2A/2AA Playoff Projections (GrizzlyDevil)

[GrizzlyDevil]

I just noticed that Tarheelg had posted his projections...I haven't looked at them, but I know that he is normally spot on. So I hope I'm close!

This is my first ever time doing a projection...feedback would be appreciated. I used SimmonsRatings to help project the games this Friday night. In the event of a conference tie I used the adjusted MaxPreps Rankings to rank the conference order (I'm assuming they'll actually draw). Obviously a lot rides on the outcomes of the games played on Friday night. Even with my projections there is no way to tell how the MaxPreps Rankings will change. I used the ADM numbers from the NCHSAA site and used the Longitudes that SimmonsRatings had on his site.

Smallest 2AA: Newton Conover (816)
Largest 2A: SW Edgecombe (814)

Eastern most West team (2A): Eastern Randolph
Western most East team (2A): Bartlett Yancey

Eastern most West team (2AA): East Lincoln
Western most East team (2AA): North Surry

2A West
1 - Mountain Heritage
16 - Hendersonville

8 - Chase
9 - Owen

5 - West Stokes
12 - Providence Grove

4 - Anson
13 - Draughn
---------------------
3 - Reidsville
14 - North Wilkes

6 - Eastern Randolph
11 - Walkertown

7 - West Stanly
10 - Thomasville

2 - Brevard
15 - Forbush


2A East
1 - Clinton
16 - East Bladen

8 - Beddingfield
9 - Bartlett Yancey

5 - West Craven
12 - Ayden Grifton

4 - Red Springs
13 - Goldsboro
----------------------
3 - SW Edgecombe
14 - Kinston

6 - SW Onslow
11 - Midway

7 - Whiteville
10 - Wallace Rose Hill

2 - Northeastern
15 - Fairmont


2AA West
1 - Shelby
16 - Bandys

8 - Bunker Hill
9 - East Lincoln

5 - Burns
12 - Newton Conover

4 - Ashe County
13 - South Point
----------------------
3 - Hibriten
14 - Wilkes Central

6 - Pisgah
11 - West Lincoln

7 - Maiden
10 - Smoky Mountain

2 - North Lincoln
15 - RS Central


2AA East
1 - Randleman
16 - Morehead

8 - North Surry
9 - East Duplin

5 - Washington
12 - Currituck County

4 - Hertford County
13 - North Lenoir
--------------------------
3 - South Granville
14 - North Davidson

6 - Salisbury
11 - St. Pauls

7 - Croatan
10 - Ledford

2 - Oak Grove
15 - Nash Central

 

[tarheelg]

Do you have First Flight beating Currituck this Friday night? It could happen; stranger things happened last week....That's what it would take to drop Currituck them to a 12 seed, and if that happens, Northeastern can't be #2 overall seed in small 2A, as they would be seeded in tier of 2s instead of 1s....this league may have a draw with a 3 way tie, but the draw would not affect every team unless all three went in 2AA or small 2A, and that ain't happening with Currituck's ADM of 1000 and Northeastern's 630....if they separate like this, the one that goes alone into 2A or 2AA automatically gets seeded with conference champions (what I've called Tier of 1s), in this case Northeastern in 2A...then in other subdivision, whoever won the head to head meeting gets in Tier of 1s (Currituck beat Hertford), then the draw affects Hertford only....if they drew 3, they'll be a wild card, if they drew 2, they'll be a 2...if they drew 1, they'd also be a 2, because Currituck got the 1, and you can't have two teams from the same conference in the same tier in the same subdivision

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

I don't think I did... not at my computer to check. Did you "re-tier" after the ADM split?

I may have went about it wrong...I tiered out the cut of 64, then split to 32s from ADMs, then divided each 32 based of longitudes. Then each 16 was seeded based off of the Adjusted MaxPreps for all tier 1s, then 2s, then 3s (was only 1) then all at larges.

Is that not right? Wouldn't be the first time I didn't read the directions correctly haha.

 

[tarheelg]

I don't think I did... not at my computer to check. Did you "re-tier" after the ADM split?

I may have went about it wrong...I tiered out the cut of 64, then split to 32s from ADMs, then divided each 32 based of longitudes. Then each 16 was seeded based off of the Adjusted MaxPreps for all tier 1s, then 2s, then 3s (was only 1) then all at larges.

Is that not right? Wouldn't be the first time I didn't read the directions correctly haha.

