Baseball 1A & 2A Baseball Playoff Standings as of Apr. 24

Discussion in 'Open Sports Discussion & Resources Forum' started by tarheelg, Apr 24, 2017.

  1. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    1 tarheelg, Apr 24, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2017
  2. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Thanks tarheelg for the effort in predicting brackets. Gave me some good reading and also know it took some time to come up with both brackets.

    Love where we live in the state of NC. Also have been pleasantly surprised by the ER baseball team so far this year. As a reward if they continue to do well looks like they may host to start state playoffs. Also if lucky enough, and seeds hold, in the 2nd round they would travel around 2 1/2 hours for a matchup between 4 from east and 5 from mideast. That is not a great reward for a conference winner, if it turns out that way and a long road to hoe yet, but in the new and improved seeding system that is the way it goes I guess.

    Keep up the good work tarheelg.

    It is appreciated.
     
  3. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Yes, long way to go though...going to be tough to beat Randleman again, and then there is the conference tournament...If ER & Rand. split the two regular season meetings, then whichever one gets further in conference tournament gets seeded in tier of 1 seeds...then if anybody but the 1 seed wins conference tournament, then there will be another tier of 2 seeds for conference tournament winners....of course not all conferences have a tournament, and you have to figure some conference regular season champions will win their tournaments, but maybe not as many as you might think, as if you're already locked into one of the top seeds, some coaches may choose to not burn out their pitching to win a conference tournament that would not help their seeding, other coaches may give it everything they have to try to win conference tournament, especially if you could jump from 12 or 13 seed up to 5 or 6
     
  4. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Oh the game this week between ER and Randleman will be very interesting. ER has 2 games left and Rand 2 1/2 so pitching could be very important if games are bunched up at the end of week because of rain.

    If fields are so wet the games are pushed to beginning of next week then you bump against conference tourney which brings pitching into the equation again. I posted in PAC6 thread that it would come down to last week way back at beginning of year. If ER does lose out on 1 seed they should host at least a first round game I think but 2nd round will still probably be a long bus ride.

    Going to be an interesting 2 weeks.
     
  5. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Hey tarheelg if ER/Randleman tied for reg season and both lose in semis of tourney who would get tier 1 seed?

    Conference tourney champ?

    Would ER and Randleman fall into big pile of wild cards then?
     
  6. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    If they split in regular season and both finish 9-1, then a coin toss or draw out of a hat would determine #1 seed for conference tournament....then I think the way it works is if they both lost in conf. tourn. semis OR if tournament could not be played due to weather, then that random draw would determine which team gets 1 seed from conference and the other would fall to tier of wild cards....if they both go 9-1 and neither one wins tournament, then i THINK the conf. tourn. winner still goes in tier of 2s, and coin flip winner goes in tier of 1s, and other goes in wild cards
     
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  7. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Thanks.

    That is the way I thought it would be determined but like you am not 100% sure exactly how new system works.
     
  8. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    I believe the conference tiebreakers really stay the same as they've always been, the only big difference is that in the past, the conference got a 1,2,3 seed (unless a split conference), and if the 1 or 2 from regular season won tournament, nothing changes, but if 3 or lower won conf. tourn. then that team became 2 and everybody else moved down a spot, meaning the regular season 3 dropped to wild card if somebody from below 3 won conf. tourn.....now there are no 3s at all and only a 2 if you win conference tournament (and were not the regular season 1)...makes dealing with split conferences for seeding a lot easier and makes potential seeding a lot easier in all leagues to just have one pool of at-large wild cards instead of having to have a bunch of one game playoffs for 2nd & 3rd, only for 1st if you don't have a conference tournament, also pretty sure the state has a rule to say that if you have a conference tournament and there is a tie, then you must have a draw to seed the tournament and have a one game playoff for a conference tournament seed, also anybody out there that cares: Don't forget that conference tournament wins and losses DO NOT affect a team's playoff reporting record, and that playoff reporting records in baseball, softball, soccer, etc. are 22 game record, so if a team plays 23 or 24 total games, then you will drop any non-conference games above 22, but you can never drop a conference game....so if a team goes 20-4 overall and 12-0 in conference will have reporting record of 20-2, but a team that goes 22-2 overall but 12-2 in conference will also have a reporting record of 20-2, and if those two are seeded in the same pod, then maxpreps rankings would break that tie, unless the two teams played head to head (and there are no other teams tied with them), then that goes before maxpreps rank....the big change I would like to see them make for next year is get rid of pods and just go back to seeding whole regions 1-32 like it was in 2015 and 2016
     
  9. york1313

    york1313 Active Member
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    It looks like Western Highlands, Smoky Mtn, Carolina, Tar Roanoke, N Central Athletic, Coastal 10, and Coastal Plains do not have conference tournaments according to some of their teams schedules. Does anyone know the conferences that do not have tournaments?
     
