1a mens basketball bracket predicition

[Kevin2346]

1)Winston Salem Prep or Lincoln Charter bye. Vs ( 16.) Albemarle vs. 17.) Bishop.

8.) Starmount bye. Vs. 9.)Hiawassee vs 24.)East Surry

4.)North Stanly or Cherokee bye. Vs (12. Hayesville vs 21. Chatham Charter

5.)West Columbus or Avery County bye Vs. (13. North Rowan vs. 20(Chatham Central)

2.)Winston Salem Prep or Lincoln Charter bye Vs. (15. Roxboro Community vs 18. Mount Airy)

7.)Pine Lake Prep bye Vs. (10. South Stokes vs 23 Highland Tech)

3.)Cherokee or North Stanly Vs. (14. Bessemer City vs 19. Mountain Island Charter

6. West Columbus or Avery County bye Vs. (11.)Community School of Davidson vs 22. Murphy)

Thoughts? Not sure about 24.) East surry..ive seen predictions for Mitchell but there record is aweful dont see a rule that allows them in.

 

[NWWatchdog]

Apparently Mitchell will get in, despite an atrocious record, and East Surry won't. It seems the NCHSAA changed playoff seeding rules mid-year at their winter board meeting due to a football team having a good record. Even though they haven't posted the minutes for the winter meeting, they are applying the change immediately for basketball. During football all automatic qualifiers were seeded, then the rest of the bracket was seeded based solely off of Maxpreps rankings. Now they will seed automatic qualifiers, then fill wild cards with all "3rd best teams per conference", all "4th best teams", etc. With this model a 4-16 Mitchell with a Maxpreps ranking of 58th would get in over a 12-9 East Surry with a Maxpreps ranking of 25 ONLY because Mitchell is the "2nd best" 1A team in a split 1A/2A conference. Additionally, a team like Bishop McGuinness (who is currently ranked 4th in the NW1A) could end up as an 18-19 seed and have to travel every round despite having a 17-4 record and being ranked 5th in the state in Maxpreps rankings. I can understand the frustration and why people were upset during football season when a team with an 8-3/9-2 record didn't get in, but there is NO SCENARIO where a 4-16 team deserves to get into the playoffs over a 12-9 team. The NCHSAA needs to go back to the drawing board this spring and revamp their playoff seeding process, especially for 1A and 4A who only have 48 teams making the field rather than 64 teams like 2A and 3A. They need to have some sort of minimum winning percentage just to make the playoffs...maybe .400 or something. This current format is ridiculous!

 

[ncball04]

It will be crazy if Mitchell really gets in over East Surry on the boys side. The NCHSAA is a train wreck and I really think the wheels are starting to come off. The ONLY teams who should be guaranteed in are the ones who win their conference or conference tournament. The rest should qualify based on their body of work and off of their ranking. Starmount who will win their conference and receive a high seed, would be LUCKY to finish above 4th in the Northwest 1A. The conference is stacked and it is unfair to punish a 12-9 team who have 6 losses from those teams, and 2 more losses from the WPAC 2A Champion, and the other loss being a very close one on Starmounts home floor. The NCHSAA should be ashamed.

 

[knights4]

Starmount would finish 5th in the NW Conference. No doubt about that. The mountain valley is very weak this year and several bad teams have taken Starmount to OT or down to the wire. They did take South Stokes to OT but I don't see them shooting again like they did that night. I don't think there should be any #2 teams from conferences be automatic qualifiers. Like stated above, only conf and tourney champs. All 1 seeds should get seeded first then everybody else seeded by overall rankings by maxpreps. I wouldn't be opposed to getting all auto qualifiers and at large teams determined then seed everybody by overall maxpreps rankings regardless of conference finish.

 

[Lovetoplaysports]

Maxpreps rankings are not accurate at all. Not sure how they come up with the numbers to say what teams warrant a higher ranking over another...Where do they get their initial data from to say this team warrants this score and this team this score? I saw a team that was 7-0 at one time and they were ranked 187th...and I saw a team that was 4-3 ranked 64th....who says that the 7-0 team isn't better than the 4-3 team? I get the strength of schedule but where are they getting data to say 1 team is better than another team far as their strength....seems like a mess to me.....Here is an idea....go with the best 48 teams ( I say 64)...throw them in a pot....let them play....best teams come out in the end.....To put a team with a losing record (highlands) with a first round by because they play in 3-4 team conference is ludicrous to say the least...They would finish last in most conferences across NC...just my two cents.....but Maxpreps is not an accurate measurement of rankings.....

