1A 1a Girls playoff projections

[bulldog nation2014]

Just looking around tonight and decided to do some of the playoff projections. I believe if the playoffs started tomorrow this would be the Top 14 seeds with the new playoff format. Still a lot of basketball to be played and some big games left. Just fun to look at.

1. Avery County
2. East Surry
3. Union Academy
4. Murphy
5. Albemarle
6. Allegheny
7. Hiwassee Dam
8. Lincoln Charter

2 seeds

9. Mount Airy
10. Cherokee
11. Mitchell
12. Langtree Charter
13. Graystone
14. Highlands


1 Avery County vs 32

16 vs 17

8 Lincoln Charter vs 25

9 Mount Airy vs 24


5 Albemarle vs 28

12 Langtree vs 21

13 graystone vs 20

4 Murphy vs 29



3 union Academy vs 30

14 highlands vs 19

6 Allegheny vs 27

11 Mitchell vs 22


7 Hiwassee Dam vs 26

10 Cherokee vs 23

15 vs 18

2 East Surry vs 31

 

[NWWatchdog]

Just wondering, how did you get Avery at #1 seed? They are currently ranked #2 in Maxpreps rankings.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Just wondering, how did you get Avery at #1 seed? They are currently ranked #2 in Maxpreps rankings.

I just used the last nchsaa adjusted rankings. Obviously if ES tops MA again I think ES will be the overall 1. Still a lot of movement will happen the last two weeks of the season.

You have Cherokee and Murphy still to play again, ES and MA to play again, Albemarle GS play again.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Just wondering, how did you get Avery at #1 seed? They are currently ranked #2 in Maxpreps rankings.

And to be honest after reading the seeding process again they set the 64 teams then split east and west so I’m not even sure for the West if that will be the top 8.

 

[NWWatchdog]

It'll be interesting to see what the new adjusted ratings look like for this week. I wish the NCHSAA would be more transparent with how they "adjust" from the original Maxpreps rankings.

 

[Heritage 84]

Avery girls have a big conference matchup with Mtn. Heritage tomorrow night at Avery. Mtn. Heritage girls are currently #1 in the state in 2A and #5 in the state overall. Although Heritage handled them easily at home in the 1st matchup, I expect this to be a very good game at Avery. If Avery picks up a win here by chance, they will most likely hold on to the top spot going into the playoffs They have a good strength of schedule for sure.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Avery girls have a big conference matchup with Mtn. Heritage tomorrow night at Avery. Mtn. Heritage girls are currently #1 in the state in 2A and #5 in the state overall. Although Heritage handled them easily at home in the 1st matchup, I expect this to be a very good game at Avery. If Avery picks up a win here by chance, they will most likely hold on to the top spot going into the playoffs They have a good strength of schedule for sure.

I believe you have a Cherokee and Murphy matchup Thursday as well as a East surry and Mount Airy matchup on the 15th. One thing for sure there are still a lot of big games to be played and a lot of movement can happen these next couple of weeks.

 

[KW23]

Alleghany(allegheny is county in virginia) girls still have to win some games to be considered as a 1 seed. They have to finish top 3 in their split conference and right now they are 4th. They have losses to wilkes central north wilkes. And west wilkes by like a total of 5 pts....and they have to play them all again so should be interesting.

 

[survivor 1110]

Avery girls have a big conference matchup with Mtn. Heritage tomorrow night at Avery. Mtn. Heritage girls are currently #1 in the state in 2A and #5 in the state overall. Although Heritage handled them easily at home in the 1st matchup, I expect this to be a very good game at Avery. If Avery picks up a win here by chance, they will most likely hold on to the top spot going into the playoffs They have a good strength of schedule for sure.

Avery girls have a big conference matchup with Mtn. Heritage tomorrow night at Avery. Mtn. Heritage girls are currently #1 in the state in 2A and #5 in the state overall. Although Heritage handled them easily at home in the 1st matchup, I expect this to be a very good game at Avery. If Avery picks up a win here by chance, they will most likely hold on to the top spot going into the playoffs They have a good strength of schedule for sure.

