2A/2AA Bracketology

[tarheelg]

And believe me, I feel your pain, those from Hibriten dreading the thought of playing one the top two in 2nd Rd....or whoever loses that big game facing a trip to Hibriten in 2nd Rd....or the big two teams if they wind up 1 and 8 or 1 and 9 and playing each other again in the 2nd Rd...I grew up in Gates Co. and it seemed like the Barons drew the short straw every chance they had in playoff seedings...I've followed South Granville for 13 years now and same old thing....always the odd one out on 3 way ties, always getting conference rematches or a matchup with a powerhouse that almost makes you laugh in the early rounds of the state playoffs, doesn't matter what sport ....I think it was the poster beamer that said just line up and play whoever you have to play against

 

[tarheelg]

Who would want to play a shelby or south point in the second round lol.

Who would want to play them in any round??

 

[ohio tarheels]

Who would want to play a shelby or south point in the second round lol.

2nd round or 3rd round, is that really a big difference in all reality?? If all these teams end up in the same bracket you’re going to have to face a few of them at some point to make it to the Ultimate destination!!!!

 

[tarheelg]

2nd round or 3rd round, is that really a big difference in all reality?? If all these teams end up in the same bracket you’re going to have to face a few of them at some point to make it to the Ultimate destination!!!!

A wise man once said, "You've got to beat them all anyhow"....but I suppose I'd rather try to beat the one who beats them than to beat them

 

[W.I.R.]

There has to be some reward for winning your conference..so pretty simple winner tom has home field and loser gets one game at home....but no matter if your one of the other 14 teams in 2aa west your going thru Shelby and or South point..this year next year and prob for years ..should be a great HS game tom night..but as far as brackets go. Trust me our wonderful NCHSAA can screw up free ice cream..expect the unexpected..

 

[W.I.R.]

So tarheelg if it's in my teams best interest to have N SURRY IN 2AA and even MT PLEASANT BACK TO 2AA WEST..WHO NEEDS TO WIN TOM??

 

[tarheelg]

So tarheelg if it's in my teams best interest to have N SURRY IN 2AA and even MT PLEASANT BACK TO 2AA WEST..WHO NEEDS TO WIN TOM??

That all depends....because this whole thing is like one of Newton's laws of motion in that every action creates and equal and opposite reaction...so something happens that looks advantageous turns out to be not so much....("YES, this team went to the West....oh wait, now we're looking at hosting the defending regional champs in 2nd Rd")...then another crazy upset or two happen and you're right back where you started....on the surface I would say you want West Iredell to miss the playoffs, and them be replaced in the playoffs by a big school in the East (maybe North Lenoir if they beat Kinston? maybe Currituck if they beat First Flight AND Bertie beats Hertford?) So many puzzle pieces that will have to fall into place....There are always some surprises in Week 12 we did not see coming that throw things off....I'll be doing stats from South Granville/JF Webb game before scouring for scores and updating bracketology, so just watch the scores roll in on various sites and either be bored by the expected or wowed by the surprises...keep in mind that step 1 of updating is figuring out which 64 teams make the playoffs, which we can't do as accurately without the updated maxpreps rankings, so it's really hard to say exactly which games matter the most to you

 

[tarheelg]

Bubble Teams that need good things to happen tonight if they want to stay in the playoff picture with spread based on maxpreps ranking:

#58-Andrews: hosting Wheatmore, Andrews is a 6 point underdog, win makes Andrews 2nd in conference, loss means their only hope is to be a wild card, if they lose by 1 TD or less they'll probably still be a wild card, lose by 3 TDs or more and their season will probably be over, by the way, they have been listed in 2AA in all projections, but they're only 2 above the cut line right, could be pushed to small 2A depending on what happens with other bubble teams

#59-Goldsboro: plays @ Midway, Goldsboro is a 17 point favorite, win by 2 TD or more and they'll be safely in the playoffs we would presume, lose the game and they could easily drop out of wild card contention when new rankings get published, if they get bumped from the field of 64, that would presumably open up a spot in 2A East to either prevent Clinton from going West or let one of those 3 Rivers Conf teams in the East