  10. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Think the pod system was adopted to get away from teams from same conference playing first round match ups.

    That has been true but an unforeseen, I believe, consequence has been the tremendous amount of travel for some teams caused by pod system. This appears to effect teams centrally located in the state the most.

    As I have stated numerous time on this board ER has been lucky to qualify for the state playoffs in baseball,football and basketball within the last calendar year. As I have also stated the school has traveled approximately 11 hours just in 1st round games.

    Now I ain't a mathematician but that is a little over 3 hour average, and that is just one way. By the time the athletes get home on a weeknight school is about to start for the next day?

    I know there are many more people smarter than me that could make the pod system work with less travel times.
     
  11. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Yes, that was the goal, but the assumption was made that teams in the same conference would all be in the same pod....this only happens teams in the very far eastern and western parts of the state, (and typically in the Triangle and Charlotte areas in 4A)...in the 1A & 2A many conferences are so spread out that teams may still get slotted against each other in the 1st rd because they're in different pods...another big potential problem with the pods of 1-16 and crossing over instead an outright 1-32 in the region is that a team that lost twice to a conference opponent (and finished below them) could host them in the playoffs....if they are both at-large teams, and higher up team has a below average overall record, and is in a more stacked pod, and the other team has a better overall record (or not necessarily, could be just a much weaker pod where 13-9 gets you a very good seed)....what I was meaning was that if we take away the distinctions of each conference getting a 2 and a 3, then the likelihood of first round playoffs games between teams from the same conference is drastically cut down without splitting the regions into pods
     
  12. NWWatchdog

    NWWatchdog Well-Known Member
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    While we would all like to create the "perfect" playoff formatting system, it's almost impossible to do. All of the systems have flaws. For example, in the old baseball system, conference seeds were predetermined and a bracket was available by midseason. You could already know by the end of April where you were likely going in the first round (unless you were a wildcard team). This also unfortunately produced first fround matchups where teams with 15-11 records would take on teams with 16-8 records while there would inevitably be a matchup of a 7-16 team v. a 9-10 team.

    The biggest negative of the pod system is longer travel. However, you (for the most part) have better matchups of higher seeds with better records playing lower seeds with worse records. The only exception to this will be the automatic #1 seeds from split conferences who will have a losing record, yet will have a top seed (see Mitchell Co with a 4-7 record, Wallace Rose Hill with a 6-10 record, or Alleghany with an 8-10 record).

    Some people argue that the pods should play within their respective 16 seeds, with winners playing in a regional championship. The negative to this is that often times 2 of the best teams will be in the same pod. Having East play Mid-East and West play Mid-West at least allows the option of the 2 best teams potentially playing in the regional finals (should the 2 best teams happen to be in the same geographic area).

    Personally, my biggest complaint is that a team with a losing record should NEVER host a 1st round playoff game. I understand that geographical constraints may limit who teams must play during the regular season, but there's no reason for a 4-7 team to host a home first round game. Just my 2 cents.
     
  13. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    I agree that every system will have drawbacks as well as positives.

    I know that if the teams are seeded by records then who or where they play would be arbitrary since the records are the deciding factors. The problem I have is when say a 21 seed team plays 5 hours from home against a 12 seed, for example, and the 13 seed with the same record is hosting a game against a 20th seeded team 45 minutes away from the 21. And none of teams are in same conference.

    What I am saying is some common sense might could be used in making some seeding decisions. Of course this would not fit in with a "pure" by the records seeding process. However strength of schedule is also not a factor in seeding either so teams with a weaker non conference end up with better numbers.

    Ain't nothing perfect but we can always try and find ways to make them closer to achieving that.
     
