1A Playoff Predictions 2 weeks out

[Be_A_Dog]

Only looking at the West

1-3- Comm School of Dav- Will finish 8-2 with win over cherryville and loss to Pine Lake Prep
1-3- T. Jefferson will finish 8-2 with loss to Pine Lake Prep and win over highland tech
1-3- Murphy will finish 8-2 beating Rosman???
4- Robbinsville will finish 7-3 with a win over cherokee and loss to swain
5-6- Rosman will finish 6-4 losing to Murphy???
5-6- North Stokes will finish 6-4 losing to E. Surry and beating Atkins
7-8- Andrews will finish 5-5 with win over Hayesville
7-8 Mountain Island Charter finishes 5-5 splitting their last two games (know nothing about that league)
9-11- Albemarle will finish 4-6 beating Union Academy and S. Stanley
9-11- WS Prep will finish 4-6 beating Atkins
9-11- Hayesville will finish 4-6 losing Andrews and probably beating Cherokee????????????
12-15- Cherokee will finish 3-7 losing to Robbinsville for sure, and probably to Hayesville????????????
12-15- South Stanley finishes 3-7 dropping games to North Stanley and Albemarle
12-15- Alleghany finishes 3-7 squeaking by Elkin, but losing to Starmount
12-15 Bishop McGuinness finishes 3-7 after loss to Walkertown
16- Union Academy finishes 2-8 with losses to Albemarle and North Stanley

Not sure how to break the ties with split conferences and 1A/1AA conferences. These are my predictions and I welcome anyone who can break it down further. Correct my mistakes with your own opinions! lol

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

Only looking at the West

1-3- Comm School of Dav- Will finish 8-2 with win over cherryville and loss to Pine Lake Prep
1-3- T. Jefferson will finish 8-2 with loss to Pine Lake Prep and win over highland tech
1-3- Murphy will finish 8-2 beating Rosman???
4- Robbinsville will finish 7-3 with a win over cherokee and loss to swain
5-6- Rosman will finish 6-4 losing to Murphy???
5-6- North Stokes will finish 6-4 losing to E. Surry and beating Atkins
7-8- Andrews will finish 5-5 with win over Hayesville
7-8 Mountain Island Charter finishes 5-5 splitting their last two games (know nothing about that league)
9-11- Albemarle will finish 4-6 beating Union Academy and S. Stanley
9-11- WS Prep will finish 4-6 beating Atkins
9-11- Hayesville will finish 4-6 losing Andrews and probably beating Cherokee????????????
12-15- Cherokee will finish 3-7 losing to Robbinsville for sure, and probably to Hayesville????????????
12-15- South Stanley finishes 3-7 dropping games to North Stanley and Albemarle
12-15- Alleghany finishes 3-7 squeaking by Elkin, but losing to Starmount
12-15 Bishop McGuinness finishes 3-7 after loss to Walkertown
16- Union Academy finishes 2-8 with losses to Albemarle and North Stanley

Not sure how to break the ties with split conferences and 1A/1AA conferences. These are my predictions and I welcome anyone who can break it down further. Correct my mistakes with your own opinions! lol

Good job with the overall teams that will likely qualify...

I'm assuming that your prediction is for Murphy to beat Swain and Swain to beat Robbinsville for a 3-way tie for the SMC title?

Don't know how that particular scenario will work out, but Swain as you know will be 1AA, while both Murphy and Robbinsville will be Co-Champs with the Black Knights holding the head-to-head tie breaker which IMO would mean that Robbinsville would be seated higher than the Bulldogs if both end up tied for the SMC Title?....It is quite a reach to believe that Murphy will win at Swain, and that Swain will win at Robbinsville, but who knows?

Will be interesting to see how the trio of Andrews, Hayesville and Cherokee will finish as those 3 go head-to-head over the next couple of weeks...

Also will be interesting to see how the Tigers do in Murphy in that final game....Tigers haven't lost a road game this season....