 

[survivor 1110]

That was a great game on Tuesday night. Both teams played their hearts out. There were big momentum swings in the game. I think if Avery would have hit open shots in the 4th, they would have won the game. But mh shot a season high 52 percent. Avery always seems to bring out the best in mh cause they know on any given night Avery can beat dem I was very impressed with Hannah Tipton and MacKenzie Franklin. They are great players.

 

[survivor 1110]

I just used the last nchsaa adjusted rankings. Obviously if ES tops MA again I think ES will be the overall 1. Still a lot of movement will happen the last two weeks of the season.

You have Cherokee and Murphy still to play again, ES and MA to play again, Albemarle GS play again.

Even though Avery lost to mh on Tuesday night. It might have not hurt Avery as much as you think. It looks like the top 2 NWC teams are on a collision course in the 3rd round based on the new playoff format. Avery deserves it after last year. They were the only team that could have challenged ma besides murphy

 

[NCprepbball]

Nick Stevens will have out his projections of what to possibly expect, this afternoon.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Even though Avery lost to mh on Tuesday night. It might have not hurt Avery as much as you think. It looks like the top 2 NWC teams are on a collision course in the 3rd round based on the new playoff format. Avery deserves it after last year. They were the only team that could have challenged ma besides murphy

Who did Avery lose to last year?

 

[mbdfan]

Who did Avery lose to last year?

They didn't make the playoffs. They should have made the playoffs no doubt but don't think they would've made much of a run, maybe a 3rd round team with a good draw.

 

[mbdfan]

With the adjusted Maxpreps rankings unless East Surry loses at home to Mount Airy they will probably be the #1 seed, with Avery #2, Murphy #3 and Union Academy #4.

Murphy still has to play a scrappy Robbinsville team and then the conference tourney which is also at Robbinsville, if the Lady Dogs were to lose one of those games Union might leapfrog Murphy again.

Avery and Murphy look pretty evenly matched on paper, East Surry has really come on strong and I think they're the favorites at this point, but a rematch with Mount Airy in the 3rd round of the playoffs will loom large. Cherokee will not be a team anyone wants to see and I think that would be a really tough 3rd round game for Avery if the brackets shake out that way.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

With the adjusted Maxpreps rankings unless East Surry loses at home to Mount Airy they will probably be the #1 seed, with Avery #2, Murphy #3 and Union Academy #4.

Murphy still has to play a scrappy Robbinsville team and then the conference tourney which is also at Robbinsville, if the Lady Dogs were to lose one of those games Union might leapfrog Murphy again.

Avery and Murphy look pretty evenly matched on paper, East Surry has really come on strong and I think they're the favorites at this point, but a rematch with Mount Airy in the 3rd round of the playoffs will loom large. Cherokee will not be a team anyone wants to see and I think that would be a really tough 3rd round game for Avery if the brackets shake out that way.

Albemarle 22-1 hasn’t been healthy since January 8th and still rolling. Had their 8th player break double digits in a win last night. Their only loss was to cox mill (3a). If they get healthy between now and playoffs they have a legit 7 players to deal with.

East surry was my pick in the beginning of the season. They have a solid squad and a tough team to play. I still think they are the team to beat.

MA is still solid and will be interesting in the playoffs.

I’m not sure on Murphy. Did they have a good player hurt or did they just click? It seems like all the sudden they went on a tear.

 

[NCprepbball]

I agree. I had E Surry winning the title at the beginning. As long as Sutphin stays healthy, I believe they win the 1A title.

 

[mbdfan]

I’m not sure on Murphy. Did they have a good player hurt or did they just click? It seems like all the sudden they went on a tear.

A bit of both. Murphy's only questionable loss was on the road to Hayesville. But Murphy were playing without their big Rogers in that game and were ice cold shooting that night to top it off.

Murphy's other three losses are to really solid teams. Freedom is great and would smoke any 1A team. Smoky Mountain is a good 2A team (they're first in their conference) and Murphy played them on the road after not playing a game in over three weeks. The third loss was to a good Lumpkin County GA team who are the 9th ranked 3A team in the state of Georgia.

 

[mbdfan]

I agree. I had E Surry winning the title at the beginning. As long as Sutphin stays healthy, I believe they win the 1A title.

They're the favorites but their margin for error is not what Mount Airy's was last year. If Sutphin has an off night against an Avery, Murphy, Mount Airy, Union Academy they can lose. Last year there was probably only 1 team in 1A that could've beat Mount Airy under any reasonable circumstance.

