2014 2015 Girls predictions?

[bulldog nation2014]

Ok I apologize its so early, but I am interested to know your thoughts of the new playoff format without the pod systems and predictions for the upcoming basketball predictions for Girls. Who your top 10 or top 20 teams in the state 1A. Who are the boundary schools who can give the non boundary schools a challenge and possibly beat them in the state playoffs?

This post was edited on 6/4 2:38 PM by bulldog nation2014

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Here is my top ten for 2014-2015

Bishop McGuinness
Riverside-Martin
WSP
Atkins
Granville Central
Cherokee
Albemarle
West Montgomery
Gates County
River Mill

In regards to the Pod system, I wish it was still around as it saved on possible travel time, however the midwest pod was brutal. Something tells me a good number of the midwest will be still be standing as each round passes.

 

[3daughters]

Bulldog, haven't thought about a top 10 yet but Bishop lost 4 seniors all who played varsity for all for years. They will still have a very good starting five but may not be as deep as they have in the past. In the last couple of years they on several occasion had to finish jv games with 4 players since often only 5-6 were on the jv team. The numbers based on their summer program seem to be a lot better for incoming 9th graders from the Catholic middle schools.

Atkins and WS Prep should be favored in the NW 1A over Bishop but I have heard some talk that there maybe some player movement with those two teams (we are talking about Forsyth County). Mt. Airy lost a ton of talent with their seniors graduating but they are very very well coached so will always be in the mix.

Riverside-Martin will have their phenominal freshman coming back but they lost all of their other starters and didn't appear to have a lot on the bench. Same with Cherokee with them losing Avery Mintz and Kendall Toinetta. Also think Hayesville is losing some very good players.

All in all I think next year's girls will be much wider open than in past years.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Until I see Bishop weaken, they have won 9 state championships in a row. They are 1 until somebody knocks them off in the state tournament.

I believe Mount Airy will be back, maybe down alittle this year with what they lost.

Atkins I heard has a tremendous team coming up. Same with Prep.

Riverside will probably be competitive but you never know with player movement what can happen.

Albemarle returned 11 players off of their 23-4 team plus will have a really good guard who only played 6 games last year at a 100%. The Senior class for Albemarle is strong....

West Montgomery they are returning all players except one. All major players are returning. They had a terrible game against Atkins. You look back through that teams history with this Roster they have been pretty competitive vs Northwest teams. I wouldn't sleep on them.

 

[Dosso]

I believe Atkins two best players are transferring and heard it is a done deal, at least for their best player. Heard possibly best player on WS Prep might be leaving but not definite at all. WS Prep will still be very good. Atkins could have been the best 1A team around but they won't be now.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

WOW, Why are they leaving and where are they going?

 

[Big43]

I heard the Atkins girls are going to Reynolds I have not heard about the prep player.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Whats the thoughts on the pod system not being there any longer? Seems everybody in the midwest division will be happy, unless they have to travel 3 hours lol.

 

[NCball450]

Word is that the 2 best players for Atkins have already transferred to Reynolds. I have not heard about anyone from WS Prep transferring.

Mount Airy girls lost a lot of talent, the entire starting 5, from last season. They will be good, but they will not be anywhere near the level they were this past season.

Bishop lost 4 starters, but still had plenty of talent on the bench. I also hear they have some very good rising freshman coming.

Albemarle might return a lot, but they lose the main piece. I will have a hard time believing they will be anywhere near as good without the Branch kid. She was the only thing that kept Albemarle even close in the Mount Airy game, without her it would have been a 30+ loss.

West Montgomery should be pretty good this season.

With the Atkins kids transferring, and if the transfer happens at WS Prep - then I think Bishop will be the team to beat still.

 

[ObserveAndReport]

Originally posted by 3daughters:


Riverside-Martin will have their phenominal freshman coming back but they lost all of their other starters and didn't appear to have a lot on the bench. Same with Cherokee with them losing Avery Mintz and Kendall Toinetta. Also think Hayesville is losing some very good players.

The mountain teams aren't losing as much as you think.

Mintz graduates from Cherokee, but Kendall Toineeta was a junior this year, and any team with a PG that good will be dangerous.

Hayesville loses a 20 ppg scorer who will be playing D2 ball next year, which is a big loss for a 1A school. They also lost some good role players from a pretty big senior class. But they also return two rising seniors who have committed to D1 schools (Mercer and Liberty), and should be very good again.

Two other teams from the far west that I think will be very good are Robbinsville and Hiwassee Dam. Hiwassee Dam went 22-6 without a single senior on their roster last year. Robbinsville had a roster that was close to three-quarters 9th and 10th graders, and as you'd expect with a young team, they took some losses early. But they became very dangerous as the season wore on (beat an Asheville Erwin team that went to the 3A third round, beat Hayesville, played Cherokee to 3) and ended up winning around 20 games. With as young as they were last year, they should be a tough out next year, too.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

"Albemarle might return a lot, but they lose the main
piece. I will have a hard time believing they will be anywhere near as
good without the Branch kid. She was the only thing that kept Albemarle
even close in the Mount Airy game, without her it would have been a 30+
loss."