The Alleghany/Elkin game will have somewhat of a playoff feel to it because the Bucking-Elks need to win in order to qualify for the playoffs....I believe the cutoff will be 2 wins this year, and you're in...

Here is a list of the teams in trouble of qualifying for the playoffs:

West:
--------
Atkins-0 wins, and none likely
Highland Tech-Ditto
Chatham Central or South Davidson will finish with 1 win, while the other goes winless..
Avery County's best chance to qualify may have been last week when the Vikings lost to Madison County?
Like Elkin needs to beat Alleghany, Cherryville needs to beat Bessemer City to qualify...

East
---------
Lejeune will probably finish with NO wins
Either NW Halifax or Louisburg will finish with NO wins with the winner probably still left at home, come playoff time?
Both South Robeson and East Columbus will likely finish with 1 win, and NO playoffs, unless East beats West Columbus in the season finale?
Pender Co. and Trask will play in the season finale with the winner getting a playoff bid, and the loser getting ready for basketball...Rocky Mt. Prep, Creswell and Cape Hatteras will all likely finish the season with 1 win, and will be absent when the playoffs begin?

Out of the 36 teams in the West, 6 or 7 teams will likely not qualify which means 2 or 3 Eastern 1A or 1AA teams will be needed to fill the 32 playoff spots in the West...

Question is, which of those Eastern teams will head west?

I think that both West Columbus(1A) and Whiteville(1AA) will be 2 of those teams, but which other Eastern team joins them in the Western Playoffs, and will that team be big or small 1A?

 

[Sleehrat84]

SS will beat Albemarle....

 

[cmcdst18]

I think Granville central will head west also.

 

[Dogs9]

SS will beat Albemarle....

Even as bad of a year it has been for Albemarle I still think they beat South.

 

[Wildcat10fan]

Andrews defeated Cherokee Friday night and will face Hayesville this Friday for the second time. We will have our bye week after that. Hoping to go into Hayesville this week focused. It's always hard the second time around.

 

[egfan]

Is Mountain Island Charter even eligible for the playoffs? They don't play everyone in their conference this year.

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

I think Granville central will head west also.

You're are probably right since they played in the West last year....This year, they and Whiteville will receive a high 1AA seeds since both will likely be champs of their respective conferences....

West Montgomery, East Surry, Pine Lake Prep and East Wilkes will draw for seeds 1-4 if all finish unbeaten....Believe there would probably be a draw between Mitchell and Whiteville for the 5 and 6 seeds with Granville Central getting the 7 if the season ended today?

 

[ObserveAndReport]

Is Mountain Island Charter even eligible for the playoffs? They don't play everyone in their conference this year.

They are. I asked that question a few months back and someone linked this Gaston Gazette article from the summer basically saying that since they're new, they're considered to have played a full conference schedule even though Cherryville couldn't find an open date for them.

http://www.gastongazette.com/article/20150604/Sports/306049974

 

[NC nole fan]

Good job with the overall teams that will likely qualify...

I'm assuming that your prediction is for Murphy to beat Swain and Swain to beat Robbinsville for a 3-way tie for the SMC title?

Don't know how that particular scenario will work out, but Swain as you know will be 1AA, while both Murphy and Robbinsville will be Co-Champs with the Black Knights holding the head-to-head tie breaker which IMO would mean that Robbinsville would be seated higher than the Bulldogs if both end up tied for the SMC Title?....It is quite a reach to believe that Murphy will win at Swain, and that Swain will win at Robbinsville, but who knows?

Will be interesting to see how the trio of Andrews, Hayesville and Cherokee will finish as those 3 go head-to-head over the next couple of weeks...

Also will be interesting to see how the Tigers do in Murphy in that final game....Tigers haven't lost a road game this season....

The Alleghany/Elkin game will have somewhat of a playoff feel to it because the Bucking-Elks need to win in order to qualify for the playoffs....I believe the cutoff will be 2 wins this year, and you're in...