#60-Ashe: plays @ Starmount: Ashe is a 5 point underdog, win and they should have no trouble staying in the playoffs, lose by a TD or less and they still probably stay in the wild card running, lose by 2 TD or more and things won't be looking so good, could vacate a spot in 2AA West and cause that 2A/2AA and East/West cutline to move

#61-West Iredell: plays @ Foard: West Iredell is a 10 point underdog, win would certainly lock them in the playoffs, loss by 2 TD or less and they still may be good to go, lose by more than 2 TD and that might have just opened up a spot for another bubble team currently outside the field of 64

#62-Heide Trask: plays @ SW Onslow: Trask is a 19 point underdog, in a game where a win means they would be conference co-champions, or a blowout loss by 4 TD or more means they probably miss the playoffs, like Goldsboro above, if they get bumped from the field of 64, that would presumably open up a spot in 2A East to either prevent Clinton from going West or let one of those 3 Rivers Conf teams in the East

#63-James Kenan: LAST WILD CARD IN AFTER WEEKS 10 & 11: hosting Wallace-Rose Hill, JK is a 41 point underdog, even in a loss, JK could help its playoff chances by keeping close for 4 quarters; if the spread comes close to holding true and this game winds up with a running clock, then the garbage time won't really garbage time...if WRH calls off the Dogs and JK can add a score or two late to make the margin of victory closer; if WRH does not call off the Dogs (or if their 2nd & 3rd string Dogs keep scoring), and 42 pt margin turns into 52 or 62, then presumably another spot in small 2A East might have just opened up (see Goldsboro and Trask above), which could insure Clinton stays East and/or that some of 3 Rivers Conf teams could go East (East Bladen would go East before Whiteville, would would go East before South Columbus)

-----Teams that would not have been projected in last week but still have a playoff pulse------------

#64-West Lincoln: hosting Lake Norman Charter, West Lincoln is a 14 point favorite, the Rebels will help their playoff chances by dominating and winning by 4 or 5 TDs or more, strange thing about WL is they are very close to the 2A/2AA cut line, after last week, they would have been small 2A, but they were only three below the cut line, SW Edgecombe & Hertford Co. would also have to go 2AA before West Lincoln goes up

#65-North Lenoir: playing at Kinston, 13 point underdog, North Lenoir pulled off a big upset beating Ayden-Grifton to get on the bubble when not long along ago it appeared they were totally out of contention, if lightning can strike twice and they can shock Kinston, I think they would leap frog some of these other teams ranked in the 60s, if they lose by a TD or less, they still have a great chance to land in the field of 64, if in they would most definitely be 2AA East, and could push teams near the cut line to the West, such as Mount Pleasant, or Forest Hills, if MP gets pushed West by other moving and shaking, West Stokes would be next to go after Forest Hills by the way

#66-Washington: playing at West Craven, 18 point underdog, West Craven has clinched 1st place in the conference, if they play sluggish and sloppy and let Washington hang around, then the Pam Pack could jump into the playoffs, even with a loss, if they can stay within 1 or 2 scores at the final margin of victory, if the Pam Pack sneak in, they would definitely be 2AA East

#67-Warren Co.-Idle: The Eagles have already played 11 and have a bye week to get healthy, hope they haven't taken up equipment from the players though, because if every single one of these bubble teams lose their last game, these Eagles could fly right into the playoffs...unlikely but possible they could wind up in the West, we know for sure they would be small 2A, as they had the third lowest ADM

#68-North Lincoln: play at Bandys, North Lincoln is a 3 point underdog, being this far below the bubble cut line, simply winning might not be enough to give them the boost to 63 in rankings, might even need 62 (see below), NL may need to go dominate and win by 2 or 3 scores to solidify its playoff chances