 

[bulldog nation2014]

UA don’t have a shot vs ES. Sorry we played ES before the season and I know they had some Gelling to do but ES is solid!!!!

 

[bulldog nation2014]

A bit of both. Murphy's only questionable loss was on the road to Hayesville. But Murphy were playing without their big Rogers in that game and were ice cold shooting that night to top it off.

Murphy's other 3 losses are to really solid teams. Freedom is great and would smoke any 1A team. Smoky Mountain is a very solid 2A team (they're first in their conference) and Murphy played them on the road after not having not played a game for over 3 weeks. The third loss was to Lumpkin County GA who are the 9th ranked 3A team in the state of Georgia.

Ok that’s what I was wondering.

 

[mbdfan]

UA don’t have a shot vs ES. Sorry we played ES before the season and I know they had some Gelling to do but ES is solid!!!!

Take off Union Academy if you like but it doesn't negate the point, which is that there are probably 4-5 teams good enough to win state this year under the right circumstances. Last year there were really only 2 and I don't think any 1A team this year is as good as Mount Airy and Murphy were last year.

 

[survivor 1110]

Who did Avery lose to last year?

They finished tied for 4th in their conference and they went by conference record over max prep rankings. So they were 10th in max preps rankings and had to sit at home. 8 of their losses were by 7 points or less. It was a joke. And the east Surry boys got screwed as well. You tell me how a 10th ranked team in the state who went to regional finals year before and gave ma all they could handle sits at home over teams with losing records

 

[survivor 1110]

Ok that’s what I was wondering.

Yeah Murphy has a great coach. I respect the new so much but I would love to see the 13 year streak end for the nwc it's a shame Cherokee and Murphy had to play each other two years in a row. Cherokee will be a scary matchup. They are faster than Avery backcourt but MacKenzie Franklin will dominate the paint. That game would be a chess game.

 

[survivor 1110]

Take off Union Academy if you like but it doesn't negate the point, which is that there are probably 4-5 teams good enough to win state this year under the right circumstances. Last year there were really only 2 and I don't think any 1A team this year is as good as Mount Airy and Murphy were last year.

If Avery plays as well as they did Tuesday night and shoots better. They will be contenders. I promise you

 

[survivor 1110]

UA don’t have a shot vs ES. Sorry we played ES before the season and I know they had some Gelling to do but ES is solid!!!!

That is not true they have a chance. They lost a good player but are still very good. They had a weak schedule but their is a reason they win by 40 and 50. Also east Surry is not unbeatable. Murphy Cherokee and Avery have a better backcourt and lots of players that MacKenzie Franklin for avery guards don't have much success and if Avery made it that far you would have to haul all of them seniors for avery out on a stretcher before they lose

 

[survivor 1110]

Albemarle 22-1 hasn’t been healthy since January 8th and still rolling. Had their 8th player break double digits in a win last night. Their only loss was to cox mill (3a). If they get healthy between now and playoffs they have a legit 7 players to deal with.

East surry was my pick in the beginning of the season. They have a solid squad and a tough team to play. I still think they are the team to beat.

MA is still solid and will be interesting in the playoffs.

I’m not sure on Murphy. Did they have a good player hurt or did they just click? It seems like all the sudden they went on a tear.

Albemarle 22-1 hasn’t been healthy since January 8th and still rolling. Had their 8th player break double digits in a win last night. Their only loss was to cox mill (3a). If they get healthy between now and playoffs they have a legit 7 players to deal with.

East surry was my pick in the beginning of the season. They have a solid squad and a tough team to play. I still think they are the team to beat.

MA is still solid and will be interesting in the playoffs.