  14. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    I tried to imply in my last post that there's no way to use a formula like we have been for the last few years and automatically avoid conference rematches in early rounds, but like I said earlier, I really like what they did this year in eliminating 2 and 3 seeds from each conference...and that such a change was really all they needed, without going to the pods to split up each region....if they're trying to avoid conference opponents in first round, definitely play across pods if you're going to have pods....we saw in football a few years ago that playing within pods can make the state playoffs feel like a conference tournament in situations where a cluster of teams in same conference are in same pod...and by the way, I can't say that a team below .500 should never ever host a first round game...I would like to see it done less often, but you have to admit that over the last few years, they have made changes to not only avoid those really bad teams essentially making playoffs by default because of split conference rules hosting games but even making the playoffs, with last year's .340 win% rule, and now eliminating all automatic bids for anybody but conference regular season champs and conference tournament champs....with this system, if a team below .500 overall finds a way to host a first round playoff game, it will only be because they won their division of a split conference, AND MAYBE they played a brutal non-conference schedule, can't look past anybody....don't forget that in both 2015 (Huss over West Stanly) and 2016 (Dixon over North Johnston), a #32 seed beat a #1 seed in 2A
     
  15. CP16

    CP16 Well-Known Member
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    In 1A lower the amount of teams. Some have no business in the playoffs. I also like the SC model with double elimination pods. It rewards good teams, not just a team with one arm.
     
  16. NWWatchdog

    NWWatchdog Well-Known Member
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    Some have suggested going to a best 2/3 series each week. Playoffs would need to be shortened to 32 total teams instead of 64 and expand by 1 week. Not sure if that's viable. Similar option would be to shorten to 32 teams (16 from East, 16 from West), doing single elimination for first 2 rounds, best 2/3 for 3rd round, regional finals, and state finals.
     
  17. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Yes, the only way I see the powers that be going for fewer teams in the playoffs is if you get more actual playoff games....either starting best of three series a round or two earlier, and/or doing some groups of four in double elim like you have in college....and even then, the money going to the state and the schools still playing goes up, but does nothing for the middle of road or below average teams that used to make the playoffs and now stays home, not sure if any proposed changes will actually go into effect
     
  18. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    It will be hard next year for 4A and 1A to have 64 teams when there will only be 75-76 teams in each classification. I think You have to have 32 teams, or if you leave it like it is, 40 or 48 teams for playoffs for these 2 classifications next year.

    I think you will see the same trend in football too which is the NCHSAA money driver
     
  19. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    And I have a 4A bracket projections, but I will wait until after this weeks games to update and post what I have for you guys to take a look at.
     
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  20. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Will be keeping up with you guys. Your team has had a fine year and I am interested in seeing if they can make some noise going forward.
     
  21. york1313

    york1313 Active Member
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    I'm still seeing right at 100 teams for 1A next season. Are there 25 schools that don't have baseball programs?
     
  22. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    I stand corrected with 1A but I guess there are some more 1A teams that moved down than I thought or other schools are starting 1A
     
  23. tarheelg

    tarheelg Well-Known Member
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    Could be wrong but I thought they took all of the 1A schools that don't play football out of the equation when they did the realignment and put the bottom 20% in 1A, top 20% in 4A, and middle 30% groups in 3A & 2A...then the non-football 1As got added back in....I know that in 2A, there have been exactly 100 teams for the last four years, and there will be 116 for the next four years
     
  24. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    I have the 4A west done...a lot of conferences in 4A east do not play conference tournaments so that seeding won't be finished until later this week. Most western conferences play a conference tournament which could help some teams seeding if they happen to win a conference tournament.
     
  25. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    tarheelg I love your projections and have been reading them weekly. Lets me look and talk baseball even more. Have a question though.

    Usually PAC6 has Randleman/Trinity/Wheatmore go west while Eastern Randolph heads east.

    You have all of them in the mideast. Not sure how it will shake out but thought that was curious and wondered why you did it?

    Again keep putting it out and I will continue to read.
     
  26. wtxycolor

    wtxycolor Well-Known Member
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    South Robeson is now 7-12 with 2 games remaining (home games against Whiteville and South Columbus). Even with 2 losses South Rob will be in the mix for a spot at 7-14 (.333). One more win gets them to .380 overall. They already have defeated South Columbus once this season. IF South Robeson gets in, then could move a hot West Columbus team back to the East.
     