#69-Southern Vance: hosting Northern Vance, is a 14 point favorite, SV needs a huge win by 4 or 5 scores, and I've seen both of these teams in person, and I wouldn't be surprised if SV does win by 5 scores or more, if they can sneak into the playoffs, they would definitely be small 2A, and would be right at the East/West cutline
---------
Teams WELL outside the Top 64 but still have a chance at making the playoffs:

#77-Currituck Co.-The Knights can get the 2nd place auto bid from their conference if two things happen, they must win at First Flight AND have Bertie win at Hertford....if in, Currituck would definitely be 2AA East

-And then there's 2nd auto bid in the Mid-State conference

#88-Graham, plays at Reidsville, if Graham wins, they'll actually win the conference and Reidsville drop to the tier of 2s, don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen, but just imagine...even in a loss, Graham has a 50/50 chance of making playoffs, see below

#106-Carrboro, hosts Cummings: A Carrboro win with a Graham loss gives Carrboro an auto bid and seeded in tier of 2s, a Carrboro loss means Graham gets the other spot from their conference

 

[ebhsfan]

Great information. Good job!!!!

 

[DbuckOsweepG]

Where did you go to find out who was favored and what the spread for the games are?

 

[Fantastic Four]

Simmons ratings or calpreps does point spreads.

 

[tarheelg]

The point spreads I used were from the maxpreps ratings....much like Simmons....If Team A is a 10.5 and Team B is a -9.5, then I believe that means Team A is a 19 point favorite...not sure if they figure anything about being home or away...I know that Simmons gives a 2 point bonus to the home team

 

[strikerHHS]

I don't disagree with you that these two, on paper anyway, are the two best teams, but I cannot agree that "the system is broken" when whoever finishes second in the conference won't get seeded ahead of others who won their conference....It seems that people have forgotten that they've been seeding conference champions ahead of 2nd place teams for about 20 years...would have happened last year, the year before, right on back to whichever year in the mid-1990s they got away from the predetermined conference brackets (Conf A #1 vs. Conf C #4, Conf B #2 vs. Conf D #3, etc.) and went to seeding 1-16; only it may not have seemed as magnified with those maxpreps rankings coming out every week with those two great teams trading places at 1 & 2 for 10 weeks, maxpreps has been doing rankings for some time, but we only started to notice a little last year because it was used to break ties for teams in same tier with identical records, this year we've known all year it was the end-all be-all for seeding the playoffs, except for the results on the field in conference play putting all conference champs at the top....

I've always said that seed is not a ranking from best teams to worst, but just a number to set up the bracket, If you watch any NCAA basketball in March, you know that number means nothing once the game starts if you get two evenly matched teams that play hard and don't want their season to end; that number just gives people something to talk about...(Clueless fan (of college basketball or high school football): OOOOOH, DID YOU SEE THAT 13 BEAT THE BRAKES OFF THAT 4 SEED?! Voice of Reason: Well, that 13 seed played half of their season with their 2 best players hurt and just got them back a month ago; that 4's been overrated and hadn't played anybody all year; really not surprised; shouldn't even be considered an upset)

While I do hope/expect the powers that be will make a couple of tweaks to the way teams qualify for the playoffs or get seeded for next year, I cannot imagine them going strictly to maxpreps rankings for seeding the entire bracket and not taking conference finish into consideration

"I've always said that seed is not a ranking from best teams to worst, but just a number to set up the bracket"

With all due respect, that's NOT the intended idea. The idea is to have the best vs the best later in the competition. They absolutely need to be ranked 1 to 16. Proper seeding prevents a lopsided bracket.

You know what's exciting? South Point vs Shelby for the Western Regional title and a birth in the State Championship game.