 

[ColeridgeNC]

I agree with previous poster.

All regular season conference champions and conference tournament champions are automatically in but t he field is seeded based on maxpreps power ranking.

If a terrible team in a terrible conference wins regular season but is #48 they should be seeded as such. Still automatically in, but seeded appropriately.


If a good team finishes third in a strong conference, and is #12 or so in maxpreps, they should be seeded as such.

 

[AHVikingNation]

So records don't matter? Just MaxPreps ranking outside of automatics being in one group and at-large in another.

 

[NWWatchdog]

So records don't matter? Just MaxPreps ranking outside of automatics being in one group and at-large in another.

The only record that matters is your conference record, which will put you in a position within your conference. The newest tweak to the system is taking teams in order of their conference finish (which is absolutely stupid, especially considering split conferences where a team might be 5th overall but the "2nd" 1A team).

 

[NWWatchdog]

Maxpreps rankings are not accurate at all. Not sure how they come up with the numbers to say what teams warrant a higher ranking over another...Where do they get their initial data from to say this team warrants this score and this team this score? I saw a team that was 7-0 at one time and they were ranked 187th...and I saw a team that was 4-3 ranked 64th....who says that the 7-0 team isn't better than the 4-3 team? I get the strength of schedule but where are they getting data to say 1 team is better than another team far as their strength....seems like a mess to me.....Here is an idea....go with the best 48 teams ( I say 64)...throw them in a pot....let them play....best teams come out in the end.....To put a team with a losing record (highlands) with a first round by because they play in 3-4 team conference is ludicrous to say the least...They would finish last in most conferences across NC...just my two cents.....but Maxpreps is not an accurate measurement of rankings.....

I agree with you...but how do we measure or determine the 48 "best" teams? I don't necessarily think Maxpreps is the end all/be all determinant, but it does at least factor in strength of schedule which is a valid argument. You could also look at overall record, but again that would benefit the teams who play cream puff schedules. I think we can all agree though that no team who is 4-16 (a .200 winning percentage) deserves to be in the playoffs...yet that is what this system currently gives us by rewarding bad teams just because they are in split conferences. The system is broken. Lets hope the NCHSAA does the right thing and fixes this mess.

 

[Chute Boxe Hero]

The team I'm intrigued with the most is Community School of Davidson. I wonder just how good they really are.

 

[Chute Boxe Hero]

The team I'm intrigued with the most is Community School of Davidson. I wonder just how good they really are.

Hmmm. Took an L last night........

 

[Chute Boxe Hero]

I've seen Chatham Charter. They're a fairly decent squad. They've got two guys (Jason Foulks/Cade Culbertson) who could probably play D-3/Comm. College ball. That trip to Hayesville would be tough though. Josh Cotrell's an outstanding PG.

 

[killa_15]

Starmount would finish 5th in the NW Conference. No doubt about that. The mountain valley is very weak this year and several bad teams have taken Starmount to OT or down to the wire. They did take South Stokes to OT but I don't see them shooting again like they did that night. I don't think there should be any #2 teams from conferences be automatic qualifiers. Like stated above, only conf and tourney champs. All 1 seeds should get seeded first then everybody else seeded by overall rankings by maxpreps. I wouldn't be opposed to getting all auto qualifiers and at large teams determined then seed everybody by overall maxpreps rankings regardless of conference finish.

From the look on MaxPreps Starmount still won their 1A/2A Split Conference so either way they would get one of the #1-8 Seeds. Predict all you want, but they played East Surry, North Stokes and South Stokes relatively well. If they competed day in and day out they could compete consistently in NW 1A. Only seen them play 3-4 times, but they look like a solid group of players.
The Rankings are definitely flawed. Big Smokey/Little Smokey usually knock out a team who would have a better record. Happens every year .
Hiwassee Dam has a 4-1 Conference Record for the entire season...that's a joke, where as Swain who is a Big Smokey example has 12 game conference record of 6-6??? NCHSAA needs to figure out something better in the Smokey Conference because it's not comparable to other teams.

NCHSAA should also release more information to schools about what goes into the "Adjusted" Max Preps Rankings. Lincoln Charter and WS Prep are the best and have tough strength of schedule. They've flip flopped the past 3 years between rankings, Just Overall Record and Win %, to "Adjusted Rankings". Teams don't know how to schedule. For example a Bishop or Mt. Airy who play in a tough Conference, should they continue scheduling high seeded teams in 2A, 3A or 4A to improve over Strength of Schedule or schedule teams they can get Wins against??

