 2 Weeks Left

tarheelg

Well-Known Member
Sep 21, 2001
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Creedmoor, NC
Mountain Valley: If Ashe can beat Starmount, they will win the 2A division and be seeded in the tier of 1 seeds, if Ashe loses to Starmount, then the door would be open for Wilkes Central to jump to the 1 seed if they run the table, which includes a trip to East Wilkes

Western Highlands: Hendersonville controls their own destiny to be the seeded in the tier of 1 seeds, but Mountain Heritage beating Mitchell last week changed the whole complexion of things here, giving MH a chance to be the outright 1 in the league overall, and of course in the 2A division, but they still need Polk to beat Hendersonville for that to happen, and if that happens, then Hendersonville would drop from the tier of 1 seeds to a Wild Card, assuming Polk also beats Owen this week

WNC Athletic: Franklin has already clinched the 2A division, only question is whether or not they will finish undefeated in conference, Smoky Mountain has already clinched a playoff berth, but will be a wild card (and not a 2 or 3 seed) unless they beat both Pisgah and North Henderson

South Mountain: Shelby & Crest will play for the outright conference title, but regardless of what happens that night, the Golden Lions are looking good for the 1 seed from the 2A division....for them to drop, they would have to lose to Draughn and Crest AND have East Burke run the table, beating Chase and Kings Mountain, East Burke has essentially clinched a wild card berth though, as will the winner of the RS Central/East Rutherford game, the loser of the RSC/ER game can still get in if they win their other remaining game, Draughn is currently one of my last 5 in, they could become a lock with an upset of Shelby this week but I don't think anybody is going to bet the farm on that one

Big South: Strange situation as described by Sasha98 i believe it was a couple of weeks ago on a different thread, and I could be wrong, but I think it has taken an even crazier turn: While Huss is in a position to lose the rest of their games and still be considered the winner of the 2A division, they will only have a 30% winning percentage in their overall record, unless they beat either Forestview or Ashbrook, if Huss wins one of those, then they will be in the tier of 1 seeds, but the way I read the NCHSAA handbook for this year's football playoff qualifiers, it appears that if Huss finishes 3-8, they will not be taken as a 1 seed or even as a wild card, and will be left out of the playoffs, Cramer should get a wild card berth even if they don't win another game, it's not looking good for LKN Charter either, they would need to beat both Ashbrook and North Gaston to get in the playoff discussion, and by the way, IF that happened, they would be a 1 seed, not a wild card, unless Cramer also rose up at the end with a big upset win or two

Western Piedmont: The 1 spot will come down to the Carver/West Stokes game this Friday, and the loser would be 2, North Surry appears to be in the best spot for the 3, which they would clinch by running the table, which appears very possible with South Stokes and Forbush left, Forbush needs to win at least one of their remaining games to get in the playoff mix, Surry Central needs to win both, going to be impossible for all three of these to make it because they play each other, very possible that no wild cards come out of this league, unless it's North Surry, but if they take care of business they would be a 3, not a wild card

Southern District 7: The East Lincoln/Maiden game this Friday is for first place, and the Lincolnton/Maiden game next week can still play a role in it, but these three teams are the ones vying for the 1/2/3 spots, it's hard to pick against East Lincoln, since they haven't lost a game in forever, but note that Maiden would drop from being tied for first right now to the 3 if they lose both of these games, West Caldwell is also going to be a playoff team, and could jump to a seeded spot and not a wild card, only if they run the table, which includes Lincolnton, Newton-Conover needs two wins to lock themselves in (though it's mathematically possible with just 1), and their schedule is favorable to that, playing the two teams at the bottom over the next two weeks, West Lincoln is in the same boat, I like their chances to beat Bandys this week but it'll be a different story next week East Lincoln...my projections right now have WL as one of the last five in if they finish 5-6, 2-5, but a couple of surprise winners in other conferences could bump them out, as 2-5 (only a .286 win%) would lose tiebreaker to a team that's 5-6, 2-3 in conference or 5-6, 2-4 i conference