  27. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    Still some things could change in the 4A west with the CPC tournament winner taking the 1 seed if its West Forsyth, North Davidson, or Reagan. 4A East still has multiple conference still finishing conference play and I am not going to try to project wins/losses. With that being said, here is the 4A West Predictions. I will put their overall west seed in parenthesis.

    4A West
    1W (1) TC Roberson
    2W (2) Lake Norman
    3W (5) Providence
    4W (6) South Caldwell
    5W (7) Hough
    6W (9) Butler
    7W (10) Myers Park
    8W (14) Ardrey Kell
    9W (15) Alexander Central
    10W (17) East Meck
    11W (20) Charlotte Catholic
    12W (23) Olympic
    13W (24) McDowell
    14W (27) Mooresville
    15W (31) Hopewell
    16W (32) Mallard Creek

    Midwest
    1MW (3) Southeast Guilford
    2MW (4) Southwest Guilford
    3MW (8) West Forsyth
    4MW (11) AL Brown
    5MW (12) North Davidson
    6MW (13) East Forsyth
    7MW (16) Reagan
    8MW (18) Richmond
    9MW (19) Mount Tabor
    10MW (21) Porter Ridge
    11MW (22) Northwest Guilford
    12MW (25) Glenn
    13MW (26) Page
    14MW (28) High Point Central
    15MW (29) Davie
    16MW (30) Grimsley
     
  28. NWWatchdog

    NWWatchdog Well-Known Member
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    Isn't West Forsyth locked into the #1 seed for the CPC? There was a 3 way tie for 1st place in the regular season, but WF had a combined record of 3-1 between the tying teams, which should give them the tiebreaker. One of the other teams could get a 2nd tier automatic seed if they win the CPC tourney though.

     
  29. NCSU990

    NCSU990 New Member
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    In 1A, I'd imagine there will be lots of changes between the current projection and what will happen at the end of the week. A lot of teams that are on the playoff bubble in the west have some tough games this week. And there are teams in the east that could really move up. It wouldn't surprise me to see Roxboro, West Columbus, and possibly even Voyager move to the West.
     
  30. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    I talked with the West Forsyth coach last night and it was my understanding that who ever went the farthest in the CPC tournament of the 3 tied for 1st would be the 1 seed from the CPC.
     
  31. Sportsnut17

    Sportsnut17 Moderator
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    If weather forecast is correct some tournaments may not be finished. Rain today and Thursday, Friday.
     
  32. Eagles/Trojans13

    Eagles/Trojans13 Well-Known Member
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    That's true Sportsnut....if the CPC tournament gets cancelled, West Forsyth would be the 1 seed then from the CPC
     
  33. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    And ER would be PAC6 #1.

    Randleman may want to play in galoshes.
     
  34. Sportsnut17

    Sportsnut17 Moderator
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    I take it you beat Randleman Friday?
     
  35. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Nope. Ended up tied in regular season.

    ER won flip for #1 seed in conference tourney.
     
  36. coachtyson93

    coachtyson93 Well-Known Member
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    That is going to be a ride for wheatmore, but the fighting warriors might surprise people when landon is pitching.
     
  37. mh333

    mh333 Member
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    I have a question about the 1a? Why is union going to be the 5 seed in the mid east instead of the 4 in the east? Putting them east would make 4 conference "champions" on each side? instead of 5 and 3? Would it be the same for WRH? Just trying to get some clarification. Thanks
     
  38. thekidd12

    thekidd12 Well-Known Member
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    Dude ER went to First Flight in 1st round last year.

    First Flight!! You know where that is? Partly in Atlantic Ocean. Really.

    Now according to tarheelg there is a scenario where First Flight would come to ER this year in 1st round. Ironic huh? As I have said NCHSAA is working on things but 4 1/2 hour rides on weeknights is crazy.

    I also think Wheatmore and Randleman may be sent west as well as Trinity.

    Last year ER was only team sent east from PAC6.

    Far east. Thought I saw airplanes with zeroes on them?
     
  39. tigertown21

    tigertown21 Well-Known Member
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    Anyone interested in the Head Coaching job for the Rams' Baseball team next season, the Rams are taking application until May 9. Please contact Jerome Hunt, AD at Jerome.Hunt@robeson.k12.nc.us or Call Purnell Swett High at 910-521-3253.
     
  40. Thunder_struck8712

    Thunder_struck8712 Well-Known Member
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    East wilkes throws a kink into the playoffs coming from the 8 seed to win the MVAC tourney
     

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