It looks like you did all of those things right about big/small, east/west (and we know there'll be a few changes after the games this Friday)....I didn't check every little thing but glanced over it and the only thing that was really jumped off the page at me was seeing Currituck seeded below Hertford in 2AA East....which can't happen if they finished in a 3 way tie with Northeastern, and Northeastern went small 2A, and Currituck beat Hertford, and they both went 2AA (unless those rules changed and they didn't tell us)

 

[Northfan2020]

These projections are great! Thanks Grizzly and tar heel!

If correct... Maiden could get another crack at us

 

[Wizard of the East]

looks about right to me

 

[daagoob]

Do you have First Flight beating Currituck this Friday night? It could happen; stranger things happened last week....That's what it would take to drop Currituck them to a 12 seed, and if that happens, Northeastern can't be #2 overall seed in small 2A, as they would be seeded in tier of 2s instead of 1s....this league may have a draw with a 3 way tie, but the draw would not affect every team unless all three went in 2AA or small 2A, and that ain't happening with Currituck's ADM of 1000 and Northeastern's 630....if they separate like this, the one that goes alone into 2A or 2AA automatically gets seeded with conference champions (what I've called Tier of 1s), in this case Northeastern in 2A...then in other subdivision, whoever won the head to head meeting gets in Tier of 1s (Currituck beat Hertford), then the draw affects Hertford only....if they drew 3, they'll be a wild card, if they drew 2, they'll be a 2...if they drew 1, they'd also be a 2, because Currituck got the 1, and you can't have two teams from the same conference in the same tier in the same subdivision

NE coach called me Fri after our win over FF. He said we would be a 2 seed entering the playoffs because both Currituck and Hertford County would be going 2aa leaving us as conference champs. The three way tie actually helped us out

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

I see. They way I figured is NE, CC, and HC all won on Friday. This would put them in a three way tie. I then used AMPR to "order" them in lieu of not knowing what a draw would give. This made NE-Tier 1, HC- Tier 2, CC-at large in my projection.

Even though NE went 2A and HC and CC went 2AA I didn't change their "tier" so that NE was a 1 and HC was a 1 and CC became a 2. I never saw anything about readjusting the tier after the ADM split.

That would definitely change how I would do my projection!

 

[Maiden Creek]

Goob been telling us the coach was a genius all season long!!

 

[Maiden Creek]

Grizzly... I like yours the best so far. I hope and pray we don’t start with a conference game in the first round!

 

[Maiden Creek]

Hey North fan, ...maiden gotta focus on Lankerton first! They gonna give us fits! I promise you!

Smoky Mtn. Ain’t no joke either!

North Lincoln will be there....I hope the Boom Devils will be.

 

[daagoob]

Goob been telling us the coach was a genius all season long!!

I tried to tell everyone, our coach over here is the real deal. So in tune with his players it's scary. All one needs to do is watch him in pregame and you'd understand. He told me his plan a few weeks back and it's damn near spot on, although that one Friday when Reidsville, Clinton,Wrh,and Kinston all lost almost threw a kink In his plans. We are right where we want to be at this point and we are fortunate to have all our players healthy and ready to go.

 

[TheMule]

looks about right to me

It will be great to see the DarkHorses a #1 seed again.

 

[tarheelg]

NE coach called me Fri after our win over FF. He said we would be a 2 seed entering the playoffs because both Currituck and Hertford County would be going 2aa leaving us as conference champs. The three way tie actually helped us out

Just to clarify, you mean 2 seed as in 2 out of 16 in the bracket and not 2nd place in conference right? I think we are on the same page, just making sure

 

[tarheelg]

I see. They way I figured is NE, CC, and HC all won on Friday. This would put them in a three way tie. I then used AMPR to "order" them in lieu of not knowing what a draw would give. This made NE-Tier 1, HC- Tier 2, CC-at large in my projection.

Even though NE went 2A and HC and CC went 2AA I didn't change their "tier" so that NE was a 1 and HC was a 1 and CC became a 2. I never saw anything about readjusting the tier after the ADM split.

That would definitely change how I would do my projection!

Yes, it's hard to find all of the rules in one place for some reason, but the AMPR are to order them within a tier, the tough part here is getting them in the right tier, and like we've established, 2 of the 3 will go in tier of 1s if possible (in different subdivisions), then the draw only affects the one that lost head to head that went in same subdivision as the team they were tied with (and they can't be in tier of 1s)

 

[daagoob]

Just to clarify, you mean 2 seed as in 2 out of 16 in the bracket and not 2nd place in conference right? I think we are on the same page, just making sure

Yes that's correct. He said Clinton would more than likely be the #1 overall seed in the east and we would come in at #2. He broke it all down to me but it was kind of confusing, at least for myself anyway lol.

