It's only about a year away before the officials in charge of realignment will begin looking at the new set of conferences for the four year cycle to run from 2021-2025....With this year's ADM numbers, I started tinkering with some numbers and realize they have quite a dilemma, and must say that I quickly discovered exactly why they went with the 20/30/30/20 model for the 2017-2021 cycle. As you might guess, if you follow high school sports (or politics) in NC and read a lot of message board banter, the primary complicating issue is charter schools: For years and years, the 25% rule worked well to separate the four classes, but now with SO many schools with enrollments of 300 or less, many of whom do not have a football program, going 25% across the board would put 104-105 schools in each class, but in 1A, only 68 of the 104 current schools in the bottom 25% of all schools actually have a football program. As many more charter schools have applied to open over the next few years, the number of non-football 1A schools will most likely continue to increase.
What the NCHSAA did for the 2017 realignment, to offset this problem of a disproportionate number of 1A schools without football, was go to a 20%/30%/30%/20%, using only the football playing schools (about 380) from the total number (about 420), then when they set the ADM range for 1A/2A/3A/4A, then went back and plugged in the non-football schools in the appropriate class, so we wound up with something like 78 4A schools, 114 3A schools, 116 2A schools (DSA & NCSSM without football), and 111 1A schools (including about 75 with football plus about 36 without it).
Looking ahead to 2021, many are clamoring to return to the old 25/25/25/25, but here's the problem: If we go to a straight 25/25/25/25 and use the same process of taking out the non-football schools to set the range for each class, then add them in after the class range is set, then we wind up with something like: 95 schools in 4A, 96 schools in 3A, 97 schools in 2A (these all seem reasonable) BUT....132 in 1A, with potentially 4 or 5 new ones added every year or two as more charter schools open...and bear in mind, about 36 or more of them do not have football)....perhaps the board of directors or realignment committee or whoever decides such matters would be ok with this, as it would allow both 1A & 4A football playoffs to probably go back to allowing 64 teams to qualify instead of 48. I think the most troubling aspect of this plan (if football schools are taken out when setting the range) is not that there are 132 1A schools, but that the ranges would be as follows: 1A would be ADM up to ~725.....2A would be ADM ~734-1019.....3A would be ADM ~1023-1506.....and 4A would be ADM ~1507 and up
For what it's worth, if they use the same 20/30/30/20 process they used for the 2017 realignment, and take out the non-football schools when setting the class ranges, right now we would be looking at approximately 76 4A schools, 116 3A schools, 115 2A schools, and 111 1A schools (only about 75 with football). The class range cut lines would be as follows: 1A ADM up to 626....2A ADM from 628-1013.....3A ADM from 1014-1596.....4A ADM from 1622-3513
If they go to a straight up 25/25/25/25 and not take into account whether or not a school has a football program....That would put 104-105 schools in each class, and allow 4A to probably go back to 64 teams in the playoffs (and 1A in many sports, not football though), and the cut lines would be as follows: 1A: ADM up to 592.....2A would be ADM 596-943.....3A would be ADM 944-1480......4A would be ADM 1482-3513.
Many schools will probably look much different next year, but remember one thing, just like every year if you go into the A or AA subdivisions for the playoffs: It's not just about whether or not your school goes up or down; it's about how much you rise or fall, RELATIVE TO EVERYBODY ELSE
What the NCHSAA did for the 2017 realignment, to offset this problem of a disproportionate number of 1A schools without football, was go to a 20%/30%/30%/20%, using only the football playing schools (about 380) from the total number (about 420), then when they set the ADM range for 1A/2A/3A/4A, then went back and plugged in the non-football schools in the appropriate class, so we wound up with something like 78 4A schools, 114 3A schools, 116 2A schools (DSA & NCSSM without football), and 111 1A schools (including about 75 with football plus about 36 without it).
Looking ahead to 2021, many are clamoring to return to the old 25/25/25/25, but here's the problem: If we go to a straight 25/25/25/25 and use the same process of taking out the non-football schools to set the range for each class, then add them in after the class range is set, then we wind up with something like: 95 schools in 4A, 96 schools in 3A, 97 schools in 2A (these all seem reasonable) BUT....132 in 1A, with potentially 4 or 5 new ones added every year or two as more charter schools open...and bear in mind, about 36 or more of them do not have football)....perhaps the board of directors or realignment committee or whoever decides such matters would be ok with this, as it would allow both 1A & 4A football playoffs to probably go back to allowing 64 teams to qualify instead of 48. I think the most troubling aspect of this plan (if football schools are taken out when setting the range) is not that there are 132 1A schools, but that the ranges would be as follows: 1A would be ADM up to ~725.....2A would be ADM ~734-1019.....3A would be ADM ~1023-1506.....and 4A would be ADM ~1507 and up
For what it's worth, if they use the same 20/30/30/20 process they used for the 2017 realignment, and take out the non-football schools when setting the class ranges, right now we would be looking at approximately 76 4A schools, 116 3A schools, 115 2A schools, and 111 1A schools (only about 75 with football). The class range cut lines would be as follows: 1A ADM up to 626....2A ADM from 628-1013.....3A ADM from 1014-1596.....4A ADM from 1622-3513
If they go to a straight up 25/25/25/25 and not take into account whether or not a school has a football program....That would put 104-105 schools in each class, and allow 4A to probably go back to 64 teams in the playoffs (and 1A in many sports, not football though), and the cut lines would be as follows: 1A: ADM up to 592.....2A would be ADM 596-943.....3A would be ADM 944-1480......4A would be ADM 1482-3513.
Many schools will probably look much different next year, but remember one thing, just like every year if you go into the A or AA subdivisions for the playoffs: It's not just about whether or not your school goes up or down; it's about how much you rise or fall, RELATIVE TO EVERYBODY ELSE
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