You know what's not exciting? South Point vs Shelby in the second round - winner advances to blow out a bunch of other scrubs in a cakewalk to the State Championship game

**just using these teams as an example**

 

[tarheelg]

StrikerHHS, respect to you too; what you're about to read is a bunch of thinking out loud, but first i'm a little concerned that the HHS in your screen name might refer to Hibriten, and that you might have referred to your team among the "bunch of other scrubs", who is probably one team that may have a good chance against these two powerhouses, and who probably still would be standing in the 3rd Rd if Shelby & South Point wind up playing in the 2nd Rd...anyway, about the playoff bracket potential:

I realize this is a sort of semantics when talking about terms like rank vs. seed vs. rating, and what you describe works great for college basketball (and to a degree now in college football except it's 4 teams, not 64 or 68) when the rules in place allow a subjective committee to sit down in a room and in a sense rank teams to give them their seeds....and to that effect, your point that seeding is intended to be a ranking is correct...my point was that the NCHSAA seeding rules, as they exist right now anyway (and have been since seeding has been part of the equation) takes a different approach...in college basketball, winning your conference tournament (except for the Ivy League) locks you into the tournament, but plays no role at all in seeding, that's roughly half of the field, then everybody else is a wild card, and who gets in, and where they get seeded is based on merit, including record, strength of schedule, power ratings, the eye test, etc. In high school, they have always put a premium on winning your conference, and that could change; I hope it doesn't though, it gives you something to play for even if you're those teams ranked in the 20s or 30s in the rankings at the top of your league, knowing if you win such and such game and clinch your conference, you're going to be at home for the playoffs...one game anyway, most of the time (I'm waiting for one year for a bracket to be overwhelmed with 1 seeds and a conference champion wind up as a 9 and be on the road, it could happen)....if tonight Patton beats Hibriten or Ledford beats North Davidson tonight, they earned that higher seed by winning their conference....I know that on paper, teams like Wilkes Central and North Surry wouldn't have a chance against South Point and Shelby, but I would say that's not the point (I take it you say that is the point)...It has always appeared that unlike the NCAA, that the NCHSAA has always treated every conference equally (sometimes too much so...I really don't like a 1 or even 3 win team that won its division of a split conference getting seeded with the tier of 1s, but that's another story, except that I hope they will make some kind of adjustment to their rules on that next year), but I'm saying the folks who will put the bracket together to be released on Saturday aren't going in there to evaluate how good the teams are when they seed them....that's what conference results first, and maxpreps rankings second have already done...they're going in to make sure the correct procedure gets followed based on the rules in effect....I take it you don't like the rules in effect; that's understandable, and I know what you mean about a 2nd Rd matchup of teams good enough to win states just not having the same luster as a regional finals matchup would, but it's happened before countless times to lots of other teams in many different sports and it will probably keep on happening

This is the first year that the high school playoffs (in every sport) have gone with some kind of subjective ranking to impact seeding, instead of simply a team's record...my concern/question is: How would you suggest changing it? They cannot make up the rules as they go along and in the middle of the seeding process, realize oh look the two highest ranked teams might play in the second round; let's change the criteria...I could ask how you would change it without devaluing winning your conference...seems like the only way would be go straight up maxpreps ranking to fill out the whole bracket...where conference finish means nothing, espeically finishing 2nd, which would be good for this year's Mid-State 2A to lose their second auto bid when whoever gets it will be ranked in the 90s or 100s out of 113 in 2A that play football...I like it that every straight 2A league doesn't get 3 autobids like in the old days, (only the Ce. Car. which has about 15 teams in it)...I like it that they've gotten rid of a pod system having anything to do with playoff seeding, like it was 7 or 8 years ago for football only, or last year in every sport....I like it that strength of schedule now counts for something, but at the same time feel bad for the team whose SOS is very low at no fault of their own because they couldn't schedule Mallard Creek or Scotland or Shelby or South Point, while the other teams in the conference are simply not very good AND played a soft non-conference schedule, my bottom line is I do not think the state should redo their seeding criteria to let the maxpreps rankings totally supersede putting a premium on winning your conference

By the way, I still would expect a gimhugeous enorgantic crowd at the Shelby/South Point game in any round of the playoffs, wonder if anybody will be there tonight since it's just a regular season game?