 

[owen98]

Tarheelg. Do you see a scenario where Owen gets a higher seed than a 9? For example a Chase loss to RS or something like that. I'm fine traveling to Chase if we have a 8-9 matchup, just wondering if we could get a home game. Chase is pretty close so it's not a biggie.

 

[Maiden Creek]

Westbound Nor’easter rolling through soon!

 

[tarheelg]

Tarheelg. Do you see a scenario where Owen gets a higher seed than a 9? For example a Chase loss to RS or something like that. I'm fine traveling to Chase if we have a 8-9 matchup, just wondering if we could get a home game. Chase is pretty close so it's not a biggie.

Yes, it's possible, start of course by beating Madison...and yes, a Chase loss would definitely help you, but still nothing guaranteed....you also need Thomasville to not pass you, which could happen...also remember there's the possibility of Shelby going to that bracket and moving everybody down a spot....not going to say it's impossible for Owen to be at home in 1st Rd, but you're more likely to go from 9 to 10 or 11 than go up to 8

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Yes, it's hard to find all of the rules in one place for some reason, but the AMPR are to order them within a tier, the tough part here is getting them in the right tier, and like we've established, 2 of the 3 will go in tier of 1s if possible (in different subdivisions), then the draw only affects the one that lost head to head that went in same subdivision as the team they were tied with (and they can't be in tier of 1s)

Fair enough. I didn't realize that you could have multiple tier 1 teams out of one conference. So basically I would need to re-tier the conferences based off the ADM split. So I would tier to establish the field of 64 then once I split into 2A and 2AA I would re-tier for each classification.

To be honest the more I think about it the more I don't like it. A team that doesn't win a conference outright can still get a tier 1 status because the 1st place team went into a different classification.

Oh well. It all is a best guess anyway. I like my version better haha.

 

[owen98]

If we dont beat Madison by 60 I will be surprised. Hopefully nobody passes us up. Our schedule is pretty brutal. We have played ACR, Mitchell, Heritage, Polk, Brevard and a decent Avery team. North and East Hendo and Franklin and Madison are not too good but overall a pretty good schedule. Heck usually Franklin is pretty good. I would be surprised if we fall. Hopefully Shelby doesnt fall into little 2a. That would go from many teams with a shot to Shelby state champs.

 

[tarheelg]

Fair enough. I didn't realize that you could have multiple tier 1 teams out of one conference. So basically I would need to re-tier the conferences based off the ADM split. So I would tier to establish the field of 64 then once I split into 2A and 2AA I would re-tier for each classification.

To be honest the more I think about it the more I don't like it. A team that doesn't win a conference outright can still get a tier 1 status because the 1st place team went into a different classification.

Oh well. It all is a best guess anyway. I like my version better haha.

Only in this situation when they're in different subdivisions....at least that's how they've been doing it for the last 7 or 8 years

 

[daagoob]

Westbound Nor’easter rolling through soon!

Lol, you got that right. That was pretty good.

 

[TGT]

How do you have Bartlett Yancey figured? If they lose to Reidsville there will be a 3-way tie for second in the Mid-State with Cummings and Carrboro also finishing 2-2. There's no clear-cut tie breaker since BY beat Carrboro but lost to Cummings and Cummings beat BY but lost to Carrboro. BY would be the only 2A of the three as both Cummings and Carrboro would be 2AA.

 

[tarheelg]

How do you have Bartlett Yancey figured? If they lose to Reidsville there will be a 3-way tie for second in the Mid-State with Cummings and Carrboro also finishing 2-2. There's no clear-cut tie breaker since BY beat Carrboro but lost to Cummings and Cummings beat BY but lost to Carrboro. BY would be the only 2A of the three as both Cummings and Carrboro would be 2AA.