@NC Ball Were you at the game? Albemarle led most of the 2nd quarter and all of the 3rd quarter up to the point where there point guard picked up her 4th foul with 3 mins to go in the 3rd quarter. When she went out MA went on a 19-2 run. Albemarle in the 4th quarter were down 17 in the 4th went on another run and pulled it back to 8. You made it seem like Albemarle was dominated that game. Yes Akela had a great game but thats not all they had. MA could not stop her she had 28 at half and finished with 44 on the game at 19-25 from the field they kept going to her as they should have. MA made 12 3's that game from 50% from the field. Actually I heard that was THE BEST game all year that MA had played. By the way Albemarle also shot 63% from inside the 3 pt line. MA had a 36 point advantage from the 3. Albemarles top 2 3pt shooters had an off night and they shot 0-8.

Albemarle has everybody coming back including the PG Currie SG Mclendon (who will break 1000 pts this year as a junior) G Davis-Hill (who was out for a solid year due to 2 concussions the prior year and only played in 6 games last year and shot 12-17 from 3 in those games) She will be in basketball shape and back to 100% had a great showing at the select 60 showcase. Yes they lost a key piece in Branch who will be playing at Wingate next year, but they also had Robinson from Anson come in due to her fathers job. So they return 11 plus her, they will be tough.

As I said earlier until Bishop gets beat in the state tournament they are THE team.

 

[Dave2kMA]

Bishop is going to be significantly weaker, at least on paper. Outside of 2011-2012, this will be the best chance anyone has had to beat them unless they get significant contributions from incoming freshman (not a given). They've only got 4 proven entities and then a lot of uncertainty behind them.

Atkins is indeed losing their two best, but will still be competitive. The rumors about the Prep player transferring to Northside Christian are also real, though not official. If she leaves, they'll be significantly weaker as well, barring transfers. Mount Airy will be rebuilding, but with some very strong younger players (successful JV & MS players). They're probably a year or two away, but they'll be competitive also.

Elsewhere, Hayesville will be good with Thompson back. Albemarle, despite the protests of their fan(s), will be nowhere near as good without Branch, but will still be heavy favorites in a very weak YVC. And, of course, River Mill will be good again if they stay healthy. In the East there's the usual slew of one horse teams with no depth that can be dangerous on the right day in a one-off situation in Raleigh (Riverside, Granville, etc).

To make a long story short, the 1A girls is going to be WIDE open in 14-15.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

1A will be very interesting this year. Whats the opinion on switching from the POD system to not having it? My top ten is below still.

1.) Bishop (like I said 9 state titles until somebody beats them in states they stay 1)
2.) WSP (tough squad this may change if their best player leaves however I am sure they will just reload)
3.) Albemarle (it took MT Airy their best game of the season and Albemarles PG getting in trouble to beat them. With 11 returning plus the addition of Robinson along with Coach Davis it will be interesting)
4.) Hayesville (Seems like they have a pretty good program and could make a run)
5.) River Mill
6.) West montgomery ( I still have alot of respect for their guards, who did not play well vs Atkins. There PG and SG who will be a sophomore this year can take them along way)
7.) South Davidson (this team could make noise this year. Last year they were very young but VERY talented with a year of experience and maturity they could make some noise. Plus I have alot of respect for their coach.
8.) Mount Airy (Although I don't think they will be as dangerous as last year, Coach Mayo has a great program, develops players and still could cause some headaches come playoff time.)
9.) Atkins ( They are losing their top two players, but like WSP i think they will reload, and still be very dangerous come playoff time.)
10.) cherokee (I think they will have a pretty good season. Seems like they have a great program and like Hayesville can be very dangerous.)

** I am not sure on East teams please any input on these teams would be appreciated.

 

[recycled2]

Here is my take on the pods, in basketball we need them. In theory a team lets say W-S Prep finishes let's say 9th (just for the sake of argument) they travel on Monday to Hiwassee Dam, Wednesday they go to Robbinsville and finish up on Friday at Hayesville. All are drives of 300+ miles, hard to travel like that and win, almost 1800-2000 miles in 5 days. The option is to spend an entire week in motels. Still tough not to mention the expense to the schools. Also if you stay think of the loss of class time. The state has not considered the welfare of the students.

 

[Dave2kMA]

Your citing an EXTREME hypothetical, but there's some truth to it. The other side of the coin, and I think I speak for everyone who's had to watch their team try and go through the mid-west gauntlet, is that the pods have a dramatic impact on the balance within the brackets.