 

[strikerHHS]

StrikerHHS, respect to you too; what you're about to read is a bunch of thinking out loud, but first i'm a little concerned that the HHS in your screen name might refer to Hibriten, and that you might have referred to your team among the "bunch of other scrubs", who is probably one team that may have a good chance against these two powerhouses, and who probably still would be standing in the 3rd Rd if Shelby & South Point wind up playing in the 2nd Rd...anyway, about the playoff bracket potential:

I realize this is a sort of semantics when talking about terms like rank vs. seed vs. rating, and what you describe works great for college basketball (and to a degree now in college football except it's 4 teams, not 64 or 68) when the rules in place allow a subjective committee to sit down in a room and in a sense rank teams to give them their seeds....and to that effect, your point that seeding is intended to be a ranking is correct...my point was that the NCHSAA seeding rules, as they exist right now anyway (and have been since seeding has been part of the equation) takes a different approach...in college basketball, winning your conference tournament (except for the Ivy League) locks you into the tournament, but plays no role at all in seeding, that's roughly half of the field, then everybody else is a wild card, and who gets in, and where they get seeded is based on merit, including record, strength of schedule, power ratings, the eye test, etc. In high school, they have always put a premium on winning your conference, and that could change; I hope it doesn't though, it gives you something to play for even if you're those teams ranked in the 20s or 30s in the rankings at the top of your league, knowing if you win such and such game and clinch your conference, you're going to be at home for the playoffs...one game anyway, most of the time (I'm waiting for one year for a bracket to be overwhelmed with 1 seeds and a conference champion wind up as a 9 and be on the road, it could happen)....if tonight Patton beats Hibriten or Ledford beats North Davidson tonight, they earned that higher seed by winning their conference....I know that on paper, teams like Wilkes Central and North Surry wouldn't have a chance against South Point and Shelby, but I would say that's not the point (I take it you say that is the point)...It has always appeared that unlike the NCAA, that the NCHSAA has always treated every conference equally (sometimes too much so...I really don't like a 1 or even 3 win team that won its division of a split conference getting seeded with the tier of 1s, but that's another story, except that I hope they will make some kind of adjustment to their rules on that next year), but I'm saying the folks who will put the bracket together to be released on Saturday aren't going in there to evaluate how good the teams are when they seed them....that's what conference results first, and maxpreps rankings second have already done...they're going in to make sure the correct procedure gets followed based on the rules in effect....I take it you don't like the rules in effect; that's understandable, and I know what you mean about a 2nd Rd matchup of teams good enough to win states just not having the same luster as a regional finals matchup would, but it's happened before countless times to lots of other teams in many different sports and it will probably keep on happening

This is the first year that the high school playoffs (in every sport) have gone with some kind of subjective ranking to impact seeding, instead of simply a team's record...my concern/question is: How would you suggest changing it? They cannot make up the rules as they go along and in the middle of the seeding process, realize oh look the two highest ranked teams might play in the second round; let's change the criteria...I could ask how you would change it without devaluing winning your conference...seems like the only way would be go straight up maxpreps ranking to fill out the whole bracket...where conference finish means nothing, espeically finishing 2nd, which would be good for this year's Mid-State 2A to lose their second auto bid when whoever gets it will be ranked in the 90s or 100s out of 113 in 2A that play football...I like it that every straight 2A league doesn't get 3 autobids like in the old days, (only the Ce. Car. which has about 15 teams in it)...I like it that they've gotten rid of a pod system having anything to do with playoff seeding, like it was 7 or 8 years ago for football only, or last year in every sport....I like it that strength of schedule now counts for something, but at the same time feel bad for the team whose SOS is very low at no fault of their own because they couldn't schedule Mallard Creek or Scotland or Shelby or South Point, while the other teams in the conference are simply not very good AND played a soft non-conference schedule, my bottom line is I do not think the state should redo their seeding criteria to let the maxpreps rankings totally supersede putting a premium on winning your conference

By the way, I still would expect a gimhugeous enorgantic crowd at the Shelby/South Point game in any round of the playoffs, wonder if anybody will be there tonight since it's just a regular season game?