I can't speak for Grizzly but I just but BY in mine for the moment because you know that league is going to get two bids...if there is that 3 way tie, every bubble team in the state will be rooting for BY to get the 2nd place auto bid in the draw or get 4th place and not get any playoff berth, and for Carrboro to lose to Webb and give the league only 2 bids....if Cummings wins draw and gets 2, they're in automatically of course, and could even host a game; then if Carrboro draws 3, they would have to make it as a wild card based on AMPR, if they lose to Webb, probably not happening, if they beat Webb, probably does happen and league gets 3 bids....if BY draws 3, they would easily get in as wild card, if they draw 4, not getting unless Cummings draws 2 AND Carrboro draws 3 AND beats Webb and gets back in top 62ish, very likely that at least 1, maybe 3 of 4 teams currently ranked in low 50s or high to mid 60s will lose this week

 

[TGT]

I can't speak for Grizzly but I just but BY in mine for the moment because you know that league is going to get two bids...if there is that 3 way tie, every bubble team in the state will be rooting for BY to get the 2nd place auto bid in the draw or get 4th place and not get any playoff berth, and for Carrboro to lose to Webb and give the league only 2 bids....if Cummings wins draw and gets 2, they're in automatically of course, and could even host a game; then if Carrboro draws 3, they would have to make it as a wild card based on AMPR, if they lose to Webb, probably not happening, if they beat Webb, probably does happen and league gets 3 bids....if BY draws 3, they would easily get in as wild card, if they draw 4, not getting unless Cummings draws 2 AND Carrboro draws 3 AND beats Webb and gets back in top 62ish, very likely that at least 1, maybe 3 of 4 teams currently ranked in low 50s or high to mid 60s will lose this week

Thanks ... so it's luck of the draw for the second conference bid. If it's not BY, that will really be crazy. Imagine 2-9 Cummings getting a home game!
Of course, BY could beat Reidsville leaving a tie for first .. also crazy.

 

[notanyonesfan]

Tarheelg. Do you see a scenario where Owen gets a higher seed than a 9? For example a Chase loss to RS or something like that. I'm fine traveling to Chase if we have a 8-9 matchup, just wondering if we could get a home game. Chase is pretty close so it's not a biggie.

Personally, seeing both play against Burns... I think RS beats Chase this week... I thought RS was better on both sides of the ball

 

[tarheelg]

Thanks ... so it's luck of the draw for the second conference bid. If it's not BY, that will really be crazy. Imagine 2-9 Cummings getting a home game!
Of course, BY could beat Reidsville leaving a tie for first .. also crazy.

If BY beats Reidsville it wouldn't be a tie that needs a draw since the head to head win would determine who goes as a 1 and who goes as a 2, then the only other question would be whether Carrboro gets a wild card or not (which I'm not expecting, I saw Webb play 5 days ago and they are much improved from the last couple of years), Cummings only hope is to get in tie and luck of draw

 

[owen98]

It seems RS has been very inconsistent. Up one week and down the next

 

[tarheelg]

It seems RS has been very inconsistent. Up one week and down the next

That's so many teams....high school, college, and pro

 

[tarheelg]

Personally, seeing both play against Burns... I think RS beats Chase this week... I thought RS was better on both sides of the ball

With that said, were you surprised that Chase beat South Point?

 

[owen98]

South Point has endured alot of injuries. With the youth of the team, they have probably quit. It's hard to keep fighting through so much adversity

 

[owen98]

That's so many teams....high school, college, and pro

True...we have been inconsistent until recently it seems we have put it together

 

[notanyonesfan]

With that said, were you surprised that Chase beat South Point?

I was but... It was kind of the perfect storm for SP... Their all everything player is done for the year, they had over an hour trip to Chase, and Chase had a lot to play for, I mean lose the last 2 and they are probably out, plus that new coach wants to beat SP being from Crest... I did expected SP to win, but I always thought it'd be close...

Granted it has been about 5 weeks since I saw Chase but... Burns completely overwhelmed them when they played... You could tell Chase was completely out-manned... Had no answer for the speed of Burns... RS was different... They had enough speed to stay with Burns... They were tougher on defense for sure... They just overall looked better than Chase to me

 

[TGT]

If BY beats Reidsville it wouldn't be a tie that needs a draw since the head to head win would determine who goes as a 1 and who goes as a 2, then the only other question would be whether Carrboro gets a wild card or not (which I'm not expecting, I saw Webb play 5 days ago and they are much improved from the last couple of years), Cummings only hope is to get in tie and luck of draw

Yeah, I knew that. I said crazy because long-suffering Bartlett Yancey would really have a feather in their Buccaneer caps.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

How do you have Bartlett Yancey figured? If they lose to Reidsville there will be a 3-way tie for second in the Mid-State with Cummings and Carrboro also finishing 2-2. There's no clear-cut tie breaker since BY beat Carrboro but lost to Cummings and Cummings beat BY but lost to Carrboro. BY would be the only 2A of the three as both Cummings and Carrboro would be 2AA.

