Likely 4A and 4AA Regional Winners

[mrhonda]

As we get closer to the start of the playoffs, I've run some computer models and looked at information. I'm listing the likely winners of the regions in 4A and 4AA. I'll be listing all of the teams in each region in the order of how likely they are to win the region. Keep in mind, this is not a personal prediction. I'm not saying this order is set in concrete. No one can say that. Lots of things can happen, once playoff competition begins. I've attempted to analyze each region and list the teams in order of their likelihood of winning their region. The listings are below.

4A East

In this region, you have basically New Bern and Scotland. I've listed New Bern first, based on the models. But in reality, you basically have 1 and 1A. I would not be surprised if either one of these teams comes out of this region. Though this region has some good teams, it looks like Scotland and New Bern are the cream of the crop.

Seventy-First and Rose are in the next tier. But, I would put Seventy-First a few steps ahead of Rose. Hoggard and Connelly could make a run if the stars align correctly. The rest of the teams in this region are in the next tier.

◾New Bern
◾Scotland
◾Seventy-First
◾Rose
◾Hoggard
◾Conley
◾E.E. Smith
◾East Wake
◾Hillside
◾New Hanover
◾Cape Fear
◾South Central
◾West Johnston
◾Clayton
◾Northern
◾Riverside

4A West

In this region, Dudley would have been a slight favorite to win 4A West. But, with Dudley not in the playoffs, Charlotte Catholic is the slight favorite to take this region. They aren't a prohibitive favorite, but are the most likely to win this region. I want to make a point that without Dudley, this will NOT be an asterisk championship for whoever wins this region. There are many quality teams here. With that being said, this region is going to be exciting. You have Charlotte Catholic, Vance, Reagan, and Mooresville, who could all escape this region with the right circumstances coming into play. High Point Central, North Davidson, A.L. Brown and Rocky River will all be competitive, but not having enough horses to challenge the top teams.

Charlotte Catholic
◾Vance
◾Reagan
◾Mooresville
◾High Point Central
◾North Davidson
◾A.L. Brown
◾Rocky River
◾Southeast Guilford
◾Mount Tabor
◾Ragsdale
◾Davie County
◾South Caldwell
◾Watauga
◾T.C. Roberson

4AA East

In this region, you have a definite top tier, Richmond, Wake Forest and Garner. Many people have Richmond tabbed as the winner here. I'm going to be the contrarian and indicate, again in this region, you have 1 and 1A, with Garner close behind. Based on the computer models, I have Wake Forest as a very slight favorite to escape this region. But, I would not be shocked if Wake Forest, Garner or Richmond take this region. You have Wake Forest, Richmond and Garner with some separation from the rest of the pack. Then you have a second tier of Middle Creek, Millbrook, Pinecrest and Panther Creek. The rest of the region, one could roll the dice.

◾Wake Forest
◾Richmond Garner
◾Middle Creek
◾Millbrook
◾Pinecrest
◾Panther Creek
◾Heritage
◾Green Hope
◾Holly Springs
◾Jack Britt
◾Apex
◾Fuquay-Varina
◾Leesville Road
◾Wakefield
◾Laney

4AA West

This region is traditionally one of the state's toughest regions. There's a definite tier structure this season. East Forsyth, Butler, Independence and Mallard Creek make up the definite upper tier. It will be close, but East Forsyth will have to run the gauntlet to win this region, much like Page had to do in 2011. Hough and West Forsyth could be competitive and make a move with the right star alignment as well. The problem these two clubs have, is they meet in their opening playoff game. The rest of the region could be competitive, with West Charlotte and McDowell trailing.

◾Independence
◾Mallard Creek
◾Butler
◾East Forsyth
◾Hough
◾West Forsyth
◾Lake Norman
◾South Mecklenburg
◾Providence
◾Ardrey Kell
◾Northwest Guilford
◾Myers Park
◾Olympic
◾Page
◾West Charlotte
◾McDowell
This post was edited on 11/12 1:32 PM by mrhonda

 

[btango]

New Bern over Scotland
Mooresville over Catholic
New Bern over Mooresville

Wake Forest over Garner
Mallard Creek over Indy
Mallard Creek over Wake Forest

I think Scotland and New Bern are going to be tough to derail before they meet. Do 71st and Hoggard have complete enough teams to compete? If Dudley is in I still take New Bern.

Mooresville could easily lose to Vance. Reagan could be the best in 4A west taking out Catholic before they make the title game.

Indy could lose to Hough in round two if Hough gets by West Forsyth. Indy is real tough if the QB is in the groove.

East Forsyth may be the in regional final with Butler and MC beating each other up in the third round.

This is the most interesting 4A playoffs in years.

 

[tigertown21]

Scotland over 71st

Catholic over Mooresville

Scotland over Catholic

Richmond over Garner

East Forsyth over Indy

Richmond over East Forsyth

 

[portcity FB]

Originally posted by btango:

I think Scotland and New Bern are going to be tough to derail before they meet. Do 71st and Hoggard have complete enough teams to compete? If Dudley is in I still take New Bern.

I haven't seen 71st play live. As for Hoggard, I just don't know. Their scd has turned out to be so bad this year. They have done what strong teams should do against those opponents. Hoggard starters didn't play in the second half of four games and they didn't play in the fourth qrt in 4 other games. They beat NH, PS an Lumberton about as bad as SC beat those opp. The Charlotte Christian game would have showed us a lot but that didn't happen. I do feel Hoggard wins that game by two scores but we will never know. CC didn't push Hoggard around at all but I don't know how hoggard shows against the quality teams like NB and SC. I hope they get that far. I look for Hoggard to come out strong Friday. We will see.

 

[btango]

It looks like Wake Forest could be without their coach for some games due to DWI charge. That could be a game changer.

 

[portcity FB]

Originally posted by btango:
It looks like Wake Forest could be without their coach for some games due to DWI charge. That could be a game changer.

I agree. I witnessed first hand this year. Hoggard played 5 games or so without their leader. I think the staff did a great job but there was a difference.

This post was edited on 11/13 4:06 PM by portcity FB

 

[mrhonda]

That could be a game changer. Wow