Here is a list of the teams in trouble of qualifying for the playoffs:

West:
--------
Atkins-0 wins, and none likely
Highland Tech-Ditto
Chatham Central or South Davidson will finish with 1 win, while the other goes winless..
Avery County's best chance to qualify may have been last week when the Vikings lost to Madison County?
Like Elkin needs to beat Alleghany, Cherryville needs to beat Bessemer City to qualify...

East
---------
Lejeune will probably finish with NO wins
Either NW Halifax or Louisburg will finish with NO wins with the winner probably still left at home, come playoff time?
Both South Robeson and East Columbus will likely finish with 1 win, and NO playoffs, unless East beats West Columbus in the season finale?
Pender Co. and Trask will play in the season finale with the winner getting a playoff bid, and the loser getting ready for basketball...Rocky Mt. Prep, Creswell and Cape Hatteras will all likely finish the season with 1 win, and will be absent when the playoffs begin?

Out of the 36 teams in the West, 6 or 7 teams will likely not qualify which means 2 or 3 Eastern 1A or 1AA teams will be needed to fill the 32 playoff spots in the West...

Question is, which of those Eastern teams will head west?

I think that both West Columbus(1A) and Whiteville(1AA) will be 2 of those teams, but which other Eastern team joins them in the Western Playoffs, and will that team be big or small 1A?

Ordinarily that would be correct in the event of a three way tie (about Robbinsville being seeded higher than Murphy because they won the head to head match up), but wouldn't Murphy be seeded higher than Robbinsville this year if a three way tie were to happen since Robbinsville would end the season with three losses while Murphy would be 9-2? Actually since Murphy played 11 games they could drop the Franklin loss and would be 9-1. Robbinsville only plays 10 games this year so they can't drop a loss. So their final record if they lose to Swain would be 7-3. Murphy would be two full games ahead of Robbinsville even though Robbinsville beat them. Looks like it's all or nothing for Robbinsville this year. A three way tie means another likely trip to Murphy unless head to head trumps overall record. Wouldn't the head to head apply only if both teams had the same overall record? Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[goknightgo]

Good ? Nole Fan. You would think your theory would be correct in all curcumstances but who knows these days with the way they have everything set up. What do you think your chances are with Swain this week?

 

[NC nole fan]

Good ? Nole Fan. You would think your theory would be correct in all curcumstances but who knows these days with the way they have everything set up. What do you think your chances are with Swain this week?

It would be interesting to see how it turns out with the seeding if this were to happen, but I think it's a moot point because I don't think Murphy will beat Swain and I don't think Swain will beat Robbinsville next week either.

 

[Tigertown_a_Rick]

Ordinarily that would be correct in the event of a three way tie (about Robbinsville being seeded higher than Murphy because they won the head to head match up), but wouldn't Murphy be seeded higher than Robbinsville this year if a three way tie were to happen since Robbinsville would end the season with three losses while Murphy would be 9-2? Actually since Murphy played 11 games they could drop the Franklin loss and would be 9-1. Robbinsville only plays 10 games this year so they can't drop a loss. So their final record if they lose to Swain would be 7-3. Murphy would be two full games ahead of Robbinsville even though Robbinsville beat them. Looks like it's all or nothing for Robbinsville this year. A three way tie means another likely trip to Murphy unless head to head trumps overall record. Wouldn't the head to head apply only if both teams had the same overall record? Correct me if I'm wrong.

Let's look at the scenarios for the Big 3:

Swain County(6-3 & 4-0)- A Maroondevils win over Murphy would likely set up a SMC title Showdown with Robbinsville(6-2 & 4-0) the following week, provided the Black Knights get the job done in Cherokee this friday?...

A Swain County loss to Murphy would for the time being put the Maroondevils in a tie with Murphy for 2nd with Murphy holding the head-to-head tie-breaker, meaning Murphy would be seeded 2nd with a chance to earn a piece of the SMC title "IF" Swain were to beat Robbinsville....