NCHSAA shouldn't leave any grey area. Teams I'm sure schedule games before the Summer Meeting,b ut they have no idea how to schedule.

 

[ColeridgeNC]

I think it just needs to be simpler. And yes, the teams need to know how to schedule. I generally like the MaxPreps formula. I would say all regular season conference champions, conference tournament champions are automatically in. Then the rest are filled in based on Maxpreps power rankings. BUT ALL are seeded based on the rankings. if a conference champions or conference tournament champion are ranked #55 they are in, but likely be a #20 seed or whatever, which is fine.


OR


Just go back to predetermined Conference A #1 plays conference B #4 or whatever it may be.

 

[killa_15]

I think it just needs to be simpler. And yes, the teams need to know how to schedule. I generally like the MaxPreps formula. I would say all regular season conference champions, conference tournament champions are automatically in. Then the rest are filled in based on Maxpreps power rankings. BUT ALL are seeded based on the rankings. if a conference champions or conference tournament champion are ranked #55 they are in, but likely be a #20 seed or whatever, which is fine.


OR


Just go back to predetermined Conference A #1 plays conference B #4 or whatever it may be.

Right....NCHSAA from what I've ready on HSOT doesn't even use the Original Maxpreps....they use the "ADJUSTED" MaxPreps...well NCHSAA, how are they adjusted...what goes into it?

Don't tell coaches its copyright info...
Coaches should know Wins/Losses, Strength of Schedule, Win Margin, etc what are the dominate factors.
Also, is it like NCAA does...
Example: North Stokes started out 10-1 before conference. Then Bishop beats them....does that "Strength of Schedule" based on 10-1 or doesn't the formula continue to update the fact that NS is now 12-10, 0-9 in Conference?
Also Queens Grant is projected to be in at 9-11, but North Stokes (given they finished last in their conference) is 12-9.
It's all madness.

 

[Thatoneguy...]

From the look on MaxPreps Starmount still won their 1A/2A Split Conference so either way they would get one of the #1-8 Seeds. Predict all you want, but they played East Surry, North Stokes and South Stokes relatively well. If they competed day in and day out they could compete consistently in NW 1A. Only seen them play 3-4 times, but they look like a solid group of players.
The Rankings are definitely flawed. Big Smokey/Little Smokey usually knock out a team who would have a better record. Happens every year .
Hiwassee Dam has a 4-1 Conference Record for the entire season...that's a joke, where as Swain who is a Big Smokey example has 12 game conference record of 6-6??? NCHSAA needs to figure out something better in the Smokey Conference because it's not comparable to other teams.

NCHSAA should also release more information to schools about what goes into the "Adjusted" Max Preps Rankings. Lincoln Charter and WS Prep are the best and have tough strength of schedule. They've flip flopped the past 3 years between rankings, Just Overall Record and Win %, to "Adjusted Rankings". Teams don't know how to schedule. For example a Bishop or Mt. Airy who play in a tough Conference, should they continue scheduling high seeded teams in 2A, 3A or 4A to improve over Strength of Schedule or schedule teams they can get Wins against??

NCHSAA shouldn't leave any grey area. Teams I'm sure schedule games before the Summer Meeting,b ut they have no idea how to schedule.

I agree about the Little Smoky. They have had great teams recently but that conference and the conference champ is often a joke. They might be middle tier in the Big Smoky on most seasons. There have been cases where they have produced great teams and that happened just recently. However the Hiwasse team will sneak into the playoffs with a subpar record. They have played a most teams in the Big Smoky close and beat R’ville but if they actually were in our conference their record would not be so decent. I just think they should combine them. They play a few subpar to crappy teams, get a conference title. They join the conference in other sports.

 

[ObserveAndReport]

I like the Smoky West and Smoky East model that was in place for a few years about 15 years ago. One big football conference solves non-conference scheduling woes, and two conferences/divisions that each have both football and non-football schools eases the problem of watering down the playoffs in other sports. And if you have the rare Little Smoky team like 09/10 Nantahala or 06 Hiwassee Dam that can go to Regionals, they'll still get their shot. If the WHC 1A teams were to be added to the SMC, that would work for two 7-team basketball leagues. Then the 2A WHC teams could go in to make the Mountain Six the Mountain Nine.