Question for Brian Simmons, Simmons Ratings

[SWE'98]

Hey Mr. Simmons. I have enjoyed your site for many years, and respect the work you put into it. And the accuracy of your predictions using your formulas is more than impressive. I have never had a reason to question it until now, and I'm not being biased. I'm genuinely curious.
In the wake of the regional championship games, you have SW Edgecombe ranked and rated one spot ahead of Kinston. The strength of schedule also favors SWE 39 to 52. By all accounts, your system has SWE as being the better team. However, the same system has Kinston winning the teams' meeting by 1. I'm assuming that it has to do with Kinston being at home. First, is that correct? And if it is, how much of an advantage is home field within your system?

 

[sasha_nc]

SWE, home is 2 points.

I calculate the spread for each game by taking the power ratings of the two
teams and adding in two points for the home team. If the margin of victory
exceeds 42 points, take the difference between the forecast spread and 42 and
divide by 2 to get my projected spread, due to the new NC mercy rule(running
clock once spread hits 42). For example, 60 points would become 51; 50 points
would become 46, etc. The predictions will become more accurate as the season
progresses.​

 

[SWE'98]

Derp. Was right there in my face. Lol. I should delete this post, but no...I'm gonna show what an idiot I am. Some people probably didn't need confirmation.

 

[Darkhorse04]

Simmons picked Andrews over Clinton by 10 last week, now Clinton over Bunn by 9, welcome back on the bandwagon Simmons. Keep picking the opposing team, we like being the underdog hence our mascot name.

 

[SWE'98]

Darkhorse, I don't think his picks come from what he personally thinks. I think they come from the numbers, using the record of the teams that each team has
beaten, point total, whether the team is home or away, etc. I think it's more of a formula than personal opinion.

 

[Wizard of the East]

Hard to figure

 

[SimmonsRatings]

That is correct. My picks are purely based on numbers, not what I think. I wasn't surprised Clinton beat Andrews at all. I actually think Clinton will beat Bunn by about 2-3 TD's, not 9, by the way. Skinner should have a big night!

 

[sasha_nc]

Hey Mr. Simmons. I have enjoyed your site for many years, and respect the work you put into it. And the accuracy of your predictions using your formulas is more than impressive. I have never had a reason to question it until now, and I'm not being biased. I'm genuinely curious.
In the wake of the regional championship games, you have SW Edgecombe ranked and rated one spot ahead of Kinston. The strength of schedule also favors SWE 39 to 52. By all accounts, your system has SWE as being the better team. However, the same system has Kinston winning the teams' meeting by 1. I'm assuming that it has to do with Kinston being at home. First, is that correct? And if it is, how much of an advantage is home field within your system?

I guess Brian Simmons formula was right. Read the game updates - sounds like you saw a great game.