Correct, I have them losing to Reidsville creating the 3 way tie for second. When I come across a tie I assume that the AMPR decides the order. BY (33), Ca (63), Cu (80). In this scenario I had Reidsville go 2A West as a Tier 1 and BY went 2A East Tier 2 (for finishing second in the conference).

As you may have seen above in my back and forth with tarheelg, I didn't realize that each subdivision was tiered a second time, I thought that the 2A as a whole was tiered to establish your 64. Then that same tier was used through the rest of the process. With that thought process, in my projection, 2A West pulled 5 Tier 1s and only 1 Tier 2 team with 10 being wild cards. 2A East pulled 6 Tier 1s, 3 Tier 2s, and 7 wild cards. 2AA West pulled 4 Tier 1s, 4 Tier 2s, and 8 wild cards while 2AA East pulled 3 Tier 1s, 6 Tier 2s, and 6 wild cards.

But if I am understanding tarheelg correctly, each conference should be divided into 2A/2AA and re-tiered. Allowing a single conference to have two Tier 1s because they go to different subdivisions. Or something like that...this is where it gets muddy for me. Does that rule only apply for ties?

Let's use the Mountain Six for example: I have Pisgah winning this Friday giving a three way tie for first. But since Brevard is 2A and Pisgah and Smoky are 2AA then Brevard gets a Tier 1 2A and Smoky gets Tier 1 2AA and Pisgah gets Tier 2 2AA. Correct?

 

[TGT]

Correct, I have them losing to Reidsville creating the 3 way tie for second. When I come across a tie I assume that the AMPR decides the order. BY (33), Ca (63), Cu (80). In this scenario I had Reidsville go 2A West as a Tier 1 and BY went 2A East Tier 2 (for finishing second in the conference).

So you're saying that the AMPR breaks tie instead of a drawing?

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

No Sir...The draw will decide for sure but I have no idea of knowing what will come of that so all I can give is one scenario. In my scenario I just assumed that the better team, according to AMPR, draws best. In this case, BY drew 2, Ca drew 3, and Cu drew 4. This makes BY a Tier 2 and Ca and Cu miss out.

 

[tarheelg]

Correct, I have them losing to Reidsville creating the 3 way tie for second. When I come across a tie I assume that the AMPR decides the order. BY (33), Ca (63), Cu (80). In this scenario I had Reidsville go 2A West as a Tier 1 and BY went 2A East Tier 2 (for finishing second in the conference).

As you may have seen above in my back and forth with tarheelg, I didn't realize that each subdivision was tiered a second time, I thought that the 2A as a whole was tiered to establish your 64. Then that same tier was used through the rest of the process. With that thought process, in my projection, 2A West pulled 5 Tier 1s and only 1 Tier 2 team with 10 being wild cards. 2A East pulled 6 Tier 1s, 3 Tier 2s, and 7 wild cards. 2AA West pulled 4 Tier 1s, 4 Tier 2s, and 8 wild cards while 2AA East pulled 3 Tier 1s, 6 Tier 2s, and 6 wild cards.

But if I am understanding tarheelg correctly, each conference should be divided into 2A/2AA and re-tiered. Allowing a single conference to have two Tier 1s because they go to different subdivisions. Or something like that...this is where it gets muddy for me. Does that rule only apply for ties?

Let's use the Mountain Six for example: I have Pisgah winning this Friday giving a three way tie for first. But since Brevard is 2A and Pisgah and Smoky are 2AA then Brevard gets a Tier 1 2A and Smoky gets Tier 1 2AA and Pisgah gets Tier 2 2AA. Correct?

Yes the Mtn 6 would work out that way.....EXCEPT after posts yesterday, I was messaging somebody about this and it hit me....I THINK (could be wrong) the odd one out in this situation is always going to be a wild card and not a 2 because if the league only gets 2 auto bids, then the two teams gettings 1s exhausted that leagues auto bids....only exception in 2A/2AA would be the Central Carolina where they get 3 auto bids....but it's only possible to have a 3 way tie for 1st if the unthinkable happens and Oak Grove loses to East Davidson

 

[Ramfan200000002]

So if Mt Heritage loses to Polk this Friday does that keep them a #1 seed and if Brevard loses to Pisgah will that keep them a # 2 seed. Or will Reidsville move up any?