I’m not sure on Murphy. Did they have a good player hurt or did they just click? It seems like all the sudden they went on a tear.[/QUOTEalbemarle is a good team with a fighting chance if they bring their a game]

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Just seen Nicks latest projections and tht east west line is very interesting. Could realistically see Bishop and Albemarle going east. As of right now in his projections you have bishop east and Albemarle being the eastern most west team with South Stanly going east in the 1a girls projections

 

[bulldog nation2014]

South Davidson also going east

 

[survivor 1110]

Just seen Nicks latest projections and tht east west line is very interesting. Could realistically see Bishop and Albemarle going east. As of right now in his projections you have bishop east and Albemarle being the eastern most west team with South Stanly going east in the 1a girls projections

Where are you getting these projections. Albemarle can beat Pamlico or Weldon I think

 

[survivor 1110]

Where are you getting these projections. Albemarle can beat Pamlico or Weldon I think

I wish east Surry would go east to make the east and west more balanced instead of 5 or 6 teams from the west being better than all the teams from the east

 

[bulldog nation2014]

Where are you getting these projections. Albemarle can beat Pamlico or Weldon I think

Nick Stevens does projections every year he is pretty close every year of course the last two weeks there will be movement. But with the new playoff rules it’s really interesting to see. Bishop east as a 16 seed Chatham central as a 2 seed in the east and south Davidson a 22 in the east along with South Stanly a 22 seed

 

[KW23]

His projections are wrong #7 alleghany will drop bc they are currently 5th in their conf. And they have to finish top 3 to get 1 seed.

 

[survivor 1110]

Nick Stevens does projections every year he is pretty close every year of course the last two weeks there will be movement. But with the new playoff rules it’s really interesting to see. Bishop east as a 16 seed Chatham central as a 2 seed in the east and south Davidson a 22 in the east along with South Stanly a 22 seed

We played all those teams in our playoff run 2 years ago. Beat south Stanley by 43 Chatham central by 31 and bishop by 23

 

[bulldog nation2014]

We played all those teams in our playoff run 2 years ago. Beat south Stanley by 43 Chatham central by 31 and bishop by 23

SS is not strong and never have been. Chatham seems to have a pretty good team this year. I haven’t seen them but know some of the teams they have played. Don’t think they are or should be a 2 but you win games you get the opportunity.

 

[survivor 1110]

His projections are wrong #7 alleghany will drop bc they are currently 5th in their conf. And they have to finish top 3 to get 1 seed.

If they are the top 1a team in that split conference they will be seeded as a 1 seed

His projections are wrong #7 alleghany will drop bc they are currently 5th in their conf. And they have to finish top 3 to get 1 seed.

No you are right my bad top 3

 

[survivor 1110]

SS is not strong and never have been. Chatham seems to have a pretty good team this year. I haven’t seen them but know some of the teams they have played. Don’t think they are or should be a 2 but you win games you get the opportunity.

Especially in the east lol

SS is not strong and never have been. Chatham seems to have a pretty good team this year. I haven’t seen them but know some of the teams they have played. Don’t think they are or should be a 2 but you win games you get the opportunity.

Especially in the east lol

 

[bulldog nation2014]

To me the interesting thing to watch is that east west line and how that plays out. It’s the first projection I have seen for 1a girls so of course there will be movement. Alleghany dropping would knock a east team down moving that line more West I believe.

 

[Heritage 84]

That was a great game on Tuesday night. Both teams played their hearts out. There were big momentum swings in the game. I think if Avery would have hit open shots in the 4th, they would have won the game. But mh shot a season high 52 percent. Avery always seems to bring out the best in mh cause they know on any given night Avery can beat dem I was very impressed with Hannah Tipton and MacKenzie Franklin. They are great players.

It was a very good game at Avery And Avery has a good team and should make a good playoff run, but Heritage is clearly the better team and has not lost to Avery in 8 years I believe. I think the biggest difference is the outside shooting of MH this year in the matchup. Heritage has 4 or 5 players that can knock down the 3 but Avery has to make most of their points getting into the lane. Nelson is very good at doing that I must say. Really enjoyed this matchup over the past few years. Avery should get 1 more shot at the Heritage girls in the conference tourney with this group of seniors. Should be a battle. Avery loses a lot after this year and will possibly fall back to middle of the conference next year. Congrats on the accomplishments of this senior group from Avery and to the MH girls that just reload every year it seems.

 

[TD-FridayNight]

Mount Airy's 2 loses came to a Va 4A Pulaski Co. & East Surry
As of the week ending 2/9/2019,I think Mount Airy the State Champions the last 2 years should be well in that top 8 sense NCHSAA Adjusted MaxPreps Ranking has them at #3.