"I like it that strength of schedule now counts for something, but at the same time feel bad for the team whose SOS is very low at no fault of their own because they couldn't schedule Mallard Creek or Scotland or Shelby or South Point, while the other teams in the conference are simply not very good AND played a soft non-conference schedule, my bottom line is I do not think the state should redo their seeding criteria to let the maxpreps rankings totally supersede putting a premium on winning your conference"

I feel you, tarheelg. And yes, the HHS is 100% Hirbriten, though that shouldn't matter. The ** was be trying to clarify it was just an example.

I empathize with your position. I just don't agree with it - and that's ok.

My premium is not on winning the conference. You feel bad someone's SOS might be low "due to no fault of their own". I feel the same way about conference champions. Not all conference champions are created equal. Shelby is being punished because of the conference they got assigned to - NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN.

My bottom line - GET THE BRACKET RIGHT. Regardless of who is a conference champ and who is an at-large qualifier, it should always be on getting it right -- and until the state can do that themselves, they should defer to someone who can. If your criteria creates a lopsided bracket, the system is broke.

Again, it's 2017 -- just because we've always done something, doesn't mean we should always continue to do it...

It's been a good back-and-forth. Ready to enjoy some playoff football now.

 

[tarheelg]

Yes, I can concur that it's not necessarily always a good reason to keep doing something simply because it's always been done that way; but I really hope they do not go the way of college and go to a committee to actually seed based purely on subjective opinions, and for college, it is a step in the right direction, just wonder how long before their playoff soon has 8 teams, then 16, maybe 24 with the top few bye weeks like they have in FCS, D2, D3...I hope you never think you saw me write that any system we have tried for high school is perfect, but today, I did shake my head at so many first round conference rematches across all 8 brackets....I remembered that in the early years of seeding; when they first eliminated the predetermined brackets by conference finishing position (also back when only 32 teams made the playoffs in each class, not subdividing to allow 64), they would tweak brackets to prevent 1st Rd conference rematches when possible. They might invert the 14/15 or 11/12 to avoid a 1st Rd conference rematch if say the one who should have been 11 was going to have a conference opponent in 6....or also, in that type of situation, if there were two teams drawing for 5 and 6, and either one had a conference opponent in 11 or 12, they wouldn't even do the draw, just go ahead and split up the conference teams for the 1st Rd matchups...and of course it was A LOT less likely in those days anyway when only half as many teams made the playoffs....I didn't mind the way did it last year, in that conference champions went first, then everybody else was a wild card...what I did not like last year (in every sport) were the pods, because whoever's bright idea it was (perhaps in an attempt to avoid 1st Rd conference rematches) did not take into consideration that it's possible (very possible more often than you would think) that all of the teams in the same conference to not be in the same pod (Mideast/East & Midwest/West)...I wouldn't mind at all if they would use last year's system of letting the 64 qualify based on wins/losses, with final tiebreaker for last wild cards in being overall record, with conference record as tiebreaker (like it has had been for a long time), and then seed them by maxpreps ranking, and then seed all others by maxpreps ranking....Just East/West, no splitting the region into 2 pods to set up the bracket, and no 2s or 3s, just conference champs by maxpreps rank, then everybody else by maxpreps ranking....it might not help Shelby this year, but it would make sure an 8-3 Heide Trask team gets in, who couldn't help how weak their conference was toward the bottom...they still might seeded toward the bottom; somebody has to, but if they're really good enough, they can prove it on the field and win in the playoffs against better teams, ready for playoff games myself, ready to pick brackets...I will be posting links for all 8 brackets on this and 2 other message boards and on twitter and facebook, hope anybody reading this will fill out brackets and play, no entry fee and no prizes other than the pride and satisfaction of winning unless anybody out there wants to be a sponsor