Will 5 wins be enough to guarantee a 3A playoff spot?

[sasha_nc]

After last night's games (10/23), the haves got more and the have nots remained have nots. I think there are a number of teams in the middle who may not make the 64-team playoffs. Currently, there are 40 teams with 6 or more wins who are pretty much guaranteed a playoff berth. After that there are 14 teams with 5 wins and 12 teams with 4 wins for a total of 26 teams which means at least 4 and possibly more could miss a bid. Below I have broken out those last 26 teams, their records, and upcoming opponents.

Team Record 10/30 11/6

Ashbrook 5-4; 3-2 Lake Norman Charter / Hunter Huss

Chapel Hill 5-5; 2-3 BYE / Northwood

Hibriten 5-4; 2-3 Patton / Hickory

West Brunswick 5-5; 2-3 Laney / BYE -

East Gaston 5-4; 3-2 Stuart Cramer / Forestview

Northwood 5-4; 3-1 Northern Vance / Chapel Hill

Topsail 5-4; 2-2 New Hanover / Hoggard

North Henderson 5-4; 2-3 Brevard / Smoky Mountain

Swansboro 5-4; 2-2 Havelock / West Carteret

Carson (Jesse) 5-4; 3-4 Hickory Ridge / Cox Mill

Charles B Aycock* 4-5; 2-2 Rose, JH / Eastern Wayne
* Aycock is the #1 3A team in a split conference; however, if they lose both games, they would be the #2

Fike 5-4; 1-2 Northern Nash / Hunt, JB

Saint Stephens 5-4; 2-3 Freedom / Fred T. Foard

Walter M. Williams 5-5; 3-4 Morehead, John T / BYE

Central Cabarrus 4-4; 3-4 East Rowan / Northwest Cabarrus

Eastern Guilford 4-5; 2-4 Eastern Alamance Rockingham County

Forestview 4-5; 3-2 Hunter Huss /East Gaston

North Buncombe 4-5; 3-1 Asheville / Reynolds, AC

Northern Vance 4-5; 1-3 Northwood / Cedar Ridge

Rockingham Co 4-6; 3-4 BYE / Eastern Guilford

Southern Lee 4-5; 1-3 Union Pines / Lee County

Union Pines 4-5; 0-4 Southern Lee / Westover

Westover 4-5; 2-2 Lee County / Union Pines

Cuthbertson 4-5; 1-2 Sun Valley / Piedmont

Sun Valley 4-5; 1-2 Cuthbertson / Anson County

Cedar Ridge 4-5; 2-2 Southern Durham / Northern Vance

Eastern Wayne* 2-6; 0-4 Southern Wayne / Aycock, CB
* Eastern Wayne is the #2 3A team in a split conference but won't make the playoffs unless they win both games. If they do that, they will actually become the #1 3A team and could knock out a 5-5 team.

 

[themerlin]

Topsail should be the first place 3A school in the league with West Brunswick since they beat them head to head, right?

 

[sasha_nc]

Topsail should be the first place 3A school in the league with West Brunswick since they beat them head to head, right?

Thanks for that info. I got a bit ahead of myself when posting that. If both finish 5-6 overall and 2-4 in their conference as I think they will, then yes, Topsail would get the #1 and W Brunswick would get the #2.

 

[egfan]

I would be more comfortable with 6 wins, 5 wins might not get in for some teams.

 

[sasha_nc]

I would be more comfortable with 6 wins, 5 wins might not get in for some teams.

For Forestview to get a sixth win, they have to go through your Warriors. If they lose the Huss game, they will be desperate to win against East Gaston.

 

[sasha_nc]

After last week's games, there are now 45 teams with 6 or more wins.

There are 4 additional teams from split conferences that will also get bids:

Conference Team Record Next Opponent​

• 4A/3A Mideastern West Brunswick 5-6; 2-4 BYE
• 4A/3A Mideastern Topsail 5-5; 2-3 Hoggard
• 4A/3A Northwestern Patton 4-6; 4-2 Freedom (#2 seed in their division)
• 4A/3A Eastern Carolina Aycock 4-6; 2-3 Eastern Wayne (a win = #1 in division; a loss = #2 in their division)

That leaves 16 slots to be filled from the following:

Conference Team Record Next Opponent​

• 3A/2A Big South Forestview 5-5; 4-2 East Gaston
• 3A/2A Big South Ashbrook 5-5; 3-3 Hunter Huss
• South Piedmont Central Cabarrus 5-4; 4-4 Northwest Cabarrus
• 4A/3A Northwestern St Stephens 5-5; 2-4 Fred T. Foard
• 4A/3A Northwestern Hibriten 5-5; 2-4 Hickory
• Coastal Swansboro 5-5; 2-3 West Carteret
• Southern Carolina Cuthbertson 5-5; 2-2 Piedmont
• Mid State Williams, Walter M. 5-6; 3-5 BYE
• Two Rivers Triton 3-7; 2-2 Western Harnett (will finish 3rd in conference - may need win to get them above 34%)
• 4A/3A Eastern Carolina Eastern Wayne 3-6; 1-4 Aycock, CB (a win = #1 seed in division; loss = end of season)
• Mid Piedmont Southwestern Randolph 4-6; 2-3 Western Guilford
• Southern Carolina Sun Valley 4-6; 1-3 Anson County
• Big Eight Chapel Hill 5-5; 2-3 Northwood
• Mid State Rockingham County 4-6; 3-4 Eastern Guilford*
• Mid State Eastern Guilford 4-6; 2-5 Rockingham County*
• Big Eight Cedar Ridge 4-6; 2-3 Northern Vance
• Cape Fear Valley Westover 4-6; 2-3 Union Pines*
• Cape Fear Valley Union Pines 5-5; 1-4 Westover*
• MAC North Buncombe 4-6; 3-2 25% Reynolds, AC (could make it if Eastern Wayne loses)

*Winners of Rockingham Co/Eastern Guilford and Westover/Union Pines will go to the playoffs.