Rocky River: The Monroe/Forest Hills game will decide the 1/2 seeds, the 3 will be decided by the Parkwood/Mt. Pleasant game, CATA has to either Forest Hills or Parkwood to get in the discussion or both to be locked in (not many betting on that happening), West Stanly has to beat Monroe this week to stay alive, then beat Mount Pleasant next week to get in, which could actually make them the 3 if that happened, but not many folks are going to bet on that happening

Central Carolina: Your guess is as good as mine on how it's going to shake out, very good chance for a three way tie for either 1st or 2nd, maybe 3rd...Salisbury and West Davidson are for all intents and purposes locked out of playoff contention, they play each other this week but both can play spoiler to others' hopes next week: The Thomasville/North Rowan game would clinch a 1 seed for North Rowan if they can win it, as they've already beaten Lexington, but if Thomasville beats NR, they would also have to beat Lexington to avoid a three way tie, unless Lexington slips against East Davidson, who will be most likely be a wild card even losing to Lexington, as long as they beat West Davidson (see above)
 
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PAC 6: Another Your guess is as good as mine situation, beyond first place anyway, here we know that Andrews is in the best position to get the 1, but the 2&3 are up for grabs between Randleman, Wheatmore, Eastern Randolph, and Providence Grove, there is a scenario where all four of those teams make the playoffs, and of course two of them would be wild cards, among these four teams, if you want a 2 or 3 seed, you better get to at least 3 conference wins, if you want a wild card playoff berth, you better get to 5 wins overall

Mid State: Another league that I cannot figure out, Reidsville is still in the best position, but they have had some awfully close games to be the heavy favorite, intriguing games the last 2 weeks between Reidsville/Bartlett Yancey, Graham/Cummings, Graham/Bartlett Yancey, and Cummings/Jordan-Matthews, anything can happen, and any of these teams can still get the 1,2, or 3, but with the overall records looking like they do, the only lock right now is Reidsville, with BY also in a good spot, JM, Graham, and Cummings better win their last two if they want to make the playoffs

Northern Carolina: Bunn has all but clinched this league, they can make it official this week against Franklinton, even if Franklinton shocks the world and beats Bunn, they are still looking at a wild card as they have lost to the teams that currently sit second and third, in Roanoke Rapids and South Granville, speaking of RR and SG, their game on Nov. 6 could determine the 2/3 spots, and by the way Franklinton is looking good for a wild card, even if they don't beat Bunn, provided they beat Southern Vance on the Red Rams' senior night in two weeks

Four County: Clinton looks pretty stout, they will be the 1 from the 2A division, East Bladen is in a good spot to get a 3, while Midway and West Bladen are both looking like wild cards, with six wins each already

Three Rivers: Fairmont's recent wins over South Columbus and Red Springs have put them on top of the 2A division, with St. Pauls and East Columbus left on their schedule, Red Springs is still going to be in the playoffs as a 3 if they can win their last two over South Columbus and South Robeson, South Columbus must beat Red Springs or Whiteville to be a playoff team

Eastern Carolina: The Kinston/Greene Central game last week kind of elevated Kinston to the top of the mountain, where they will stay provided they can finish strong, including winning at Ayden-Grifton next week, Greene Ce. is still looking like the 2, provided they take care of Goldsboro next week, the Ayden-Grifton/Goldsboro game this week is likely for the 3 seed, with the losing team there making the playoffs as a wild card

Eastern Plains: Shocker two weeks in a row...We thought SW Edgecombe was the dominant team to beat, and they get thumped on their home field by Washington, so we figure Washington is the team to beat, then they lose to Beddingfield, the Bruins can win the conference with a win over SWE, or SWE can force a three way tie with a win at Beddingfield next week, I also have North Johnston as the last team in the field of 64 in 2A, projecting them to not win another game (SWE, Washington), but that is a precarious spot at 5-6, 1-4

East Central: East Duplin beating Northside surprised some people last week, the Panthers now control their own destiny in terms of conference finish and playoff seeding, but they are far from out of the woods with North Brunswick and Croatan still on the schedule, don't let Northside's overall record fool you, remember 4 of their 7 losses were non-conference games forfeited after the fact, which they won on the field, their loss to ED last week seemingly guarantees they will be on the road in the playoffs from the first round on, nobody sitting at 1 or 2 in the overall 2AA East is going to want to see this Northside team in second round as a 7,8,9,10