If Swain County loses to Murphy, but beats Robbinsville?....There would be a drawing for the top spot, but this is where it gets a little tricky for me because if Swain wins the draw to take the #1 seed that would leave Murphy and Robbinsville to draw for the 2nd seed, but would a drawing be necessary since the Black Knights beat the Bulldogs head-to-head with both participating in the 1A playoffs?....I just don't know how the NCHSAA selection process would work in this case....Technically if Murphy won the draw for 2nd, they would recieve the top 1A seed from the SMC , and would probably be seeded 2nd behind CSOD in the 1A Playoffs if the Spartans run the table, and beat PIne Lake Prep in the season finale in Davidson....A loss by the Spartans in this case, would push Murphy to the top seed in the West...

If Swain County wins out, the Maroondevils get the top seed with Robbinsville getting the #2 with 1 SMC loss, leaving Murphy and Rosman to fight it out for the 3rd seed in the SMC in the season finale at "The Hill"...

Bottom line: Murphy needs to beat Swain on friday!

Robbinsville just needs to win out as everyone knows to claim the top 1A seed....

Here's another playoff seeding quirk that no one is even talking about:

What if Swain loses to both Murphy and Robbinsville, but Rosman beats Murphy in the season finale, leaving Rosman, Murphy and Swain County tied for 2nd....There would be a drawing for positions 2-4 if that were to happen with Rosman having a chance to grab the 2nd seed from the SMC....

Lots of combinations to be sorted out over the next couple of weeks...Isn't the SMC great!

Roar Tigers Roar!

 

[knine1]

awesome work guys on the seeding possibilities !! only 2 weeks left and my Bulldogs could still be the top seed or as low as the 4th seed. Rosman could still go as high as a no.2 seed. Swain could go anywhere from 1-4. To quote the late, great Gordon Solie, the smc is a "Pier 6 brawl this year". The top 4 will definantly be battle tested come playoff time and I think it will show in the results.

 

[wtxycolor]

South Robeson has 2 wins. They typically go west. They have a forfeit win over West Bladen and beat East Columbus. West Columbus also has 2 wins and has St. Pauls and East Columbus left, both possible wins depending on which Viking team shows up. South Rob and West Columbus both have gone west in 1A recently. West ADM number will be below 500. Don't know about South Rob.

 

[gotoblueg]

I was told last night by principal WC is at 473
right now. WC lost to St. Pauls 44--38 with tie
touch down called back with 2:14 on clock.

 

[Go4itKnights]

Ordinarily that would be correct in the event of a three way tie (about Robbinsville being seeded higher than Murphy because they won the head to head match up), but wouldn't Murphy be seeded higher than Robbinsville this year if a three way tie were to happen since Robbinsville would end the season with three losses while Murphy would be 9-2? Actually since Murphy played 11 games they could drop the Franklin loss and would be 9-1. Robbinsville only plays 10 games this year so they can't drop a loss. So their final record if they lose to Swain would be 7-3. Murphy would be two full games ahead of Robbinsville even though Robbinsville beat them. Looks like it's all or nothing for Robbinsville this year. A three way tie means another likely trip to Murphy unless head to head trumps overall record. Wouldn't the head to head apply only if both teams had the same overall record? Correct me if I'm wrong.

Whew, glad we all didn't have to worry about all that ... you Murphy boys are a trip.

 

[NC nole fan]

Whew, glad we all didn't have to worry about all that ... you Murphy boys are a trip.

Yeah buddy! It took you this long to comment on something that was decided a week ago. You Robbinsville boys are slow.

 

[BK13T-$]

Rville boys are slow?

Well.....the defending SMC(2 time) champs and defending State Champs most not be to slow. lol.

 

[SamTheMan]

They looked pretty fast to me the night they played murpy! (and everybody else in SMC)

 

[NC nole fan]

Good one bk. Did you come up with that all by yourself, or did Sam help you? As a matter of fact, why are you talking at all Sam? I mean really lol....

 

[BK13T-$]

Viking08 thinks Robbinsville plays to rough. haha.