To use this past year as an example, in no way shape or form should a top seeded team like Albemarle have had to play a team like Mount Airy in ROUND TWO. And further to that, West Montgomery, as the 3rd seed in the region got beat by 40 against a supposed 11 seed in Atkins in round two. Meanwhile, before the brackets even came out, you knew for a fact that Hayesville and Cherokee would be in Greensboro for the regionals out of the west because nobody had a realistic shot to beat either of them.

Hayesville and Cherokee were both solid teams, but would they have been lead pipe locks to make it to Greensboro if they had to go through Mount Airy, Atkins, Prep, Bishop or Albemarle along the way? No chance.

If you want to make the argument about classes and studies being effected, I think that's fair since, unlike football, you can be on the road as many as three times in a week. But the travel thing should not be an excuse for punishing quality teams.

 

[recycled2]

Originally posted by Dave2kMA:
Your citing an EXTREME hypothetical, but there's some truth to it. The other side of the coin, and I think I speak for everyone who's had to watch their team try and go through the mid-west gauntlet, is that the pods have a dramatic impact on the balance within the brackets.

To use this past year as an example, in no way shape or form should a top seeded team like Albemarle have had to play a team like Mount Airy in ROUND TWO. And further to that, West Montgomery, as the 3rd seed in the region got beat by 40 against a supposed 11 seed in Atkins in round two. Meanwhile, before the brackets even came out, you knew for a fact that Hayesville and Cherokee would be in Greensboro for the regionals out of the west because nobody had a realistic shot to beat either of them.

Hayesville and Cherokee were both solid teams, but would they have been lead pipe locks to make it to Greensboro if they had to go through Mount Airy, Atkins, Prep, Bishop or Albemarle along the way? No chance.

If you want to make the argument about classes and studies being effected, I think that's fair since, unlike football, you can be on the road as many as three times in a week. But the travel thing should not be an excuse for punishing quality teams.

Not so extreme, one time I remember a school that spent a week in WNC and lost the sectional final to Rosman. Look at this, your team plays at Hiwassee Dam ( a real possibility since they win their league 98% of the time) on Monday leaves their gym at 9:30 and travels 6 hours to get home, arriving at3:30 to 4 am and then turns around and plays Bishop or Prep the next night. Do you think the trip will impact the chances of your team? What if it snows and games are played on back to back nights? Talking about a home court advantage.

In the end the best team should win but try to get the athletes as even a playing field as possible. An athlete that stays in their bed and eats at home will fair better than those that don't.

As for your punishing quality teams you need to discuss this with Adam Silver and have the NBA do away with divisions. For that matter why not seed the entire state 1-64 and go play. Looking at girls basketball since the mid 80's then western teams are punished for playing the Bishops, Hayesvilles and Thomasvilles in the western regions.

This post was edited on 6/11 5:08 PM by recycled2

 

[NCball450]

I think all players and coaches would much rather travel out far west 3 times in 1 week, instead of having to go thru the brutal Midwest. Watching regionals the past couple of years, I think some of the teams from the West would have had a very hard time just getting thru the Midwest pod.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Great posts. I am shocked the pod system is gone but I am glad as well as the midwest was brutal. The travel is a huge issue but thats the only issue. I think the game on monday is ridiculous it should be moved to tuesday and go tuesday thursday and saturday,

I think seeding 1-64 and just playing is a bit off the wall but I am caught in I like teams being seeded 1-32 I think thats a great idea and your allowing for the bracket balance to happen. Here is what I think and Ohio does this. They play state playoff games at neutral courts thus eliminating the extreme travel. I think the NCHSAA has done a good thing here but they need to take it a step further and allow the 1st two rounds to be played at a neutral high school then move to a college arena. Thats neither here nor there maybe they will take it the extra step maybe not.

All in all I am in the middle here with this. The midwest pod was brutal and virtually a state championship amongst itself. But both great points here on travel and competitive balance. Hopefully the NCHSAA can progress this movement and allow these teams to play at neutral sites.

 

[Dave2kMA]

I like the idea of neutral courts, particularly in 1A, but only in extreme situations. For example, if two schools are located more than 2 hours apart, the NCHSAA should arrange a neutral court location somewhere in between to cut down on some of the travel. Anything less than that and the higher seed should host.

 

[recycled2]

Originally posted by Dave2kMA:
I like the idea of neutral courts, particularly in 1A, but only in extreme situations. For example, if two schools are located more than 2 hours apart, the NCHSAA should arrange a neutral court location somewhere in between to cut down on some of the travel. Anything less than that and the higher seed should host.

If you use the 2 hour rule then the SMC would have to play neutral court conference games! Yes, we have some long road trips for conference games. The end of the pod system may even give the SMC an advantage in they are used to 2-3 hour trips. Even with that I still like the pods. Keep the kids in class, make the field as even as possible or go to neutral sites.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

The midwest pod >>> West pod. I like the idea of a wide open 1-32 west and utilizing neutral sites. More changes necessary but getting rid of the pods was a good start.