Northeastern-Coastal: the Northeastern/Hertford game this week is for first place, Holmes has put itself in a position to get third if it can win the se last two games, First Flight already had 5 wins and could get to 6 this week with Currituck visiting, while Pasquotank is sitting at 4-5, and have Bertie coming in for senior night this weeks, a Pasq. win over Bertie would get them into my last five in the field of 64

*****-Remember, no matter your record, a team will be ineligible for the playoff if more than three guys from the same team get ejected from a game, also remember the new 34% overall record win % rule, only affecting split conferences, but you cannot get an auto wild card berth if your overall record is below .340 win %
 
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Big South: Strange situation as described by Sasha98 i believe it was a couple of weeks ago on a different thread, and I could be wrong, but I think it has taken an even crazier turn: While Huss is in a position to lose the rest of their games and still be considered the winner of the 2A division, they will only have a 30% winning percentage in their overall record, unless they beat either Forestview or Ashbrook, if Huss wins one of those, then they will be in the tier of 1 seeds, but the way I read the NCHSAA handbook for this year's football playoff qualifiers, it appears that if Huss finishes 3-8, they will not be taken as a 1 seed or even as a wild card, and will be left out of the playoffs, Cramer should get a wild card berth even if they don't win another game, it's not looking good for LKN Charter either, they would need to beat both Ashbrook and North Gaston to get in the playoff discussion, and by the way, IF that happened, they would be a 1 seed, not a wild card, unless Cramer also rose up at the end with a big upset win or two.

tarheelg,
Since I have seen bracket projections that include Huss as the #1 with a 3-8 record because they believe the 34% only applies to the 2nd automatic bid, I did a couple of searches and and found documentation that confirms that the 34% only applies to the 2nd auto bid slot.

LKN Charter is only playing 10 games this year and is currently 3-5; 1-4. Two wins would certainly put them in the #1 slot but is unlikely the way Ashbrook has been playing. However, a three way tie, while still remote, remains within the realm of possibilities. With two games remaining, one win would give the Knights a 4-6; 2-5 record, and a winning 40%. If Cramer and Huss both lose their remaining games, all three 2A teams would be 2-5 in conference and would probably flip for it.
 
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Mountain Valley 1A/2A
1. East Wilkes (1AA)
2. Ashe County (2AA), Wilkes Central (2A), Starmount (1AA)
Ashe beat Wilkes Central; lost Starmount
Wilkes Central lost Ashe, beat Starmount
Starmount beat Ashe, lost Wilkes Central
 
Mountain Valley 1A/2A
1. East Wilkes (1AA)
2. Ashe County (2AA), Wilkes Central (2A), Starmount (1AA)
Ashe beat Wilkes Central; lost Starmount
Wilkes Central lost Ashe, beat Starmount
Starmount beat Ashe, lost Wilkes Central

Sounds like there is fun all around. :(
 
PAC 6:
Mid State: Another league that I cannot figure out, Reidsville is still in the best position, but they have had some awfully close games to be the heavy favorite, intriguing games the last 2 weeks between Reidsville/Bartlett Yancey, Graham/Cummings, Graham/Bartlett Yancey, and Cummings/Jordan-Matthews, anything can happen, and any of these teams can still get the 1,2, or 3, but with the overall records looking like they do, the only lock right now is Reidsville, with BY also in a good spot, JM, Graham, and Cummings better win their last two if they want to make the playoffs

Reidsville beat Bartlett Yancey soundly last night, Cummings upended Graham 17-14 in an Alamance County thriller and Jordan-Matthews cruised by Carrboro 44-28 after leading 44-7 at half.

Mid-State standings are as follows:
Reidsville 4-0 (at Carrboro)
Cummings 2-2 (at Jordan-Matthews)
Graham 2-2 (Bartlett Yancey)
Jordan-Matthews 2-2 (Cummings)
Bartlett Yancey 2-2 (at Graham)
Carrboro 0-4 (Reidsville)

The winners of the JM-Cummings and Graham-BY games will be playoff bound.
 
Yes absolutely the winners of those two will be in as seeds, TBD on who is 2/3, based on which ones win, but I like BY's chances to get a wild card even if they lose, since they would still be 5-5, 2-3
 
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